There’s only two days left after this one to review the financial value of Magic 2015! In today and tomorrow’s article, I’ll be discussing the last of the Rares and Mythics (they should all be spoiled by Thursday, hopefully). In Friday’s article, I’ll have a recap of my thoughts on Magic 2015, give my thoughts on foils that will have exceptional value (more than 2x the value of the non-foil version of that card), and discuss cards I think have long term implications.
How I review:
Starting Price: The first price we assign to the card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price (Short Term): The price I believe the card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic 2015.
Future Price (Medium Term): The price I believe the card will be at by the time the next set (Khans of Tarkir) comes out.
Future Price (Long Term): The price I believe the card will be at a year from now, when M16 is released.
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $2.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
This card just absolutely wrecks decks that attack with 3+ creatures a turn. I compare this very favorably to Evacuation, which saw a good amount of Standard play whenever it was legal. Aetherspouts just creates a lose-lose situation for your opponent (they sacrifice their creatures to the bottom of the deck, or 1+ draw steps). I expect this to see a good amount of Standard play, as it may be one of the best Wrath effects in the format.
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $1.50 Future Price (Long Term): $1.50 |
There were a lot of cards spoiled from the variant versions (Game Day Promos, prerelease promos, etc), and this is one of those cards. (In fact, most of the cards today were spoiled based on these alternate image cards.) Goblin Rabblemaster has a huge advantage over almost every other type of Goblin-generating card that’s come before it, in that it doesn’t force itself to attack each turn. This means that you can pump out 1/1 creatures every turn without having to suicide your 2/2 creature on the turn (or the turn after) it comes into play. You also get a 1/1 Goblin the turn you cast Goblin Rabblemaster (since it triggers at the beginning of combat), so effectively you’re getting a three power’s worth of creature for three mana.
I also think that making 1/1 haste creatures each turn in a non-Tribal environment isn’t exactly going to win contests in the current Standard environment, so I’ll keep Goblin Rabblemaster as a “watch” for now. Let’s see what Khans of Tarkir adds to the Goblin arsenal before making a big judgment call on Goblin Rabblemaster’s future.
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Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
It was bulk in Scars of Mirrodin, and it’s bulk here as well.
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Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Spoiled as being in one of the Intro decks or Booster Battle Pack. Bulk Rare.
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1.50 |
Reprint from Commander2012, and spoiled via the token reveal on DailyMTG.com today. Green doesn’t generally get a lot of flying creatures, so Hornet Queen is a rarity – six power worth of flying, deathtouch creatures (spread out over five creatures) for seven mana. While this won’t be an auto-include in all green decks, I can absolutely see a metagame where you’d want to drop down five defender/threats late-game to still an opponent’s entire army, kill planeswalkers, or just kill your opponent.
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Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1.50 |
The Buy-a-Box promo. I’ll compare this to two previously-printed cards: Plague Wind (to which this is a strict upgrade) and Overwhelming Forces (hits only one opponent, but costs one less and draws you cards). I’d say that In Garruk’s Wake will eventually be seen as the best of these three cards, because wiping out all opposing planeswalkers is no joke. Plague Wind is a $3 rare due to Commander play, and I think that In Garruk’s Wake will eventually get to that price tag – it’ll just take 2+ years for that to happen. For the short term I believe we’re looking at a $1 bulk rare with a lot of future upside potential.
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Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
One of the Intro Deck Rares. Bulk Rare. Too small a body, and gives the opponent too many choices to shut it off.
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $1.50 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
The body and ability are both right, except there’s not exactly a deck that was calling for this effect. At only a single red mana to activate, this is a combo card that may see play down the road. If it drops to $1, probably worth picking up a playset. Otherwise, kind of a bulk rare at the moment.
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Starting Price: $0.75 Current Price: $0.75 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Spoiled as being in one of the Intro Decks or Booster Battle Pack. Bulk Rare.
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Starting Price: $0.75 Current Price: $0.75 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Spoiled as being one of the Intro Deck Rares. Clone effects aren’t auto-desired at this point, now that there’s roughly one or two per block. This one is underpowered, so therefore I see it as a bulk rare.
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Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Probably too slow to see serious Standard play (since you have to skip two turns of attacking and blocking once it dies), and not a combo enabler (since you have to wait a turn for it to return after it dies), but it is still a huge threat on the board at seven power for six mana. I could see this being the choice of midrange and ramp decks as a potential finisher, since it’ll continually come back after most removal spells and trade with most other kill conditions. Still, it’s also an Intro Deck Rare, which will put a ton of extra copies into the environment and keeping the price down for the long term.
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Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Bulk Rare. It’s an Intro Deck Rare (meaning a lot of extra copies out there!), but it’s also an Angel and a card that is conceivable as a one-of in control decks in Standard. Seven mana to gain 10-15 life and get a 4/4 flyer isn’t a bad deal, but it’s conditional enough that you probably don’t want this as a four-of at any point.
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Starting Price: $0.75 Current Price: $0.75 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Spoiled as being in an Intro Deck or a Booster Battle Pack. Bulk Rare, but again a card that will conceivably see play in Standard as a one- or two-of in certain decks. It’s happened in the past that this was a fringe-playable Standard card, and Standard is slower enough now that a card like this has more of a chance to shine.
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Starting Price: $0.75 Current Price: $0.75 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk Rare. Might be a slightly-more desired bulk rare since it’s a Dragon, but likely it’s just not going to get there. Also an Intro Deck foil rare, so lots of extra copies will exist!
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Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $5 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $5 |
A card custom-bulit for a Superfriends style deck, or any casual deck that runs lots of Planeswalkers. Likely playable in Standard, since the ability makes it realistic to hit ultimates if you’re devoting your deck to playing and protecting Planeswalkers. Huge casual appeal, and a card not likely to be reprinted anytime soon, make this a very desirable long-term prospect.
PACK VALUE
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M) / 80
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other players. So I’m omitting the value of any Rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any Mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
47 out of 53 Rares spoiled! Here’s the ones $2 and up.
Aetherspouts: $2
Avacyn, Guardian Angel: $3
Battlefield Forge: $3
Caves of Koilos: $3
Chasm Skulker: $2
Chief Engineer: $2.50
Chord of Calling: $15
Genesis Hydra: $2.50
Goblin Rabblemaster: $2
Hushwing Gryff: $4
Llanowar Wastes: $4
Ob Nixilis, Unshackled: $4
Phyrexian Revoker: $2
Preeminent Captain: $3
Return to the Ranks: $2
Shivan Reef: $6
Sliver Hive: $4
Spirit Bonds: $2
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth: $12
Waste Not: $10
Yavimaya Coast: $4
Yisan, the Wanderer Bard: $2
Total Rare Value: $94
Here’s all of the Mythic Rares (except the ones under the $4 threshold).
Ajani Steadfast: $20
Chandra, Pyromaster: $8
Garruk, Apex Predator: $30
Liliana Vess: $8
Nissa, Worldwaker: $25
Perilous Vault: $10
Sliver Hivelord: $15
Soul of Innistrad; $5
Soul of New Phyrexia: $15
Soul of Shandalar: $6
Soul of Theros: $10
Soul of Zendikar: $5
The Chain Veil: $5
Total Mythic Value: $162
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($94) + 1M ($162)) = $352
$350/121 = $2.89 value per pack, or $104.04 per box.
See you tomorrow for more discussion about M15!
Previous Daily Financial Value Of Magic 2015 Articles
6/24 – Sliver Hive; Soul of Innistrad
6/26 – Avacyn, Guardian Angel; Crucible of Fire; Perilous Vault; Phyrexian Revoker
6/30 – Chief Engineer; Chord of Calling; Garruk, Apex Predator; Necromancer’s Stockpile