Hello everyone and welcome back to the Financial Value of Khans of Tarkir! There were a bunch of exciting cards spoiled since yesterday, including another Rare I feel is being very undervalued right now. Let’s take a look at the new cards!
How I review:
Starting Price: The first price we assign to the card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price (Short Term): The price I believe the card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic 2015.
Future Price (Medium Term): The price I believe the card will be at by the time the next set (Khans of Tarkir) comes out.
Future Price (Long Term): The price I believe the card will be at a year from now, when M16 is released.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
I’ve been a fan of all of the other Ascendancy cards so far. Not so much a fan of this one; both effects are okay, but this is the first Ascendancy so far where one of the abilities (+1/+1 counters on an empty board is) not great.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
I’m being conservative on Ghostfire Blade, but I believe this card is really high on the power-level scale. Initial reactions are completely disregarding
this as “this shouldn’t be Rare” or “this is just in the set as a way to pump morph creatures.” I looked at this card, and I immediately thought two
things:
1) This is extremely powerful in Affinity. This may be the best equipment behind Cranial Plating for that deck. The extra two toughness over Bonesplitter,
at no additional cost, is huge.
2) The block structure is Large Set / Small set / Large set. It’s been said that the draft formats will be: KTK/KTK/KTK, then Fate Reforged/KTK/KTK, and
then 3rd Set/3rd Set/Fate Reforged. In order for the second set to be drafted with the first and third sets (independently), it needs to have a color
breakdown that plays well with at least a wedge set. I’m fairly certain that the second set will be a focus on Colorless cards (Ugin, and potentially
Eldrazi), and this is a plant for cards that are going to be in that set.
The $2/$3 price I see on this is very conservative. This may dip short term, but I believe this will be a staple in Modern Affinity decks and has a good
chance of making a run in Standard if the second set of this block is indeed a focus on colorless creatures/spells.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $5 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
The immediate comparison for this card is Summoning Trap. Here’s the differences:
1) Summoning Trap is an Instant. See the Unwritten is a Sorcery. (Advantage: Trap)
2) See the Unwritten digs down eight cards. Summoning Trap digs seven. (Advantage: Unwritten)
3) You could sometimes cast Summoning Trap for free. (Advantage: Trap)
4) See the Unwritten puts seven cards in your graveyard, which is relevant for delve. Summoning Trap put them on the bottom of your library. (Advantage:
See the Unwritten).
5) See the Unwritten can sometimes put two creatures into play (Advantage: See the Unwritten).
In the end, the biggest difference between the two cards is Instant speed versus Sorcery speed. See the Unwritten might be good environmentally due to
delve (and especially if I’m right about Eldrazi being in the second set), but Summoning Trap is likely the better card in a vacuum. Given that Summoning
Trap is more-or-less a bulk Rare, I don’t hold out high hopes for See the Unwritten.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $6 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
Caveat: I could be completely off on this card. However, I don’t think it’s quite good enough to make the grade. If you don’t get the raid trigger to go off, this is a very mediocre creature for Standard. The three power is a huge difference maker (seven-turn clock versus five-turn clock), and the +one life ability isn’t good enough on a five-mana 3/4 creature to carry it on its own. It comes down to this: is a conditional Broodmate Dragon going to be worth as much as Broodmate Dragon (prorated for Mythic Rarity, versus Rare Rarity)? I’m betting no – I think this is slightly not good enough. (Again – this is a rare case where I can pinpoint that one point of power making the difference in my eyes between this being a really good card and a semi-potentially good card that I’m down on).
Editor’s Note: Don’t forget, you can support Evan and The Magic Show on Patreon!
Pack Value!
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any Rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any Mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
18 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Bloodstained Mire: $20
End Hostilities: $3
Flooded Strand: $25
Ghostfire Blade: $2
Mardu Ascendancy: $2
Polluted Delta: $30
Utter End: $6
Windswept Heath: $20
Wooded Foothills: $20
Total Rare Value: $133
9 out of the 15 Mythic Rares have been spoiled!
Narset, Enlightened Master: $6
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker: $25
Ugin’s Nexus: $4
Wingmate Roc: $6
Total Mythic Value: $79
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($133) + 1M ($79) = $345
$345/121 = $2.85 value per pack, or $102.60 per box.
So yeah, not only is this set looking very strong so far, the hints laid out so far (Colorless second set, Zendikar-Fetches in the third set) make me
really excited for this entire block!
See you all tomorrow!