The entire Khans of Tarkir set has been spoiled! Today’s article is broken into four sections:
1) A discussion of the last few rare that hadn’t already been spoiled.
2) A list of the cards that have changed in value since yesterday.
3) A list of the foil cards of note that you should keep an eye out for!
4) The final initial pack value for Khans of Tarkir.
How I review:
Starting Price: The first price we assign to the card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price (Short Term): The price I believe the card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic 2015.
Future Price (Medium Term): The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Fate Reforged).
Future Price (Long Term): The price I believe the card will be at a year from now, when the next fall block is released.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
If this self-milled, it’d be extraordinarily strong for delve decks, and I’d be calling this a chase rare. Since it only mills opponents, it’s going to be a strong casual favorite. It triggers off lands (which is unusual for a card of this type), comes down on the first turn, and works well in multiples. I’d put this under “watch,” because there’s the potential that Altar of the Brood ends up tournament playable, in the same way that happened to Mesmeric Orb.
CHANGES SINCE YESTERDAY
:
Dig Through Time: $2 – Control players are loving delve, and this card in particular.
Foil Cards of Note:
These are the foil cards that are going to pull a premium for the foil versions of the card. Typically, this is $1+ for Commons, $2+ for Uncommons, and
more than 2x non-foil price for Rares/Mythics.
Common:
Bloodfell Caves cycle (all ten Common Refuge-style Lands): $1 each – Guildgates have been a solid $1.50-$2 but those rose there from $1. In a vacuum, these
are strictly better than guildgates, but they have the disadvantage of not being named after the guilds of Ravnica. Solid, will see a ton of Standard and
Casual play, just like the Zendikar Refuge cycle did.
Disdainful Stroke – $1- Will go higher than this in the long run, as people realize how applicable it is in the new Standard.
Embodiment of Spring – $1 – A worse Sakura-Tribe Elder (costs mana and taps to activate), but still mana ramp, and a good early-game defender due to being
0/3.
Savage Punch – $1 – You won’t hear me say this often at all, but this card will be $1 solely based on the (immediately) iconic artwork, regardless of any
future playability. See also: Totally Lost (started at $1 back when Gatecrash first hit).
Scout the Borders – $1 – A worse Grisly Salvage is still playable in this format thanks to delve.
Singing Bell Strike – $1 – Great blue removal. Stalls creatures early game, so by the time that creature can be untapped (six mana!), that creature will
effectively have been taken out of the game. Essentially, blue gets Pacifism.
Tormenting Voice – $1 – Foil Wild Guess started at $2 in M13 before it was reprinted in M14. This is an easier-to-cast Wild Guess.
Treasure Cruise – $1 – Delve cards are going to be really powerful in multiple formats. May go higher than this, since you’ll reliably be able to draw
three cards for at most 2U by turn 4 in most formats.
Uncommon:
Arc Lightning – $2 – This is where Flames of the Firebrand started when it was first spoiled a few core sets ago. Right now, this card is really good in
Standard because of Goblin Rabblemaster. The only other foil version of Arc Lightning is a promo card, so it’s not super-easy to get copies of it in foil.
Abzan Charm – $3 – All five of the Charms are playable, but this one is especially strong due to having a mode that is useful at a null board state (Sign
in Blood).
Despise – $2 – Less than it was during New Phyrexia, but still an above-average value for a foil Uncommon.
Frontier Bivouac (and the other 4 tri-lands) – $4 each – The Shards of Alara iteration of these lands are all $4 and up, and Shards foils were in extremely
high supply because of the ill-fated experiment with Premium Foil Booster Packs. Good for Standard and Commander play.
Hordeling Outburst – $2.50 – Extremely efficient token creature generation, and in a tribe that can benefit from the creature type. Will likely go higher
than this.
Jeskai Charm – $2 – The minimum starting price for any of the charms in this set.
Mardu Charm – $3 – All three abilities are good, especially the instant-speed Duress mode.
Murderous Cut – $5 – This card is insanely good in Standard, Modern, and Legacy. Seriously being undervalued for the non-foil version right now as well.
This is the best black common/uncommon single-target removal spell since Dismember.
Suspension Field – $2 – While not as good as Journey to Nowhere, it’s still going to be a playable Standard card.
Stubborn Denial – $3 – Force Spike (for non-creatures) that turns into an absolute Counterspell if you have a fatty on the board. May see Modern and Legacy
play.
Sultai Charm – $3 – Incredibly versatile. Probably as good as Abzan Charm. Potentially better in Modern than Standard, due to the first mode working best
in a non-Khans environment.
Temur Charm – $2 – This and Jeskai Charm aren’t bad, but they are likely the weakest of the Charm cycle.
Tomb of the Spirit Dragon – $2 – Huge for casual play. Does anyone want to still argue that the second set in this block won’t center around a colorless
theme? Will be Standard playable if the colorless cards in set #2 are playable.
Winterflame – $2 – Playable, modal removal. Somewhere in the power level of Fire/Ice and Electrolyze, as a point of reference.
Rare:
Bloodsoaked Champion – $15 – Turning into the chase non-fetchland of the set.
Bloodstained Mire: $50 – Foil fetchlands are going to start out at a really high price, because the previous foil versions are all in the hundreds (if not
multiple hundreds) of dollars. I think they may drop some but not a whole lot because of Legacy demand. See Conspiracy Brainstorm, which is holding steady
at $60 despite being a common.
Butcher of the Horde – $20 – If Bloodsoaked Champion isn’t the non-fetchland chase rare, Butcher is. They both go in the same deck, regardless.
Flooded Strand: $75 – Against a $300 Onslaught Foil and $250 Judge Foil price point.
Hardened Scales – $4 – Will be huge with Commander players, even if it doesn’t hit in competitive play.
Polluted Delta – $100 – Against a $400 Onslaught Foil and $300 Judge Foil price point.
Windswept Heath: $50 – See Bloodstained Mire.
Wooded Foothills – $50 – See Bloodstained Mire.
Mythic:
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker – $60 – Because foil planeswalkers command a premium.
Sorin, Solemn Visitor – $50 – see Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker.
PACK VALUE!
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any Rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any Mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
At this point, all 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Bloodsoaked Hero: $5
Bloodstained Mire: $20
Dig Through Time: $2
End Hostilities: $3
Flooded Strand: $25
Ghostfire Blade: $2
Mantis Rider: $3
Mardu Ascendancy: $2
Mindswipe: $2
Polluted Delta: $30
Siege Rhino: $4
Utter End: $6
Windswept Heath: $20
Wooded Foothills: $20
Total Rare Value: $163
All 15 Mythic Rares are spoiled!
Clever Impersonator: $15
Empty the Pits: $5
Narset, Enlightened Master: $6
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker: $25
Surrak Dragonclaw: $15
Wingmate Roc: $6
Total Mythic Value: $104
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($163) + 1M ($104) = $430
$430/121 = $3.55 value per pack, or $127.80 per box.
Then let’s plug in foil values:
Odds listed of getting a foil for M15 are 1 in 67 cards. There are 540 cards in a box (15 cards per pack, 36 packs per box), which means you’ll average 8
Foils per box. This would break down (on average) to:
5 Commons
2 Uncommons
1 Rare/Mythic
Throwing out all bulk values, here’s the value of each of these cards (see the foil section for exact pricing):
Common – $17 in non-bulk cards. 101 total commons, so $0.17 in value per average Common Foil
Uncommon – $53.50 in non-Bulk cards. 80 total Uncommons, so $0.67 in value per average Uncommon Foil.
Rare – $364 (in premium cards, listed above) + $76 (Cards that are $2+ for non-foil versions that will be essentially double their non-foil price for the
foil versions) = $440
Mythic – $110 (the two planeswalkers) + $98 (double the price of non-Foil non-Bulk Mythics) = $208
2R + 1M= $1088 / 121 = $8.99, so the Rare/Mythic foil adds $8.99 in value to an average booster box.
5 Commons @ 0.17 each = $0.85 in value added per box in high-desire Common Foils
2 Uncommons @ $0.67 each = $1.34 in value added per box in high desire Uncommon Foils
1 Mythic/Rare @ $8.99 each is just that, added per box in Rare/Mythic Foils.
Total Foil Value added per box: $11.18, for a grand total initial value of $138.98 per booster box.
While obviously some prices will drop between now and a month from now, we’d have to see a 21% drop in value across the board to hit the current $110
market value on Booster Boxes. Given that I’ve been pricing cards extremely conservatively (erring towards underpriced rather than overpriced), I think
that’s the biggest drop we’ll see.
I hope everyone has gotten a lot from these articles, and I look forward to seeing you next year for the financial value of Fate Reforged!