Welcome back to my Daily Financial Value of Fate Reforged article! There are three new cards to look at today, so I’ll also take a look at commons and uncommons of note a day early, since there’s room/time to do so today!
How I Review
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Fate Reforged.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set comes out. (Dragons of Tarkir).
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now, when the Winter 2016 expansion is released!
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $3 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death is just a beating. Three mana for a 3/2 first strike creature is decent on a red aggro curve, but the ability to get back creatures (or cheat them into play) at a very low cost is huge! In Standard, Alesha will be getting back Monastery Mentor and Goblin Rabblemaster. In Modern, we’re looking at Snapcaster Mage, Monastery Swiftspear, Delver of Secrets, Young Pyromancer, Scavenging Ooze, Voice of Resurgence, Goblin Guide, Eidolon of the Great Revel, Spellskite, Aven Mindcensor, Kor Firewalker, Orzhov Pontiff, Qasali Pridemage, Fulminator Mage, and Geist of Saint Traft (among others) that Alesha can return (or cheat) into play.
I’m also beginning to think that Faithless Looting is going to see even more play in Modern than it ever has previously, between Jeskai combo, Delve, Reanimator, and potential red decks that can dump into the graveyard, and then use those cards as a resource (U/R Snapcaster Mage, etc)
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk rare.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Bulk, but it’s a large dragon with casual-friendly abilities (vigilance, Frost Titan), so it’ll have an audience keeping it from completely bottom-of-the-barrel pricing.
Commons and Uncommons of Note
Battle Brawler: Ahead of the curve as a 3/2 first-striker for two mana.
Humble Defector: Potential combo implications with Jeskai Ascendancy decks.
Reality Shift: The Pongify/Rapid Hybridization variant for this set.
Valorous Stance: Plays both offense and defense. Versatile, and should be a staple in Standard.
Wild Slash: Staple red burn for Standard, may bleed into Modern because of the damage prevention nullifying.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/80.
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
33 out of the 35 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death: $3
Crux of Fate: $2
Frontier Siege: $2
Mardu Strike Leader – $2
Monastery Siege: $2
Soulflayer: $3
Total Rare Value: $22
9 out of the 10 Mythic Rares in Fate Reforged have been spoiled!
Brutal Hordechief: $10
Monastery Mentor: $30
Warden of the First Tree – $10
Total Mythic Value: $123
In addition, the five Khans fetchlands are going to be featured in Booster Packs in the land slot. See the the previous articles for the math on this but:
If the Khans Fetchlands appear 2x per Land sheet, they add $45 in value to each Fate Reforged box.
If the Khans Fetchlands appear 1x per Land sheet, they add $22.50 in value to each Fate Reforged box.
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($44) + 1M ($123) = $167
$161/80 = $2.09 value per pack, or $75.24 per box without Fetchlands.
With Fetchlands appearing at 10 per 121 packs opened, this is a $120.24 value per box.
With Fetchlands appearing at 5 per 121 packs opened, this is a $97.74 value per box.