It’s the end of the first week of Dragons of Tarkir previews! Today’s article will cover all cards spoiled yesterday and today – due to flight issues and weather, I wasn’t able to post up my article yesterday, sorry! Anyhow, we have a ton of cards to get through, so let’s dive right in!
How I Review:
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Dragons of Tarkir.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Magic Origins aka Magic 2016) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (Remember: new block
structure! Big set / Small set + Big set / Small set is the new schedule.)
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Silverblade Paladin-lite. Silverblade Paladin hit the $6-$8 mark, but it was much easier to soulbond than it is to make sure that you have a Warrior in play. On the other hand, there are a LOT of good Warriors right now in Standard (especially post-Dragons), and giving two creatures double strike (itself naturally + one other) is a very powerful ability.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $5 Future Price (Short Term): $6 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
Modern playable (Burn), gets around Leyline of Sanctity (doesn’t target), and can play ramp in a pinch (RG, Explore + burn for three). Standard playable as well, even though it’ll be a bad Skullcrack a lot of the time.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $3 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $5 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
Currently very undervalued. It’s Eternal Witness that is bigger and has an evasion ability! The cost on this is right, and I see it seeing play a bunch in Standard.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $15 Future Price (Medium Term): $8 Future Price (Long Term): $6 |
Okay, so the obvious comparison here is to Bogardan Hellkite. Dragonlord Atarka can’t hit players and doesn’t have flash, but it has trample and a much larger body (8/8). Dragonlord Atarka lives in an era where seven-mana creatures are playable in Standard and also lives in an era where Whip of Erebos exists. For both of these reasons, I expect a lot of people to at least try out Dragonlord Atarka. It will also be popular with the Commander peoples.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $8 Future Price (Short Term): $6 Future Price (Medium Term): $5 Future Price (Long Term): $5 |
Might not have a place in Standard, but the abilities (shutting off your opponent’s ability to respond on your turn + lifelink and uncounterability) are nice. If ramp goes more towards White than Red, I think Dromoka will see a spike in interest.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $5 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
I don’t think the “lose 10 life” ability on Dragonlord Kolaghan will be relevant in serious play. I don’t think that giving all your other creatures haste is super-relevant at six mana either (past attempts have not been too successful when attached to creatures). So basically you’re ending up with a 6/5 haste creature for six mana, which while it isn’t bad, isn’t fantastic in today’s Standard metagame given the other choices.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $12 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
4/4 for four isn’t huge in Standard anymore. You need non-creature spells to get Ojutai Exemplars up-and-running, which isn’t always going to be a sure thing. While this creature is versatile, I don’t think it’s worth the $10 price tag it’s currently commanding.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $8 Future Price (Short Term): $10 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
The value of Shorecrasher Elemental is tied very closely to Thassa and Master of Waves being Standard-legal right now. As a stand-alone creature, it’s a poor Aetherling substitute. As a devotion-enabler, it’s top-notch. This is a card that you can bank will plummet in value once Theros block is no longer Standard-legal though, so be careful not to be stuck with Shorecrasher Elemental for the long term.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
The weakest of the three commands spoiled so far. All four effects are decent, but none of them are ones that you’d want to pay anywhere close to five mana to get (Boomerang, Negate, Bile Blight all sit at two mana). Might be played due to versatility, but not due to sheer power level.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
See Isamaru, Hound of Konda – except there are other two-power creatures at one mana these days. It is a Warrior for the Warrior decks, so that will help the value if Warrior decks become a thing (which between this and Goblin Rabblemaster, R/W,or R/B warriors might end up being a thing).
Changes Since The Last Article
Dragon Tempest: From $1 to $1.50 – Going market price. More playable dragons = more power level to this card.
Narset Transcendent: From $30 to $50 – We sold out of our initial allotment for the amount of product we’re opening in under twelve hours. We might see if
we can open more product. I believe in Narset. Others don’t – so either Narset will be one of the five most powerful planeswalkers ever, or Narset will be
a big disappointment.
Radiant Purge: From $1 to $1.50 – As more and more playable Gold creatures are spoiled, the value of this card keeps going up. May be maindeck playable at
this point.
Silumgar’s Assassin: From $0.75 to $1 – Slight market value adjustment.
Thunderbreak Regent: From $4 to $5: Slight adjustment to market value here as well.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
21 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Arashin Foremost: $2
Atarka’s Command: $5
Den Protector: $3
Ojutai’s Command: $6
Stratus Dancer: $2
Sunscorch Regent: $2
Thunderbreak Regent : $5
Total Rare Value: $36
9 out of the 15 Mythic Rares have been spoiled!
Dragonlord Atarka: $10
Narset Transcendant: $50
Ojutai Exemplars: $10
Total Mythic Value: $107
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following
(2R ($72) + 1M ($107) = $179
$179/121 = $1.48 value per pack, or $53.28 per box.
This is a great place to leave the pack value so far, given that we have two more commands, one more planeswalker, one more Dragonlord, and over half the
rares/mythics left to be spoiled from Dragons of Tarkir. This might be the first block in a long time where every set holds value from start to finish!
See you all next week!