We’ve had a huge card revealed since yesterday, and there is no time to waste. Let’s dive in!
How I Review:
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Dragons of Tarkir.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Magic Origins aka Magic 2016) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (Remember: new block
structure! Big set / Small set + Big set / Small set is the new schedule.)
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Going to be eternally popular for causal play, though it’s a little too situational for Standard play. Might be a metagame choice as a one or two of in certain decks, but it is definitely not an auto-include, due to it being a bad draw against creature-light decks.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Nifty ability, but nifty does not equal playable or popular. Bulk rare, though there might be a slight uptick if people are hellbent on playing every dragon they can get their hands on.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $30 Current Price: $35 Future Price (Short Term): $50 Future Price (Medium Term): $50 Future Price (Long Term): $60 |
Narset is one of the best planeswalkers ever printed. No hyperbole here – it’s in the sweet spot at four mana, it’s almost impossible to remove from the
board the first turn it comes down (seven loyalty with the +1 ability), and most of all, it’s going to be played in Legacy and Modern. There have been few
planeswalkers that made the leap into all three formats. Here’s the list, in the order of the amount of play they see in Legacy:
Narset combos amazingly well with Sensei’s Diving Top, because the worst case scenario is that you put SDT on top of your deck, and then use
Narset to draw it. Narset also works amazingly with Brainstorm, both for the first and second ability.
Way back when, I assigned three price tiers for planeswalkers, and the price tiers were directly tied to the number of formats in which the card was
playable. Planeswalkers that were Standard/Modern/Legacy playable were the most valuable initially, and would hold the most value long-term. I know many
people are reticent to pick up planeswalkers that debut at $30, but I truly believe that Narset will only go up in price from here.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.75 Current Price: $0.75 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Very conditional removal tied to very conditional evasion. Doesn’t seem like it’s going to make an impact at all.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $4 Future Price (Short Term): $6 Future Price (Medium Term): $5 Future Price (Long Term): $5 |
4/4 for four mana with evasion (flying) and an upside ability to discourage your opponent from killing it/making them pay for killing it? Will be a staple in Standard, will potentially cross-over to Modern as well. Just a really solid card.
Updates From Yesterday
Ojutai’s Command: From $4 to $8 to $6 – Currently at $6. That’s the market value that E-bay is settling on for this card for now.
Radiant Purge: From $1 to $1.50 – It appears that there are going to be a lot more playable multi-colored creatures in this set, which makes it more
valuable for Standard play.
Shaman of Forgotten Ways – From $5 to $8 – Again, an adjustment to market price.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
16 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Ojutai’s Command: $6
Stratus Dancer: $2
Sunscorch Regent: $2
Thunderbreak Regent : $4
Total Rare Value: $19
3 out of the 15 Mythic Rares have been spoiled!
Narset Transcendent: $35
Total Mythic Value: $51
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($38) + 1M ($51) = $39
$89/121 = $0.735 value per pack, or $26.46 per box.
The value of a booster box went up to almost 2.5x the value of a booster box yesterday, thanks to Narset Transcendent and the strength of Ojutai’s Command,
Thunderbreak Regent, and Shaman of Forgotten Ways. I’m still very bullish about this set (Sarkhan has yet to be spoiled, along with four Commands, and four
Elder Dragons – and yes, I know there has been a foreign spoiler for the R/B one, but it was mistranslated twice on Reddit already, so I’m waiting for the
English spoiler on that card to go up tomorrow before I comment on it!).