There’s one day left until the entire spoiler for Dragons of Tarkir is put up on the WOTC visual spoiler. Multiple rares and mythics were spoiled overnight and today. I’ll take a look at all of them, plus give some updates on pricing from yesterday!
How I Review:
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Dragons of Tarkir.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Magic Origins aka Magic 2016) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (Remember: new block
structure! Big set / Small set + Big set / Small set is the new schedule.)
|
|
|
Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
A powerful effect for Commander play but a huge mana sink at nine mana. Too expensive for Constructed; most decks would rather just kick Rite of Replication and get five copies of the best creature in play (including their own) for nine mana, rather than having to be at the whim of what your opponent controls.
|
Commune With Lava |
|
Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
So both red and black get Braingeyser(ish) in this set! Commune with Lava gives you one turn to cast all of the spells you “draw” – so almost every time (unless it’s sudden-death on your turn), you’re going to be casting it at the end of your opponent’s turn, and then dumping as many cards as possible into play (or casting them). In a Burn deck, this could be backbreaking – even at five mana (3RR), you’re probably getting a land and two business spells out of Commune With Lava. The drawback on Commune With Lava is significant (you have a one turn window to play the cards you exile), but the unconditional card-drawing that this gives red is pretty unparalleled for mono-colored red decks.
|
|
|
Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
And on the flip side of Commune With Lava, you have Damnable Pact. This is truly Braingeyser, with one rider – it attaches “lose X life” to the card drawing. So here’s a question – is this better or worse than Braingeyser? I’d argue that this card is actually better than Braingeyser! Braingeyser is obviously better if you never plan on targeting your opponent, but there have been plenty of decks throughout Magic’s history that would have loved to have had a mono-black X kill spell like this instead of having to run Stroke of Genius or Braingeyser. Damnable Pact is extremely versatile; 3BB to draw three cards and lose three life is on par with what you’d expect to pay these days for mono-black card drawing, but this really start getting scary in, say, a midrange black deck that uses this to draw 3-4 cards midgame, and then uses the next Damnable Pact as a fireball for 9-10 a couple of turns later.
The existence of Nykthos makes me think that Damnable Pact might give Mono-Black Devotion decks a lot more reach in Standard once Dragons hits. It doesn’t hurt that Erebos, God of the Dead shuts down G/W Mastery of the Unseen decks, making this an even better metagame choice. Even if your opponent gains 1283957293875 life from Mastery, you still have the ability to use Damnable Pact to deck them, instead of going after their life total!
|
|
|
Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $3 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
Solid charm with no spectacular effect, but all the modes are relevant. Should see Standard play, may see board play in Modern.
|
|
|
Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Dungeon Geists were a thing (especially when Spirit decks were popular), and Icefall Regent is along the same lines of playability. Five mana is a lot more than four in a blue deck, but Icefall Regent pseudo-protects itself, and it has one more power than Geists.
|
|
|
Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $4 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
This is a really, really interesting card. It can be backbreaking in the earlygame, since it can easily get to a huge lore count for most Jeskai decks. Lategame, it’s not a dead draw on the board because it has the ability to give itself counters for 2W. I cannot overstate how important this is. While it’s not optimal to topdeck this in the lategame with an empty hand, often cards like this are completely dead draws at that point in the game. Myth Realized has the rare ability to work best early or lategame, and it should see play in multiple formats (including Legacy, where a bunch of people are excited about putting it into a Landstill shell).
|
|
|
Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
There’s a lot of excitement about playing Surrak with Hero’s Blade. You essentially get an eight-power haste creature for four mana that gives other creatures you control haste each turn. Even without Hero’s Blade, Surrak plus one other creature is generally going to start giving things haste in most green decks. While I’m not super-excited about a 5/4 creature for four mana, and while I’m not super-excited about formidable creatures/effects in general, I think Surrak’s haste-giving ability is going to end up making himself, or your next creature, a huge hasty creature pretty reliably.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
42 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Arashin Foremost: $2
Assault Formation: $2.50
Atarka’s Command: $5
Avatar of the Resolute: $2.50
Damnable Pact: $2
Den Protector: $2
Haven of the Spirit Dragon: $4
Icefall Regent: $2
Ire Shaman: $2
Ojutai’s Command: $6
Stratus Dancer: $2
Total Rare Value: $67
All 15 Mythics have been spoiled! Here are the ones $4 and up!
Deathmist Raptor: $7
Dragon Whisperer: $6
Dragonlord Atarka: $10
Narset Transcendent: $50
Ojutai Exemplars: $10
Sarkhan Unbroken: $30
Total Mythic Value: $155
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($134) + 1M ($155) = $289
$289/121 = $2.39 value per pack, or $86.04 per box.
Join me tomorrow when I discuss the last few rares in the set, plus go over the foil values of the good commons and uncommons!