Here’s a dirty secret of mine: I wish there were fewer casual reprints.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for the abolishment of the reserved list, and I love it when competitive staples like Thoughtseize and the fetchlands show up
in new sets, but between Commander releases, core sets, and a spring reprint set like Conspiracy or Modern Masters, we’re currently getting thirty or forty
casual staples reprinted every year.
This creates a financial disconnect between the casual and competitive worlds of Magic collecting. Once a competitive player understands how set rotations
work, she or he can build an excellent long-term collection that is fairly resilient to reprints. A small handful of cards will be reprinted and lose value
each year, but most of them are somewhat protected by scarcity (the cards reprinted at mythic in Modern Masters didn’t lose any value, nor do judge foils)
or demand (any tournament staple reprinted in a Standard set is suddenly of interest to a whole new group of players). The occasional widespread Stifle or
Wurmcoil Engine reprint isn’t an issue for players whose collections keep rising in price, and it’s a nice reprieve for players looking to get into Eternal
formats for the first time.
Wizards of the Coast doesn’t treat casual staples with the same measured conservatism. Cards are reprinted again and again and again until the market is
completely saturated. This is great for players just discovering Commander – who wants to pay $10 for a Sol Ring? – but it starts to get frustrating pretty
quickly after that. While your competitive friend’s Wastelands keep going up in price, that sweet playset of Sun Titans you traded for back when they were
$10 are each getting cheaper and less special with each passing reprint. Not only does it make casual players skittish about trading their unused Modern
staples for exciting Commander cards, but it makes the casual formats more homogeneous.
As a speculator, this set has made me re-think my position on casual penny stock rares. Did you go deep on Cathars’ Crusade or Rite of Replication? Oops.
If we’re getting both a Commander set and a spring reprint set every year now, we’re going to have to be much more careful with what we hold over the long
haul. For example, three the cards I recommend as long-term casual pick-ups just last week were reprinted in Commander 2014: Sphinx of
Uthuun, Crypt Ghast, and Cyclonic Rift.
At any rate, don’t take my rant as dislike for the product. Commander 2014 encompasses five interesting, well-designed decks, and I can’t wait to get my
hands of them. Are any of them automatic pick-ups at retail like Mind Seize was? Which cards should you pre-order? Which should you hold off buying until
next year? Let’s find out, starting with –
The Reprints
MSRP for this crop of Commander decks is $34.99, up $5 from last year. That might help prevent some of these reprints from tanking completely, but a large
portion of this set’s value is going to come from the returning cards regardless. I wish I could provide you with the pre-reprint retail value for all of
these cards, but instead I’m going to use the current price for the cheapest pre-C14 edition of the card. This should give us a rough estimate for the
long-term upside present in these decks, sorted by price:
Forged in Stone
- Skullclamp – $6
- Pearl Medallion – $6
- Grand Abolisher – $5
- Martial Coup – $4
- Sun Titan – $3
- Emeria, the Sky Ruin – $3
- Gift of Estates – $3
- Decree of Justice – $3
- Sol Ring – $3
- Adarkar Valkyrie – $2
- Twilight Shepherd – $2
- Serra Avatar – $1.50
- Silverblade Paladin – $1.50
- Loxodon Warhammer – $1.50
- Sword of Vengeance – $1.50
- Mobilization – $1.50
- Cathars’ Crusade – $1.50
- Flickerwisp – $1
- Oblation – $1
- Ghost Quarter – $1
- Temple of the False God – $1
- Spectral Procession – $1
- Argentum Armor – $1
- True Conviction – $1
- Mentor of the Meek – $0.75
- Sunblast Angel – $0.75
- Sacred Mesa – $0.75
- Marshal’s Anthem – $0.75
- Kemba, Kha Regent – $0.50
- Celestial Crusader – $0.50
- Nomads’ Assembly – $0.50
- Geist-Honored Monk – $0.50
- Requiem Angel – $0.50
- White Sun’s Zenith – $0.50
- Swiftfoot Boots – $0.50
- Strata Scythe – $0.50
- Bonehoard – $0.50
- Moonsilver Spear – $0.50
- Armistice – $0.50
Despite being equipment themed, the white deck brings very little to the table in terms of valuable reprints. Skullclamp and Pearl Medallion are the best
of them, but I doubt either will survive the semi-permanent 50-70% value hit that is coming to nearly every Commander 2014 reprint. Grand Abolisher, who
was pricey mostly due to the fact that M12 was a poor selling core set, could lose 75-80% of its value. Sun Titan will probably drop to $2 – there’s only
so far he can fall, after all. Adarkar Valkyrie, Twilight Shepherd, Cathars’ Crusade, Nomads’ Assembly, and Oblation were all penny stock picks that I had
liked, but at this point I’m staying away for at least a year.
Estimated 2015 retail value for Forged in Stone reprints, excluding bulk rares: $19
Peer Through Time
- Sapphire Medallion – $10
- Thran Dynamo – $6
- Stroke of Genius – $5
- Rite of Replication – $3
- Worn Powerstone – $3
- Nevinyrral’s Disk – $3
- Sol Ring – $3
- Steel Hellkite -$2
- Lorthos, the Tidemaker – $2
- Artisan of Kozilek – $2
- Cyclonic Rift – $2
- Fog Bank – $1.50
- Frost Titan – $1.50
- Deep-Sea Kraken – $1.50
- Everflowing Chalice – $1.50
- Ixidron – $1
- Ghost Quarter – $1
- Sphinx of Magosi – $0.75
- Sphinx of Jwar Isle – $0.50
- Phyrexian Ingester – $0.50
- Sphinx of Uthuun – $0.50
- Hoverguard Sweepers – $0.50
- Distorting Wake – $0.50
- Cackling Counterpart – $0.50
- Swiftfoot Boots – $0.50
- Infinite Reflection 0 $0.50
Peer Through Time contains three of my favorite long-term Commander specs: Ixidron, Rite of Replication, and Cyclonic Rift. While this deck will likely
provide enough Ixidrons to go around, Rite and Rift have wider applications in the world of Commander. Both are still likely to be fine pick-ups in a few
months should they drop below $1, but I doubt that will happen – the blue deck is by far the weakest, so each individual card is less likely to go all the
way to zero. The biggest financial hits in this deck will come from Sapphire Medallion and Thran Dynamo, both of which could drop in price by quite a bit.
I see the Medallion settling in around $3-$4 and Thran Dynamo at $2-$3.
Estimated 2015 retail value for Peer Through Time reprints, excluding bulk rares: $15
Sworn to Darkness
- Grave Titan – $8
- Abyssal Persecutor – $6
- Jet Medallion – $6
- Drana, Kalastria Bloodchief – $3
- Worn Powerstone – $3
- Sol Ring – $3
- Black Sun’s Zenith – $2.50
- Bad Moon – $2.50
- Reaper from the Abyss – $2
- Profane Command – $2
- Shriekmaw – $2
- Crypt Ghast – $1.50
- Dread Return – $1.50
- Mutilate – $1.50
- Magus of the Coffers – $1.50
- Disciple of Bolas – $1
- Dregs of Sorrow – $1
- Sudden Spoiling – $1
- Liliana’s Reaver – $1
- Pestilence Demon – $1
- Promise of Power – $1
- Ghost Quarter – $1
- Nantuko Shade – $0.75
- Crypt of Agadeem – $0.75
- Lashwrithe – $0.75
- Bloodgift Demon – $0.75
- Skirsdag High Priest – $0.50
- Vampire Hexmage – $0.50
- Nekrataal – $0.50
- Pontiff of Blight – $0.50
- Butcher of Malakir – $0.50
- Aether Snap – $0.50
- Swiftfoot Boots – $0.50
I was all-in on Crypt Ghast and Grave Titan as long-term specs, but this reprint scuttles that plan. Grave Titan will probably stick around in the $4-$5
range, but I’d be shocked if any of the other cards here stay above $3. Abyssal Persecutor and Drana, Kalastria Bloodchief are only this expensive because
Zendikar Block happened a while ago – trading floor demand has never been that great for them, so they have far to fall. It’s also worth noting here that
Ghost Quarter is present in all five decks, so there are more than enough copies going around to satiate Modern demand now. If you were holding on to any
extra copies, dump them immediately.
Estimated 2015 retail value for Sworn to Darkness reprints, excluding bulk rares: $18
Built From Scratch
- Wurmcoil Engine – $20
- Goblin Welder – $8
- Chaos Warp – $8
- Solemn Simulacrum – $6
- Ruby Medallion – $6
- Caged Sun – $4
- Sol Ring – $3
- Reliquary Tower – $2.50
- Steel Hellkite – $2
- Bogardan Hellkite – $2
- Palladium Myr – $1.50
- Everflowing Chalice – $1.50
- Tuktuk the Explorer – $1
- Blasphemous Act – $1
- Darksteel Citadel – $1
- Great Furnace – $1
- Ghost Quarter – $1
- Temple of the False God – $1
- Myr Battlesphere – $0.75
- Hoard-Smelter Dragon – $0.50
- Pentavus – $0.50
- Bosh, Iron Golem – $0.50
- Word of Seizing – $0.50
- Magmaquake – $0.50
- Starstorm – $0.50
- Swiftfoot Boots – $0.50
- Jalum Tome – $0.50
- Trading Post – $0.50
- Spine of Ish Sah – $0.50
Built From Scratch provides the best value of the five decks. Wurmcoil Engine is the heaviest hitter in the entire set, and while I expect the reprint to
settle in closer to $8 than $20, it will still end up as the most expensive returning rare in Commander 2014 by far. Goblin Welder, Solemn Simulacrum, and
Chaos Warp are fine secondary prizes, and I can’t see any of them dropping below $3 each. Caged Sun and Reliquary Tower are likely going to stick around
the $1 mark regardless, and I’d expect Ruby Medallion to maintain at least a $2 price tag.
Estimated 2015 retail value for Built From Scratch reprints, excluding bulk rares: $24
Guided By Nature
- Skullclamp – $6
- Immaculate Magistrate – $5
- Imperious Perfect – $5
- Joraga Warcaller – $4
- Priest of Titania – $3
- Praetor’s Counsel – $3
- Sol Ring – $3
- Emerald Medallion – $3
- Ezuri, Renegade Leader – $3
- Wren’s Run Packmaster – $2.50
- Beastmaster Ascension – $2.50
- Drove of Elves – $2
- Rampaging Baloths – $2
- Overwhelming Stampede – $1.50
- Elvish Archdruid – $1.50
- Oran-Rief, the Vastwood – $1.50
- Predator, Flagship – $1.50
- Sylvan Safekeeper – $1
- Essence Warden – $1
- Crystal Vein – $1
- Ghost Quarter – $1
- Primordial Sage – $1
- Whirlwind – $1
- Collective Unconscious – $1
- Wellwisher – $1
- Soul of the Harvest – $0.75
- Tornado Elemental – $0.75
- Wolfbriar Elemental – $0.50
- Silklash Spider – $0.50
- Terastodon – $0.50
- Fresh Meat – $0.50
- Swiftfoot Boots – $0.50
- Seer’s Sundial – $0.50
- Gargoyle Castle – $0.50
All of the Commander 2014 decks synergize well, but Guided By Nature is the most linear of the five. I run a similar sort of thing in 10-Ticket Commander
on MTGO, and it’s pretty vicious in 1v1 combat. I’ll be interested to see how Guided By Nature sells compared to the other four – if I were looking to
build a good Commander deck from scratch, this is probably the one I’d pick, but it isn’t a great deck to cannibalize for existing Commander decks. Unless
you want to play elf tribal, there isn’t much here. At any rate, I’d expect a similar 50-60% loss in value for these cards across the board. I also
wouldn’t be shocked if Emerald Medallion ends up at $1 while the others stay at $2-$4 – green has better options for acceleration, but most of the other
colors don’t.
Estimated 2015 retail value for Guided by Nature reprints, excluding bulk rares: $17
The New Cards
This is why we’re here. Every Commander set thus far has had at least one brand new Eternal staple, and I don’t think the 2014 edition will be the first
exception to that rule. Unless I specifically mention Legacy or Vintage going forward though, you should assume that each review applies to Commander play
only. It takes A LOT to make a splash in Legacy, and I’ll shout it from the rooftops when I think there’s a chance.
There are also a lot of cards in this set that basically have the text “spend eight mana: win the game.” There are already a couple hundred Commander cards
out there that do that, and more are printed in every set. Commander is a splashy format, but even 100-card decks only have room for a couple of these
haymakers. Anything over four or five mana is going to have to be truly exceptional to get my attention.
New Uncommons Found in Multiple Decks
Myriad Landscape – $1
If Myriad Landscape didn’t say ‘basic’ on it, you could use it to get a couple of shocklands and we’d be talking about a heck of a card. It’s certainly
fine in a mono-colored control deck, but I’d rather just run a bunch of untapped basics a lot of the time. It’ll see some play, but it’s not an
auto-include.
Commander’s Sphere – $0.50
Isn’t this what we all wanted the clan banners to be in Khans of Tarkir? Regardless, Commander’s Sphere isn’t as much of a staple as Command Tower. It’s
especially bad in a mono-colored deck that can’t abuse it. If you’re running three or more colors though? Yes please! This card isn’t going much higher
than $0.50, but it’ll trade well enough. Stick it in your binder if you aren’t going to play with it.
Assault Suit – $0.50
Assault Suit is one of those cards that’s going to be awesome every time it sees play, but I doubt I’ll find room for it in any of my decks save the ones
that are dedicated to abusing equipment. If you want to kill someone really quickly with general damage, this is a great way to do it, but the cast + equip
cost isn’t cheap.
Arcane Lighthouse – $0.50
My first thought after seeing this card was that our long Bogle nightmare might be nearing an end. Nope – none of these cards are Modern legal, of course,
so Arcane Lighthouse is mostly going to be bugging Uril players until the end of time. Cards like this and Homeward Path are great in mono-colored decks,
but I rarely have room for them when I’ve got two or more colors of mana to support. Regardless, there’s not much to see here from a financial perspective.
Unstable Obelisk – $0.50
I’ve run Spine of Ish-Sah in many decks, especially artifact-based strategies, so I’m no stranger to paying way too much mana to destroy something. The
fact that this ramps you at the same time is quite nice as well. I doubt I’ll have room for this in most of my Commander decks, but in something recursive
and red? Sign me up!
Loreseeker’s Stone – $0.25
There are easier ways to draw three cards, even in colors that suck at drawing three cards. Pass.
Forged in Stone
Containment Priest – $15

It has been a while since Maverick was taking all comers at Legacy opens. In fact, very few decks in the format play white right now. I doubt Containment
Priest will change that all by itself, but I do expect it to start showing up in more than a few scattered sideboards. Sneak Attack? Show and Tell? Natural
Order? Reanimate? (Some of the cards in) Dredge? Nope, nope, and nope – not until you kill Containment Priest, at least. This isn’t the format-warper that
True-Name Nemesis felt like last year, but she’ll make an impact regardless. I expect her price to settle in somewhere between $6-$10 over the next year.
Nahiri, the Lithomancer – $10
Stoneforge Mystic is quite the Legacy card, but her ascended form isn’t going to see any Eternal play. In Commander, however, she fills a niche that people
have been clamoring for since the format was created. Khemba, Kha Regent (or, possibly, Isamaru, Hound of Konda) were the best ‘equipment deck’ generals
previously, but Nahiri, the Lithomancer is the undisputed champion now. I see her settling into the $3-$4 range over the short term, but that’s no slight
on her power level. The white deck is good and Nahiri is narrow – two factors that should keep her price fairly low. There’s a chance that all of the
planeswalkers will stay in the $10 range, of course, but I’m betting against it.
While Nahiri is very good at one specific thing, Hallowed Spiritkeeper is great at everything. Want to build around a bunch of tokens? Looking for a
creature to sacrifice and reanimate? Just want to block and get some value? Hallowed Spiritkeeper does it all. I’ve seen some talk of this card showing up
in Legacy Death & Taxes or even in Vintage Manaless Dredge, but I think we’re just going to have to accept that this is a strong causal card and
nothing more. Hallowed Spiritkeeper should settle in the $2-$3 range, but I expect it’ll trade quite well at that price.
The real test for Masterwork of Ingenuity will be whether or not there is sideboard room for it against Batterskull in Legacy. The fact that it costs one
mana is a big deal for Trinket Mage toolboxes, and it’s quite the blowout in very specific situations. Predicting this to make an impact in Eternal play
feels a little optimistic to me though, and even if that does happen, $6 is the absolute maximum that such a narrow card will command. If is a Legacy card,
expect it to stick around $5. Otherwise, it’ll drop to $2.
Fell the Mighty – $1
Fell the Mighty is the perfect wrath for a token brew as well as any small white equipment-based Commander deck. It should trade well at $1-$2, and it’s
being underrated right now.
Jazal Goldmane – $1
Jazal is an auto-include in any Commander swarm strategy. While he doesn’t give your army trample, the fact that he provides so much lategame punch while
also giving you a 4/4 first striking body for just four mana is awesome. I love any card that can attack well, block well, and win the game from basically
any board position. The white deck might not have the best stable of new cards, but it certainly has the deepest.
Comeuppance – $1
Comeuppance is a blowout and I absolutely love it. Earlygame, you get attacked by a couple of creatures and this will kill them out of nowhere. Lategame,
someone swings for the win and you just…don’t let them win. I love cards that speed up games of Commander, and this one is as close as white is going to
get to something like Grab the Reins or Insurrection. I’m pretty sure that Comeuppance is a future $2-$3 format staple, though it might sit at a buck until
people figure it out.
Angelic Field Marshal, Angel of the Dire Hour, Benevolent Offering, and Deploy to the Front – $1
Future bulk rares.
Estimated 2015 retail value for new Forged in Stone cards, excluding bulk rares: $18
Peer Through Time
Teferi, Temporal Archmage – $10
Teferi is powerful on the right board, but I’m not sure he’s going to make the cut in most of my blue Commander decks. The ultimate is fun but unrealistic.
The card selection is nice, but it’s not great for a six-drop. The untapping is by far the most intriguing ability, but it’s only going to be absurd on
board where you’re already ahead. Unlike the other planeswalkers in Commander 2014, however, the blue deck is pretty awful outside of Teferi. That should
keep him up the $6 range regardless.
I’m not saying that Intellectual Offering is Legacy playable, but I’m a little surprised that I haven’t heard people discussing it yet. You certainly don’t
want to let your opponent draw three cards when one of them might be Force of Will, but against a non-blue deck this is a possible combo enabler. It’d be
completely broken if it untapped all of your lands too, of course, but as we recently learned with Jeskai Ascendancy, untapping a bunch of permanents at
once is not to be underestimated. There may not be a way to make this card work, but I expect people to try. If it doesn’t work though, we’re looking at a
bulk rare.
Reef Worm – $1.50
Much like Hallowed Spiritkeeper, I expect Reef Worm to see a lot of play thanks to its versatility. Reef Worm is an awesome sac enabler for UB graveyard
decks, but it’s still quite good when you just play it as a rattlesnake card to protect against wraths and random attackers. Blue decks generally need time
to get going though, so I can certainly see myself running this in many different builds. Future $2-$3 card.
Stitcher Geralf – $1
Stitcher Geralf mills your opponent, mills yourself, and makes Zombies. If you’re running any kind of UB or Mimeoplasm-style deck, you’re going to want
him. Of course, you’re paying eight mana before anything happens, and this is the sort of slow durdly wrath-prone thing my graveyard-based decks are
already full of. Geralf will see play, and he’ll probably end up in the $1-$2 range, but he’s certainly replaceable.
Aether Gale, Domineering Will, Well of Ideas, Crown of Doom, Stormsurge Kraken, Breaching Leviathan, Dulcet Sirens – $1
Future bulk rares. The blue deck is not very good.
Estimated 2015 retail value for new Forged in Stone cards, excluding bulk rares: $9
Sworn to Darkness
Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath – $10
If your Commander group has endless hours filled with board stalls, you probably want Ob Nixilis as your commander. The emblem is good but its four turns
away at least, and Ob’s +2 ability doesn’t really do anything. The demon at -2 is fine, but that seems more like a secondary option for when you really
need the defense. Ob Nixilis is at his best in a deck that can abuse his sac outlet, but in that case I’d rather just rock Ghoulcaller Gisa as my
Commander. I expect we’ll mostly see Ob as a mediocre supporting cast member in the $3 range.
Malicious Affliction – $3
This card is playable without the morbid trigger and truly excellent with it. The fact that it makes another copy (that has to be countered separately) is
crucial, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Malicious Affliction starts showing up in Legacy. Regardless, it’s both a Commander and Cube staple. $3 is the bottom
of the market for this card – I expect it to end up in the $5-$6 range. Yes, I would trade a copy of Ob Nixilis for this straight up.
Ghoulcaller Gisa – $2
Do you want to make a lot of zombies? You don’t? How sad, because Gisa wants to make a lot of zombies, and she’s going to do it even if you don’t want to
join in the fun. Much like Stitcher Geralf, things are probably going well if you can get a couple of activations off this, and she’s going to die on sight
a lot of the time. Gisa is very powerful when she does get going though, and she’ll maintain her $2 price tag at least.
Spoils of Blood – $1.50
This card is one of the best arguments I can think of for increasing the size of Commander decks to 150 or 200 cards. At 100 cards, I’m probably not going
to run anything that doesn’t kill a bunch of stuff, fix my mana, draw me cards, or synergize with whatever my plan is. That doesn’t mean that Spoils of
Blood isn’t a great card – for a single mana, you can go to town after a big enough wrath. I just have no doubt it’ll always get cut before the final draft
of my decks. Oh well. Future $1 rare.
Flesh Carver – $1
Flesh Carver is everything I want in a sac outlet. Two mana is a little expensive, I suppose, but the fact that this guy has intimidate means that you can
make him a pretty formidable attacker pretty quickly. Beyond that, your worst-case scenario is a 2/2 for three followed by a free 2/2. A three-drop that
attacks, blocks, enables combos, and is a bad removal target? That’s quite solid. Future $2-$3 card.
Wake the Dead, Infernal Offering, Necromantic Selection, Overseer of the Damned, Demon of Wailing Agonies, Raving Dead – $1
Future bulk rares.
Estimated 2015 retail value for new Sworn to Darkness cards, excluding bulk rares: $11
Built from Scratch
Daretti, Scrap Savant – $20
Haven’t you always wanted to run Goblin Welder as your Commander? Daretti is the next best thing. I like build-around-me Commanders – Nahiri and Daretti
are my two favorites from this go-round – and I’m already excited to put Magic’s first goblin planeswalker into action. The fact that Daretti can come into
play and weld it up on turn 4 is great – in fact, there’s a shot that Daretti will see play in Legacy for that very reason. I used to be a WelderMUD player
myself, and the fact that Daretti costs four isn’t that big a problem. These decks run City of Traitors, Ancient Tomb, and Mox Diamond already, so you’re
really looking at getting him out and active on turn 2 or 3.
Even still, I don’t see Daretti maintaining a $20 price tag – or anything remotely close. WelderMUD is a deck that needs tons of reserved list cards to
function, including many of the most expensive lands and artifacts in the format. Going out to the store and buying a couple of Daretti decks isn’t going
to be an issue for the people who can afford to play with him in Legacy. He may hit $20 in a few years when this round of Commander decks are long out of
print, but until then we’re talking about a $6-$7 card.
Dualcaster Mage – $15
Is Dualcaster Mage a Legacy card too? It’s not out of the question, especially if Treasure Cruise continues to dominate the format. I wouldn’t be shocked
if this ends up in burn deck sideboards at least. Beyond that, Dualcaster is a fair way to hate on any crazy one-sided instant or sorcery that might end up
taking over the format at some point. Cards like this are great hedges against the future – as spells keep getting better, so will Dualcaster Mage.
In Commander, Dualcaster is a stone cold staple. The card is awesome in Cube too. The only reason this won’t maintain its price tag is because the rest of
the red deck is also amazing, and WotC will keep reprinting these just like they did with the Grixis deck last year if the overall value of the good
singles ends up at some crazy number. Even still, there’s a reasonable shot that Dualcaster doesn’t ever go below $10. This card is the real deal.
If Feldon were black instead of red, I could see him staying at $3-$4. As-is, most red decks aren’t built to abuse an ability like this, so Feldon,
Daretti, Bosh, or Slobad are going to have to be your general. Combine that with the overall absurdity of the red deck and I can see Feldon dropping down
toward $1 – he’s simply too narrow.
That said, Feldon of the Third Path is one of the saddest, most evocative Magic cards I have ever seen. I mean, holy crap, it tells a story all by itself –
the title, the art, the ability, the flavor text. If this isn’t art, I don’t know what is.
Scrap Mastery – $3
Scrap Mastery is a Living Death but for artifacts! Much like Feldon, this is an awesome build-around-me that some decks are going to love. People will try
to break this in Legacy, but I don’t see it happening – artifacts aren’t as ubiquitous or power as creatures in general, and five is a lot to pay for a
spell in Legacy. Based on Commander play alone, this is probably a bulk rare simply because of how narrow it is. It’s quite powerful though.
Volcanic Offering – $2
At first glance, I was ready to call Volcanic Offering Legacy playable. As a four-for-one, it certainly would have been. Your opponent can choose the same
targets as you though, so it’s only a two-for-one in a 1v1 game. Not bad, but not good enough for Eternal play. This is my favorite of this cycle in
Commander, though I still expect it’ll fall down to a buck before long.
Flamekin Village – $2
Forget about the Elemental clause – in a red deck, this is a better Hall of the Bandit Lord. Flamekin Village will probably drop down to a buck thanks to
market saturation, but it’s a reasonable long-term pickup that might even have some Legacy impact down the line. I know Travis Woo tried really hard to get
Hall of the Bandit Lord to work – maybe the time has come to try hasting it up all over again.
Incite Rebellion, Warmonger Hellkite, Tyrant’s Familiar, Bitter Feud, Impact Resonance – $1
Future bulk rares.
Estimated 2015 retail value for new Sworn to Darkness cards, excluding bulk rares: $17
Guided by Nature
Freyalise, Llanowar’s Fury – $10
Continuing to ramp once you’ve hit five mana seems silly if you’re used to competitive Magic, but it’s pretty standard in Commander. I doubt I’ll ever want
to build a deck entirely around Freyalise, but her +2 is useful nearly all the time, her -2 is powerful in the right situation, and her ultimate is fairly
attainable. I expect her price to settle near $5-$6 simply due to how versatile she is – funny considering how linear the rest of this deck plays out.
Song of the Dryads – $4
Even with the huge color pie violation here, Song of the Dryads isn’t powerful enough to become a Legacy staple. Three mana is too much for a removal spell
that gives your opponents a free land, even in a color that wouldn’t ordinarily get a Vindicate. It’s excellent in Commander and Cube though, and I doubt
it will ever be cheaper than the $4 it costs now, and I wouldn’t be shocked if hype gets it up to $5 or $6 for a while, especially if people try to make it
work in the Eternal formats after all.
Titania, Protector of Argoth – $2
Scapeshift is the easy combo with Titania, but she’s also amazingly good with Crucible of Worlds, Life from the Loam, or even Armageddon. Much like Feldon
I expect the supply to far outstrip demand for a build-around-me card, so I’m thinking she’ll end up as a $1 rare. That said, Titania’s power level is off
the charts so there’s a shot we’re all underestimating her right now.
Lifeblood Hydra – $2
I like Lifeblood Hydra – it does a different thing than most of the hydras do, and I feel like it’s going to end up in its fair share of Commander ramp
decks. It plays pretty well with Forgotten Ancient too. Mono-green ramp decks are often short ways to draw cards while still beating face, so I expect
Lifeblood Hydra to become a $2-$3 format staple.
Thunderfoot Baloth – $1
If you hear it, it’s too late! Overrun is a pretty good card already, and if you run a cheap aggro Commander (Ezuri, say) this guy becomes an Overrun
stapled to a 5/5 trampler. At just $1, I’m pretty sure this is going into all of my heavy green Commander decks. There’s upside here.
Sylvan Offering, Wolfcaller’s Howl, Wave of Vitriol, Siege Behemoth, Grave Sifter, Creeperhulk – $1
Future bulk rares, though Wave of Vitriol is an amazing dagger against people who like to play with too many techy non-basics, and Wolfcaller’s Howl is
just about the best thing you can drop at one of those 8-player games that some people love, but I’m pretty sure are waiting in hell for players like me.
Estimated 2015 retail value for new Guided by Nature cards, excluding bulk rares: $12
Overall Thoughts
My estimations are based on fairly conservative projections for what these singles will be selling for in six months. The prices will be much higher over
the short term, which I expect will lead to the first wave of these decks selling out fairly quickly. With a combined estimated retail value of $41, Built
From Scratch is likely to be the ‘chase’ deck of the five, and I expect it will remain a very solid purchase even once all of the hype and depreciation is
factored in. Forged in Stone is a close second with $37 in estimated value. Forged in Darkness and Guided by Nature tie for third place at $29, while Peer
Through Time finished an easy last place at $24. Oh – and don’t forget that I didn’t factor in the $1-and-under cards, many of which will buylist for a
quarter or fifty cents each.
While I doubt any of these decks will attain ‘buy on sight’ status the way Mind Seize did – for that, you’d need the overall buylist values to be
significantly higher than the retail cost of the deck – my guess is that the red and white decks will fly off shelves very fast, green and black will be
easy to find but missing in some stores, and the blue deck will be available everywhere.
Looking for Commander speculation targets to buy outside of these decks? Start with the color red. People are going to buy the red deck “for value” and
then decide to build around Daretti or Feldon the way they did with Nekusar last year. Bosh, Iron Golem, Slobad, Goblin Tinkerer, Sculpting Steel, Dragon
Mage, Duplicant, Darksteel Forge…there are plenty of cards with serious short-term upside here.
This Week’s Trends
I know, I know, I promised you all a full column on alternative casual formats. That’s coming next week. I wanted to get my Commander set review done while
the prices were fresh and there was still money to be made.
After a two month price surge, Standard staples continue to drop across the board. All the Khans of Tarkir cards are dropping–not a shock–but M15 and
Theros Block cards are also stagnant right now. Part of that is because pretty much everything feels playable at the moment. The Grand Prix last weekend
had Jeskai Aggro, Temur Aggro, Abzan Midrange, G/B Devotion, Boss Sligh, and Sultai Reanimator in the Top 8. That’s four of the five Khans guilds, a cheap
mono-red deck, and a sweet devotion/ramp/combo brew. Seriously – no one is allowed to complain about Standard being terrible for at least a week, okay? In
the meantime, I can give my favorite piece of advice: buy the cards you want to play with and don’t worry about value or how the format will shake out.
Enjoy this unprecedented depth while you can.
I’ll be honest, though – Modern is worrying me a little right now. Far from opening up the format, Treasure Cruise seems to have made Delver strategies too
oppressive. In the meantime, I expect most other Modern staples to either stay the same or dip in price a little. If you think there’s going to be a ban (I
do), feel free to invest in the deck of your choice before we wave goodbye to Treasure Cruise. With the likely impending release of Modern Masters II this
spring, WotC isn’t going to take a chance on the format fixing itself. Come spring, it’ll be Pod and Affinity and all the rest again.
There has been a lot of talk about cheating over the past few weeks. The important thing to remember is that cheating hasn’t gotten more rampant – we’ve
just gotten better at catching cheaters thanks to increased community awareness and video coverage. If you’re worried about being cheated at a tournament,
take some time and read about what they like to do. Try to avoid getting too paranoid though. The vast majority of players – even those with funky shuffles
-are just trying to play a good, fair game of Magic.
If you’re reading this from the US on Monday, tomorrow is election day. I try to avoid getting too political in this column, but I do want to take a moment
and ask you to please go and vote tomorrow. Yes, even you. Yes, even if you support that guy I hate or that thing I don’t like.
I often get depressed about the state of politics in this country, and goodness knows I’ve voted for leaders who have disappointed me greatly, but what I
try to keep in mind is that US politics is an evolutionary process, not a revolutionary one. By and large, you’re going to get a choice between two very
similar candidates in a given election. This can lead to feelings of apathy or even antipathy – why even vote when the choice is between two politicians
who are both lousy in the same terrible ways? Sounds like a waste of a day, right?
Here’s the thing – even when the country gets a ‘mandate’ election, it only shifts a tiny little bit. The TV newscasters like to make us think that the sky
is about to fall, but most of the time we’ve only changed something tiny and what we’ve actually end up with is more of the same. And that’s okay – if
things changed too fast, we’d have instability and chaos.
What you actually do when you cast your vote is to shift the national discourse just a tiny bit toward the direction you prefer. And those two candidates
who always seem the same? Well, next time they should both be just a little bit closer to the woman or man you’d actually like to vote for. If we all vote
enough, we’ll eventually end up with candidates we like – or at least candidates we respect.
Oh – and since turnout for midterm elections is so much lower than for presidential years, your vote tomorrow is worth, like four times as much as it
usually. Who doesn’t want four votes? That’s insane EV. Take ten minutes, do some cursory research, and cast your ballot tomorrow. See you at the polls!