If the information age has taught us anything, it’s that compelling ideas find a way to survive regardless of how true they are. No matter how many times
the “we only use 10% of our brains” myth is debunked, for example, someone out there is
writing a tweet or making a forum post or producing a major motion picture based on the
idea right now. Boring truths die quick deaths. Cool sounding crap lives forever.
Case in point, did you know that yesterday was the most depressing day of the year? According to a nonsensical formula made up at some point back in 2005 with fancy-looking variables for
debt, monthly salary, time since Christmas, and low motivational levels, January 19th was declared the most depressing day of the year by the official ‘Blue Monday’ society. Even though I’m pretty sure that the organization consists of a single retiree
with a bad WordPress site, the meme was on Fox News, CNN, and all over the internet yesterday as people lamented having to go to work on a dark cold Monday
in the middle of January. Except, of course, for all those folks in the US who had a day off in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. Whoops.
That said, the term ‘Blue Monday’ applies rather nicely to what happened in the Magic community yesterday. To recap:
- Dig Through Time, Treasure Cruise, and Birthing Pod are banned in Modern.
- Golgari Grave-Troll is unbanned in Modern.
- Treasure Cruise is banned in Legacy.
- Worldgorger Dragon is unbanned in Legacy.
- Treasure Cruise is restricted in Vintage.
- Gifts Ungiven is unrestricted in Vintage.
- No changes in Standard or Commander.
Blue Monday indeed. Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time, the two most impactful blue cards printed in years, have been relegated to ‘remember when?’
status in Modern. Even crazier, Birthing Pod-the axis of Modern’s best creature deck-is kaput. I’m not sure what the format is going to look like next
week, but it’ll be a heck of a lot different than it is today.
Much like the Blue Monday nonsense clogging up your Spam folder yesterday, I’ve heard a lot of people on Twitter and Reddit bemoaning the fact that Modern
has been bombed back to a time before Cruise and/or Pod made the format interesting and good. I understand why people who spent a lot of money on a Pod
deck feel horrible about the situation, but the bans should make Modern and Legacy more interesting and more diverse going forward. At the very least,
things should be in flux for a few months as the power vacuum is filled. So take a moment to mourn your favorite cardboard comrades, but don’t fault WotC
for doing what they had to in order to create a healthier and more interesting Modern.
It’s also worth taking a moment to remember that WotC has always used the Modern banned list somewhat proactively. Since the earliest days of the format,
Wizards made it clear that they were going to ban cards in decks that were too good for too long as a way to increase diversity and encourage change.
Standard changes every few months regardless, and Legacy has a very broad base of tier one and two strategies, but Modern has always been somewhat plagued
by a handful of decks that are stronger than the rest. Unless the latest set of bans give us some sort of Modern utopia where twenty or thirty decks are
suddenly viable, expect the best deck in the format to get the axe every year or two. Otherwise, people are apt to lose interest. It’s part of what you
always have to keep in mind if you’re going to invest in a tier one strategy going forward. Take note, Affinity players.
Regardless of how you feel about this, neither your opinion or mine matters in the end. The powers-that-be made their decisions, and it’s up to us to
figure out what that will mean for Modern, Legacy, and Vintage going forward. It’s hard to know what will actually happen without seeing a single post-ban
tournament list, but this is my take on what could transpire over the next few weeks and months.
Banned List Winners
Writing about post-ban winners and losers is somewhat deceptive because many prices have already shifted significantly since yesterday’s announcement. Many
of the losers have dropped in price so much that they aren’t actually worth selling anymore, and many of the winners have spiked in price so hard that they
should be sold right away. I like using these categories as ways of thinking about current demand relative to each card’s pre-ban position in the metagame,
but it’s still very important to evaluate each card on a case-by-case basis as we proceed.
The Affinity Staples- Mox Opal ($50), Arcbound Ravager ($18), Steel Overseer ($9), Blinkmoth Nexus ($12), Inkmoth Nexus ($10), and Glimmervoid ($10)
Affinity was the dominant aggro deck in Modern before Treasure Cruise, and it has still managed to perform at an elite level despite the dominance of
Birthing Pod and U/R Delver. With those decks gone, Affinity instantly rises to the very top of the format. All of these staples should rise in price
between now and the release of Modern Masters 2015, but the real growth could happen when that spoiler list drops. Most of these cards were reprinted in
the first Modern Masters set already, so there’s a chance they won’t be reprinted a second time in two years. If a staple like Glimmervoid or Arcbound
Ravager isn’t back in MM 2015, it could double in price overnight as people overreact to the perceived lack of supply. Mox Opal is the most likely of these
to be reprinted in MM 2015, but if it isn’t I’d be shocked if the price doesn’t climb to $80-$100.
Tarmogoyf – $209.99
The most expensive card in Modern by a factor of two just got even better. Part of WotC’s rationale for banning Birthing Pod was to give the other
creature-based decks a chance, but without having Pod around to tutor up the right creature for each situation, the most efficient creatures overall should
once again rule the roost. Tarmogoyf is almost always going to be the best creature you can play for two mana, so I expect it will see a resurgence in a
big way. If it isn’t reprinted in Modern Masters 2015, the price could rise even further. I expect that it will though, and that value of ‘Goyf will stay
approximately where it is.
Dark Confidant – $75.89
When Treasure Cruise was around to give you three cards for one mana, paying the iron price for Dark Confidant made very little sense. Why make a deal with
the devil when there were piles of gold sitting around on boats for everyone to grab? With no access to either a Birthing Pod engine or free piles of cards
now though, Bob’s importance to the format grows significantly. I doubt his price will move too much-he was still the second most expensive card in Modern
despite seeing almost no play over the last few months-but he should start showing up in winning decks again.
Liliana of the Veil – $56.39
It’s easy to forget that Jund was the best deck in Modern for quite a while. That’s what lead to Bloodbraid Elf and Deathrite Shaman being banned in the
first place, after all. WotC didn’t unban Bloodbraid yesterday, but they did give B/G Midrange a major boost regardless by ditching Pod and Cruise.
Liliana-based decks should make a comeback-perhaps Abzan-flavored with Siege Rhinos?-and demand for this card has already started to increase. Just don’t
forget that everyone who attends a Regional PTQ is going to be getting a foil copy of this in a few months. If Liliana’s price starts moving too fast too
quickly, I’d sell.
Golgari Grave-Troll – $10
Like most cards coming off the B&R list (see: Blossom, Bitter), Golgari Grave-Troll will likely never be more valuable or in demand than it is right
now. More likely than not, this unbanning will not make so much as a ripple in Modern. If Dredge does have the tools to become even tier two though,
Golgari Grave-Troll should remain in the $5-$10 range. I expect several of the cards I’m going to talk about next to lead that deck in terms of value.
The Modern Dredge Possibilities- Vengevine ($14), Gravecrawler ($5.50), Bloodghast ($8)
If Golgari Grave-Troll’s unbanning actually does lead to Modern Dredge being a thing, these cards will be part of the brew. If one of these decks goes 4-0
over the next few weeks, we could see Vengevine jump to some crazy number overnight ($30? $40?) as people overreact to the Rise of the Eldrazi mythic. Snag
a set of these now if you’ve got some extra cash-it’s a great low risk, high reward spec for a quick flip. The others are solid buys too, especially since
they have a lower point of entry and just as much chance of seeing play.
Wasteland – $100
U/R Delver in Legacy was exceptionally strong against Wasteland, so I’d expect demand for the card to increase significantly as the metagame adjusts back
toward decks that are weak to this card. Wasteland was as high as $150 last March, and you can find them today for less than $70 if you look hard enough.
With the increased demand, I wouldn’t be shocked if the card spikes past $100 again at some point this spring.
Snapcaster Mage – $33.55
Snapcaster Mage was significantly worse in Modern when Treasure Cruise was around to grant a ton of card advantage and encouraging you to delve away your
graveyard. Without Cruise or Dig, Snappy’s power level should increase in a big way. Oh-and Innistrad cards aren’t getting reprinted in Modern Masters
2015, so you’re safe for at least a year or two. I wouldn’t be shocked if this guy hits $50 retail at some point soon.
Abrupt Decay – $11.49
If recent history bears itself out once again this spring, several cards from Return to Ravnica block will spike due to Modern play as trade binder and LGS
supply has all but dried up at this point. Abrupt Decay is very well-positioned with Jund and/or Abzan primed to make a resurgence, and any Golgari
Grave-Troll deck that might come to pass will want to run this card as a four-of as well. Get a set now.
Worldgorger Dragon – $10
If you want to know more about what a Legacy format with Worldgorger Dragon in it might look like, check out Caleb Durward’s excellent video series on banned cards in the format from last
April. His conclusion after testing was that Worldgorger was safe to unban-the loop it created with Animate Dead could draw out some games that otherwise
might have been losses, but the deck wasn’t significantly more powerful or less fun than Griselbrand Reanimator. Foil Worldgorger Dragons are probably safe
at $40, but I’m not certain the card is good enough to even warrant a slot in Legacy, which is what it would take for a $10+ price tag to maintain itself.
I’m selling my extra copies of this into hype. I’m also not going near Animate Dead, a card that has been reprinted at uncommon a number of times.
Splinter Twin – $18
I expect Twin to be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015-there aren’t that many high profile red cards in the format, after all-but the deck just became firmly
tier one now that Birthing Pod is gone. Splinter Twin could show some significant movement in the short term and is a nice trade target.
Geist of Saint Traft – $14.50
Prior to the rise of U/R Delver, Geist of Saint Traft was starting to see a lot of play as part of a very good Jeskai tempo deck. That deck dropped white
altogether once Treasure Cruise was printed, and I expect people to go back to running Geist now that U/R Delver is so much worse. Thundermaw Hellkite and
Restoration Angel are other considerations from this deck, though Resto was also played in several different Birthing Pod brews, so her demand is likely to
stay fairly static.
The Fate Reforged Delve Cards?- Tasigur, the Golden Fang ($5), Temporal Trespass ($6), Soulflayer ($3)
I’m not saying it’s likely that these cards will see play in Modern, but there’s a chance that didn’t exist the day before yesterday. As any Khans Limited
player knows, you can run a couple of delve cards in any deck and almost always guarantee that they’re going to be very powerful. There was no shot for
either of these cards in Modern with Cruise and Dig running around, but without those options it is likely that a third delve card will emerge as at least
a two-of. I just don’t know which one it’ll be yet or whether it will matter enough to cause the price of Standard cards to rise.
Banned List Losers
Treasure Cruise (Foil)
– $10
This foil was a solid $20+ before the ban, and it’s already down to $10. Vintage players will still want it as a one-of and it’s a Cube staple, but it’s a
current set common foil. It should settle in between $5-$8 retail.
Dig Through Time (Foil) – $25
Dig Through Time sees play in Legacy, but it’s generally a one-of. It will replace Treasure Cruise in some Legacy decks, but the additional U in the mana
cost makes it a lot worse in most decks. That isn’t enough to make up for the Modern ban. Longer term, it’s probably a $15-$20 foil unless Legacy play
increases by a lot. Normal Dig Through Times should remain fairly stable since the card is great in Standard.
Birthing Pod – $6
The decision on whether or not to sell Birthing Pod at current retail depends on whether or not it is reprinted in Modern Masters. It’s possible that the
set was sent to the printer before the decision to ban it was made, which would make it a somewhat awkward pull this spring. If that does happen, the
additional supply should push it down toward $2-$3. If not, Cube and Commander interest should keep the card in the $5-$6 range. I expect WotC had a sense
that this might happen, and I doubt we’ll see a Pod reprint anytime soon. I sold my extra Birthing Pods prior to this decision, but if I hadn’t, I’d
probably just slot them into my Commander trade binder and wait for the right deal.
Linvala, Keeper of Silence – $49.05
Linvala is in an interesting position. Despite not seeing nearly as much play in Pod decks as she used to, her price remained fairly steady through the end
of the year thanks to her relative scarcity and status as a premier mythic. Even though she showed up most often in Birthing Pod decks, she does
occasionally see play in Modern G/W Midrange and Zoo, as well as Commander and Cube. I expect her price to fall a little-possibly into the $35-$40
range-but she’ll still be tough to acquire simply due to how few copies there are of her compared with many other Modern staples. Sell or trade if you can
get close to current retail, but there’s no need to panic here.
Noble Hierarch – $70.79
Much like Linvala, Noble Hierarch’s value has a lot to do with its actual scarcity-it’s one of very few Shards-era Modern staples that hasn’t been
reprinted outside of the judge foil. Noble Hierarch sees a lot of play outside of Pod decks as well as in Legacy, but Pod was the place where this card was
most common by a wide margin. Complicating matters, most people (including myself) believe that Noble Hierarch will be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015,
likely at rare. If that happens, the price should drop from $70 to $20-$25 regardless of the Pod ban. $70 is pretty nutty for any card printed in the past
fifteen years, so I can’t recommend holding onto these. Demand is going down, and supply is very likely going up. Sell while you can.
Voice of Resurgence – $18.75
Voice might be a decent long-term hold, as it plays very well against control decks, especially ones that like to eke out advantage with Snapcaster Mage,
but the fact is that Birthing Pod was always going to be this card’s best home. If you can get these for $12-$15 from an irate Pod player you should do so,
but it might be awhile before this card’s next home is found.
Orzhov Pontiff – $12
Orzhov Pontiff was up to $18 a few weeks ago, but that $12 price tag is still far too high now that Birthing Pod is banned. Expect the card to drop toward
a retail price of $3-$5 with almost no demand. If you have any of these sitting around, sell them to a willing buylist as quickly as you can.
Chalice of the Void – $25
Chalice of the Void spiked from $7-$8 to $25 thanks to the rise of Delver decks, mostly in Legacy. With Treasure Cruise banned, these decks should lose a
significant amount of their power level. Many of them will likely go back to slower Temur and Sultai lists that are better against a resolved Chalice
anyway. This card should drop back toward $10-$15 before long. Sell now.
Forked Bolt – $5
Forked Bolt also spiked as a way to combat the rise of U/R Delver across all the Eternal formats. Much like Chalice of the Void, the level of hate needed
has been reduced substantially. Forked Bolt should drop back toward $2-$2.50.
Steam Vents – $13.85
I still believe that all of the shocklands have room to grow, but I can’t ignore the fact that Steam Vents simply isn’t as important today as it was
yesterday. Splinter Twin is still a tier one deck, and Jeskai should still be an elite tempo brew, but the death of U/R Delver knocks this down a peg or
two for sure. Feel free to trade these away if you can get close to current retail for them.
The still banned: Stoneforge Mystic ($25), Bloodbraid Elf ($3.50), and Ancestral Vision ($8.50)
Someone ‘leaked’ a fake B&R announcement late in the day on Sunday, and there was a run on both Stoneforge Mystic and Bloodbraid Elf as people tried to
get in ahead of the curve. A lot of amateur speculators love going all in on B&R list targets, a tactic that paid off big last year when Bitterblossom
and foil copies of Wild Nacatl doubled in price prior to coming off the banned list and then doubled again when they were actually set free.
There’s money to be made doing this-ask anyone who has a stack of Golgari Grave-Trolls today-but if you’re going to speculate on banned cards, do it
several months beforehand so you’re not paying the hype price the week or two before the announcement. If you had bought Bloodbraid Elves back in August,
you probably could have snagged them for a dollar apiece and made money regardless of what happened yesterday. If you bought them on Saturday, you almost
certainly lost money. Stay smart and only buy into hype when the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor.
Overall, a shakeup of this magnitude is great for those of us who want a healthy and robust Magic economy. Prices should remain fairly volatile as people
attempt to figure out the future of the format, and there should be a ton of interesting action as different decks rise and fall in prominence. This should
lead to an overall rise in the price of Modern cards, especially in conjunction with normal seasonal demand increases. It should be an interesting next few
months, so buckle up and remember to always try and stay informed. It might have been Blue Monday for Delver and Pod players, but it should be a green
spring for the rest of us.
This Week’s Trends
– Early Fate Reforged risers include Whisperwood Elemental, Crux of Fate, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. This is all still
pre-tournament movement, so it shouldn’t be taken too seriously yet. For what it’s worth, manifest didn’t seem to play out all that powerfully for anyone
at my Prerelease, though Sealed and Standard are entirely different animals. Of these, Crux of Fate and Tasigur seem to have the most buzz behind them and
the best shot of breaking out.
– Early Fate Reforged fallers include Shaman of the Great Hunt, Soulfire Grand Master, Temporal Trespass, Torrent Elemental, Warden of the First Tree,
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death, and Mardu Strike Leader. Of course, Torrent Elemental rose in price significantly since I put out my set review, so ‘down’ is
a relative term. I’m also still a believer in Mardu Strike Leader, assuming a B/W Warriors deck does indeed materialize.
– The promotional version of Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is sold out at $100, and I can’t find a copy for under $110. The supply of these isn’t going up
anytime soon (or, possibly, ever), but demand should drop as people forget about how much they want one of these. I expect the price to be stable in the
$100 range, but if you really want one, you should monitor it closely. It would be fairly easy for someone to try and corner the market on these and take
them to $200.