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Black Magic – The Ins and Out of M11 (Part 2)

Grand Prix GP Columbus July 30-August 1, 2010
Thursday, July 15th – Last week, Sam Black analysed the Core Set comings and goings dictated by the arrival of M11 and the approaching departure of M10. With White, Blue, and Black put to the sword already, Sam turns his eye toward Red, Green, Artifacts, and Lands. What has gained, and what has lost out? Sam reveals all…

Last week, I talked about which cards we’ve lost from White, Blue, and Black at each commonality, and which cards seem to have most closely replaced them. Most cards that left were replaced by similar cards in their slot in the Core Set, leaving only a few cards that became entirely different. Looking at these changes is intended to help discover what strategies get better (when the cards in their slots were upgraded to similar but better versions) and which got worse, as well as to see which new strategies might be pushed and which old strategies are less viable.

So far, the format looks more aggressive, and mono color seems to be a little less rewarded. Let’s see how the rest of the set has changed.

Red:

Commons:

Out:
Burning Inquiry
Burst of Speed
Firebreathing
Jackal Familiar
Kindled Fury
Lightning Elemental
Panic Attack
Raging Goblin
Seismic Strike
Shatter
Sparkmage Apprentice
Trumpet Blast
Viashino Spearhunter
Yawning Fissure

In:
Act of Treason
Arc Runner
Bloodcrazed Goblin
Chandra’s Outrage
Demolish
Fling
Goblin Balloon Brigade
Goblin Tunneler
Incite
Manic Vandal
Pyretic Ritual
Thunder Strike
Volcanic Strength
Vulshock Berserker

Direct Comparisons:

Burning Inquiry → Pyretic Ritual

I’ll be the first to admit that this is a really loose comparison, but for Limited, the point is that this, like many Red common slots, is basically going to a blank card either way. Both have narrow applications to combo decks in Constructed, and that’s pretty much all they can do.

Burst of Speed → Incite

Again, really loose, but I think this fills the “one mana Red spell that shows that Red likes attacking” slot, or something. Incite can theoretically function as really bad removal if you’re desperate, particularly if you’re Green so that you’re more likely to have a creature that can theoretically kill the creature you target with this, but really, I think it’s about as playable as Burst of Speed.

Firebreathing → Volcanic Strength

An actual comparison! Red gets one common enchant creature, and this is a huge upgrade in that department. Slightly above average enchant creatures aren’t much to write home about, but this card’s actually interesting. The two extra toughness means that Red is less likely to be able to two-for-one you for playing it, and two extra power plus Mountainwalk creates a serious clock against Red. I was always happiest to play against Red/Green with the Aura Gnarlid deck in Rise of the Eldrazi, and I think in general those are the colors you want this kind of enchant creature most against. I’ll generally think of this as a sideboard card against R/G or other Red decks that aren’t good at killing big creatures, but it’s not terrible if you have to play this card just as “a two-power haster.”

Jackal Familiar → Blooodcrazed Goblin

Jackal Familiar was probably more likely to get in for more than one hit in Limited, but for the most part, trying to make it work was a pretty bad idea. Bloodcrazed Goblin isn’t much better, but I’ve considered siding it in as a one-mana 2/2 wall. Not much better, but at least it can always do something (assuming a 2/2 blocker counts as “doing something”).

Kindled Fury → Thunder Strike

One more mana for +1 power doesn’t seem great in a vacuum. I’d certainly rather Giant Growth than pay 1G for +4/+3, but in this case, I think it’s actually substantially better. Basically, one damage isn’t worth a card, but two damage sometimes is, so this is much less terrible when you just want to use it to hit your opponent, and two extra power is a lot more likely to let you actually get the kind of value you’re looking for out of this card than one extra power. It’s still not a great card, but I think this is a slight upgrade on Kindled Fury.

Lightning Elemental → Vulshock Berserker

This is a close comparison. Vulshock Berserker still trade with most creatures that can block it, so the extra damage would be pretty nice, but not getting killed by things like Prodigal Pyromancer and Stabbing Pain is certainly nice. Overall, very similar cards, but I think Lightning Elemental might have been a little better.

Panic Attack → Act of Treason

Act of Treason already existed in M10, but at uncommon, which really makes it a completely different card. This is a huge upgrade in Red sorceries to push your guys through. This one will often do a lot more damage, enough so that it can easily be worth doing early when you’re taking the one big blocker they played that turn and hitting them for some non-lethal but still substantial chunk of damage. This card at common also allows you to try to get enough of them to justify playing cards like Bloodthrone Vampire or Viscera Seer, to try to turn them into a common three-mana Slave of Bolas, which is actually good enough to be worth trying.

Raging Goblin → Goblin Balloon Brigade

This is probably a slight upgrade. You trade one point of damage up front (if you play it on turn 1… later, you might not even get that point) for the ability to get multiple evasive hits in later. Also, the Balloon Brigade just has a more fun flavor.

Seismic Strike → Chandra’s Outrage

I’m very happy with this change. Both basically cost at least two Red to kill a real creature, but Chandra’s Outrage doesn’t require you to be unreasonably dedicated to kill bigger creatures. The added two damage a player easily makes up for the extra mana. This card is substantially better, and I like what it does to the color and the format a lot more.

Shatter → Fling

This is one of those cases where I’d like to be comparing Shatter to Manic Vandal, since they have a similar effect, but the way the other cards line up, I think the Vandal is taking the place of another three-mana creature, which frees the two-mana instant slot to go to Fling. Fling is an awkward card when you can’t stack damage. It’s hard to reliably use it to kill a creature you need to kill without losing a creature that wasn’t going to die, so it often really costs you a card. On the other hand, when you’re desperate, removal is removal. This card gets really good if you’re playing a lot of Act of Treasons and/or Arc Runners. Overall, I think there’s a lot more potential payoff than there was with Shatter, which might sometimes get sided in, but you were never all that excited to do that.

Sparkmage Apprentice → Goblin Tunneler

Without Battle-Rattle Shaman, Valakut Fireboar, and a bunch of tokens for your Bloodthrone Vampires, Goblin Tunneler seems like he’ll be a lot worse than he was in Rise of the Eldrazi. I’d much rather have the Sparkmage Apprentice, I think.

Trumpet Blast → Arc Runner

Both of these will sometime trade with creatures, and will often get a similar amount of damage to an opponent who can’t block. Trumpet Blast is good if you have a bunch creatures, while Arc Runner works better when you’re just trying to get some random hits in early and then finish them off with Lava Axes. I don’t love either of these cards, but I think they’re fairly similar. Either way, you play each of them rarely enough that it doesn’t change the color much.

Viashino Spearhunter → Manic Vandal

Manic Vandal is awesome. He’s reasonably likely to two-for-one, and it’s always completely insane when he does. That potential payoff is much higher than you get out of Spearhunter’s ability to hold of multiple x/2s. I’d also expect Manic Vandal to become a serious player in Standard after Scars comes out, even if he’ll usually start in the sideboard.

Yawning Fissure → Demolish

I’m glad that change didn’t last.

Uncommons:

Out:
Act of Treason
Dragon Whelp
Goblin Artillery
Ignite Disorder
Inferno Elemental
Stone Giant
Wall of Fire

In:
Chandra’s Spitfire
Combust
Earth Servant
Ember Hauler
Fire Servant
Shiv’s Embrace

Direct Comparisons:

Act of Treason → Gone, sort of.

Dragon Whelp → Shiv’s Embrace

My first inclination was to compare Dragon Whelp to Chandra’s Spitfire, which was just embarrassing. Really, we’ve just switched uncommon dragons. Shiv’s Embrace is a little riskier, but also even more brutal if they can’t answer it. Either card is likely to end the game in a hurry. I wish they’d left Dragon Whelp, since Shiv’s Embrace is too likely to be a big blowout one way or the other. Dragon Whelp can at least pretend to just be a creature.

Goblin Artillery → Ember Hauler

Ember Hauler is a fine man, but it’s a lot worse than it looks if you’re still used to being able to stack damage. You never get to two-for-one with him, and you never get to kill anything bigger than an x/2 without some help. Goblin Artillery, on the other hand, could easily win games by itself. A huge downgrade.

Ignite Disorder → Combust

In Constructed, this is a big help, since Red really wanted a good answer to Baneslayer Angel. In Limited, these cards are pretty comparable. For every time you’re able to kill a Serpent or Angel, there will be another time when you would have been able to two-for-one them. Overall, it’s a pretty small change for Limited.

Inferno Elemental → Earth Servant

Both of these are great brawlers for six mana. Overall, I’d say they’re pretty similar.

Stone Giant → Fire Servant

I think this is an upgrade…? I assume Fire Servant plus Lava Axe happens and generally wins the game. The body is certainly worse for the cost, but I think the ability is enough better to make up for it.

Wall of Fire → Chandra’s Spitfire

I guess the Spitfire is mostly a Wall. It’s much smaller, but it has reach. Also, it can randomly hit your opponent for a ton of damage or just clock them slowly. This is probably the biggest upgrade here, but I don’t think it makes up for the loss of Goblin Artillery.

Rares:

Out:
Ball Lightning
Bogardan Hellkite
Capricious Efreet
Earthquake
Manabarbs
Shivan Dragon
Siege-Gang Commander
Warp World

In:
Ancient Hellkite
Cyclops Gladiator
Destructive Force
Hoarding Dragon
Inferno Titan
Leyline of Punishment
Reverberate
Wild Evocation

Earthquake and Siege-Gang Commander are the most significant losses, although Ball Lightning and Manabarbs aren’t irrelevant. I’m glad Siege-Gang Commander was in M10, just so he get a chance to show that he was still good enough even without being able to stack damage, but I think he’s been around long enough that I’m fine with him taking another break. Earthquake is an extremely powerful card that occupies an interesting place, since a lot of decks that want to kill all the ground creatures don’t really want to damage themselves. Manabarbs is a valuable sideboard tool for Red decks, but based on my personal deck preferences, I’m happy not to have to worry about playing against it much longer.

It’ll be interesting to see if Cyclops Gladiator is actually good enough for Constructed. The size is exactly big enough to have a chance, since it kills Wall of Omens and lives through Lightning Bolt, but it takes a lot to sell me on a four-drop that doesn’t do anything right when it hits play these days. I’m guessing it’ll get squeezed out, which is too bad, because it looks kind of fun. Maybe Mono Red will sideboard him.

Destructive Force is a huge effect. It took me a little while to get over the huge cost, but the more I think about it, the more excited I am to try to play it.

Hoarding Dragon might have a chance in the future, but at the moment, I’m not seeing it.

Inferno Titan has the potential to be a lot better than people are currently giving him credit for.

Leyline of Punishment would be exactly what Red needed if Kor Firewalker was the problem, but I think Leyline of Sanctity might be the real problem now.

Reverberate isn’t really anything new, but it’s not an option that’s been available in a long time. I’m not really sure if it’ll see much play.

The other cards don’t matter for Constructed.

Green:

Commons:

Out:
Borderland Ranger
Bountiful Harvest
Bramble Creeper
Centaur Courser
Craw Wurm
Deadly Recluse
Elvish Visionary
Emerald Oryx
Entangling Vines
Mist Leopard
Oakenform
Rampant Growth
Regenerate
Stampeding Rhino

In:
Brindle Boar
Cultivate
Dryad’s Favor
Garruk’s Champion
Greater Basilisk
Hornet Sting
Hunter’s Feast
Plummet
Primal Cocoon
Sacred Wolf
Spined Wurm
Sylvan Ranger
Wall of Vines
Yavimaya Wurm

Direct Comparisons:

Boarderland Ranger → Cultivate

Another case where I have to go by casting cost rather than text. These cards are actually pretty similar. They both put a land in your hand, the question is whether you want a 2/2 body or a tapped land in addition, and in limited, I don’t think that’s an easy question. These are roughly similar in power level, depending a lot of the deck.

Bountiful Harvest → Hunter’s Feast

This doesn’t matter.

Bramble Creeper → Spined Wurm

GG.

Centaur Courser → Sacred Wolf

Sacred Wolf is certainly a lot better than Pincer Beetles, since enchanting it is actually awesome, and now they don’t know that you can’t pump it, but I’d still rather have the two toughness. At least Sacred Wolf isn’t embarrassing.

Craw Wurm → Yavimaya Wurm

Trample.

Deadly Recluse → Garruk’s Champion

This is clearly much more aggressive, and as you might expect if you’ve been paying attention, I’m pretty sad about this change, since having versus not having the second Forest to actually play the Champion on turn 2 is such a big swing, and one you can’t reliably draft to have control over. The card quality, I think, is actually surprisingly close.

Elvish Visionary → Sylvan Ranger

I’d rather draw a random card than a land after my opening hand, but getting to choose which land so that I can splash more easily makes it a much closer question. Sylvan Ranger is very good if you need the fixing, and not great if you don’t, which means that multicolor Green might realistically be an archetype if you can somewhat count on getting fix later (it’s possible that I should be comparing Sylvan Ranger to Rampant Growth, since the amount of fixing at common is an important thing to know about the makeup of green in any set, but there’s really nothing else that’s remotely similar to Elvish Visonary, and these two cards are really close).

Emerald Oryx → Brindle Boar

Green’s curve shifts around a bit here, and Giant Spider becomes its only common four-drop, as opposed to the previous glut of three different common creatures that it had in M10. Brindle Boar is an extremely frustrating card, since you really want to both trade with it and get the four life. I think the result is that the card is actually quite a bit worse than Venerable Monk. That means it’s basically unplayable, which is only slightly worse than Emerald Oryx.

Entangling Vines → Hornet Sting

Not only are there fewer four-mana creatures, but this change also happens. Hornet Sting might be good enough in some formats, but I think there are very few one-toughness creatures you need to kill in M11. I think this is basically a sideboard card against Royal Assassin.

Mist Leopard → Wall of Vines

Sorry, Mist Leopard. At least you weren’t too good to begin with.

Oakenform → Primal Cocoon

Oakenform could occasionally steal games. Primal Cocoon is much worse.

Rampant Growth → Plummet

These cards have nothing to do with each other, but it was the only way to compare Rampant Growth to a playable after pairing Sylvan Ranger with Elvish Visionary. Like Leaf Arrow, I think it might be correct to maindeck Plummet a surprising amount of the time.

Regenerate → Dryad’s Favor

Bad cards.

Stampeding Rhino → Greater Basilisk

Greater Basilisk may not kill an opponent as quickly, but it seems like a similarly powerful board presence.

I feel like the other colors improved more than Green, which had some clear winners and some clear losers. Green has a lot of losers in this set.

Uncommons:

Out:
Enormous Baloth
Howl of the Night Pack
Mold Adder
Overrun
Windstorm

In:
Autumn’s Veil
Back to Nature
Duskdale Wurm
Garruk’s Packleader

Direct Comparisons:

Enormous Baloth → Duskdale Wurm

Trample.

Howl of the Night Pack → Gone

Mold Adder → Autumn’s Veil

I’m not actually sure how often I want to side this in for Limited, but I do think it’s very good in Constructed.

Overrun → Garruk’s Packleader

I’d rather just win the game than play an excellent 4/4, but I guess you could do a lot worse. I’m really glad Overrun was (functionally) moved to rare for Limited.

Windstorm → Back to Nature

I’d rather kill all the fliers than all the enchantments.

Again, Green didn’t do so well here.

Rares:

Out:
Ant Queen
Elvish Piper
Great Sable Stag
Kalonian Behemoth
Lurking Predators
Master of the Wild Hunt
Might of Oaks

In:
Fauna Shaman
Gaea’s Revenge
Leyline of Vitality
Mitotic Slime
Obstinate Baloth
Overwhelming Stampede
Primeval Titan

Great Sable Stag and Master of the Wild Hunt are the only cards we’re losing that really matter, and Great Sable Stag hasn’t seen much play lately.

Fauna Shaman is obviously excellent. There are a lot of questions about exactly how excellent. Chapin has suggested it’s “as excellent as possible.” I think there will be Green decks that play creatures that don’t play Fauna Shaman, but that it will be very, very good in the decks that do play it, so, roughly in the same league as Lotus Cobra.
Gaea’s Revenge would be a total nightmare if it had trample. As is, it probably doesn’t matter.

Leyline of Vitality hasn’t been getting good press, which I think is unfair. Take a look at the number of Cunning Sparkmages people are sideboarding these days. I could be wrong, but I think this is a reasonable countermeasure.

Obstinate Baloth is obviously awesome against Jund and Mono Red, the biggest question is whether it will see more maindeck or sideboard play.

Primeval Titan is amazing. Every now and then I see people say they think it’s overrated, or that it only goes in Turboland, or that it only goes in some Eldrazi deck. I think those people lack vision, and that the card is generally amazing.

Artifacts:

Uncommon:

Out:
Gorgon Flail
Rod of Ruin
Spellbook

In:
Crystal Ball
Elixir of Immortality
Gargoyle Sentinel
Juggernaut
Sorcerer’s Strongbox
Stone Golem
Voltaic Key
Warlord’s Axe

Clearly there’s no reason for a side by side comparison when we’ve gained 5 more artifacts, and it doesn’t impact the balance of decks. All I really have to say about these is that, while I haven’t played with Crystal Ball yet, I’m pretty sure it’s the best uncommon to open in sealed. I’m glad that Elixir of Immortality exists, and, while it’s not great, I think there are times it is correct to side it in for Limited.

Rare:

Out:
Coat of Arms
Darksteel Colossus
Howling Mine
Magebane Armor
Mirror of Fate
Pithing Needle

In:
Brittle Effigy
Jinxed Idol
Steel Overseer
Sword of Vengeance
Temple Bell
Triskelion

I’m actually a little confused to see Pithing Needle leaving, as I think the format needs more answers to planeswalkers rather than fewer. It seems like an odd decision. Other than that, we’re only really losing Howling Mine.

Brittle Effigy isn’t great value, but it’s what a lot of decks need. It lets Red deal with Kor Firewalker, Green deal with Kargan Dragonlord, and Black deal with Vengevine.

Jinxed Idol is interesting. It’s easy to build a deck that can pass it at no real cost; the question is whether it’s hard enough for the opponent to pass it back to want to bother. My inclination is yes, it is.

Steel Overseer will have to wait.

Sword of Vengeance didn’t seem great to me, but it combines perfectly with Basilisk Collar, and Stoneforge Mystics in numbers can ensure that you have both together, which makes it a card that might see play.

Temple Bell is awesome. It’s a less risky Howling Mine that offers slightly greater reward.

Triskelion’s probably a lot worse now. It can’t stack damage, and creatures in general are better. I don’t think it’ll see as much play as it did the last time around.

Lands:

Out: Gargoyle Castle
In: Mystifying Maze

Gargoyle Castle’s stock went down a lot with Worldwake manlands available. It’ll be interesting to see how much play Mystifying Maze gets. I don’t think it’ll ever be right to play more than two, and I’m not sure if it will ever even earn that, but I’m generally a fan of lands that do things, so I’m glad this exists.

Conclusion:

The format seems a lot faster, and it looks at a glance like it’s easier to win by having a synergistic deck rather than having a bunch of broken uncommons compared to M10. I’m optimistic about the changes, but I don’t know that it’s different enough to make it close enough to drafting an expert level set to justify its inclusion as a Pro Tour format. My guess is that no matter how good it is, players will complain about it enough that it probably wasn’t worth using this set for the PT, and that the players will largely be right that it’s worse than an expert level set would be anyway. Still, for a Core Set, I’m optimistic about this one not being defined entirely by bombs.

Blue seems the most improved to me, and Green seems least improved, and might actually be worse in a vacuum that it was. This means, contextually, with every other color getting better, it should be quite a bit worse.

There are a number of commons that inspire actual archetypes that one can try drafting decks around, which gives the set a slight Rise of the Eldrazi feel, which is a good thing, but to a much, much lesser degree, which of course makes it not as good. Still, it’s nice to see some cards that get much better or worse depending on what the other cards in your deck are, rather than just depending on whether you can cast them.

Thanks for reading…

Sam Black