Let the Battle begin!
Battle for Zendikar
Prerelease weekend is only a few days away, and it’s time to start piecing together the puzzle that is the new Standard format. While most social media
reactions to the full spoiler were underwhelming, I still think that Battle for Zendikar is going to be a fun set and that the new Standard
environment is going to be a good one. Any format where Eldrazi Ramp and U/B Control both look viable has to be somewhat exciting, right?
Let’s Talk About Allies
Before we get to the last bit of my set review, I want to talk a little about the Allies. Most of these cards are at bulk or near-bulk prices, but I
suspect that has more to do with how lousy the Allies were last time around than it does about this new crop. Let’s take a quick look at 2015’s Allies and
see if we can find a deck somewhere in there, shall we?
In white, Expedition Envoy, Kor Bladewhirl, and Lantern Scout all look playable. If you want to run four colors, Unified Front can make four (!) Allies for
just four mana, too. That might be enough to warrant a look at Kor Entanglers.
Blue doesn’t really give us anything. If there’s going to be an Ally deck, it’s going to be W/G/R/B in some combination.
In black, Drana, Liberator of Malakir is the real deal. The double black is going to be hard for a dedicated four-color deck, but the effect is very good.
Kalastria Healer, Zulaport Cutthroat, and Painful Truths also reward you for basing your four-color deck in W/B.
Red’s Chasm Guide and Firemantle Mage both look like Limited fodder at first glance, but they could have utility in the right deck. This is also Zada,
Hedron Grinder’s best chance at finding a home.
Green has a bevy of good options if you want to be slightly less aggressive. Beastcaller Savant helps enable four-color shenanigans well. Tajuru Warcaller is a very interesting way to finish, especially if you can stack enough triggers at
once. Combine Warcaller with Chasm Guide and Unified Front to kill your opponent very, very quickly.
What about the multicolored Allies? Well, Angelic Captain seems too slow unless you can reliably give her haste or trample. Drana’s Emissary seems better,
especially in a base-W/B version of the deck. Grovetender Druids is worth exploring, but having to pay one for every Plant is probably a deal-breaker.
March from the Tomb is a must, especially since it gives you multiple triggers upon resolution. Munda, Ambush Leader seems like a reasonable way to find
your key cards while still getting to attack, but Noyan Dar, Roil Shaper seems too slow. Resolute Blademaster probably costs one mana too much, but Veteran
Warleader has promise. Ally Encampment, of course, is an automatic four-of in whatever version of this deck you want to build.
Hmm…this is awkward. I want to base the deck in G/W for Beastcaller Savant, but there aren’t too many other good green Allies, especially at the lower
CMCs. Green is still probably an essential base color because getting to the full four for Unified Front is so important, but the majority of the deck is
probably going to be B/W touching on red.
Overall, I still don’t see a tier one deck here. There are going to be some bonkers turn 5 kills, but there are also going to be plenty of awkward draws
where you don’t get there. Allies are probably better than you think-and you should adjust your expectations accordingly-but it’s probably not time to go
nuts and buy all the Allies you can.
Onto the cards!
Drana, Liberator of Malakir – $11.99
Drana is going to be part of the Ally deck if it materializes, but she should see Constructed play regardless. Three mana creatures that can play defense
well and offense really well are worth looking at, and the fact that Drana’s trigger happens during first strike damage is crucial. If there’s going to be
a B/X aggro deck, Drana will be at least a three-of. If there are two, (B/R and B/W, say) then Drana has a shot at being one of the two or three most
expensive cards in the set.
$12 seems right to me for a creature with so much upside, but I’m still not buying. If Drana’s deck takes a while to materialize, she could hit the $4-$5
range by the middle of October. If not, the massive incoming supply boom should still keep her price in the $15 range. It would probably take an Allies
deck, a B/R aggro deck, a Collected Company Drana deck, and a Hardened Scales Drana deck before she could sustain a price tag above $20.
Sire of Stagnation – $11.99
When Consecrated Sphinx came out, it was a bulk mythic. No one thought that a six-mana creature that doesn’t impact the game right away could be good in
Constructed Magic. To be fair, we were all a little spoiled by the Titans back then.
Sire of Stagnation seems like it’s a $12 card only because of Consecrated Sphinx. Six mana to cast, beefy body, double draw trigger almost every
turn…that’s Consecrated Sphinx, right?
Not quite. The lack of evasion on Sire of Stagnation is a real downgrade, as are its stricter color requirements. The bigger problem, of course, is that
you can no longer count on the draw triggers. Unlike Consecrated Sphinx, your opponent gets to choose whether or not you get to draw your cards by simply
not playing any more lands. If it’s late enough in the game, you simply aren’t going to get more than a 5/7 body out of your six mana investment.
Sire of Stagnation might show up in tournaments, but it will likely be in small numbers or out of the sideboard in U/B Control or Esper Dragons against the
bigger ramp decks. It’ll be better in casual and Commander play-this card’s upside is so much greater in multiplayer-but that won’t provide enough demand
to keep the price over $10. I’d be shocked if Sire isn’t $3-$4 by the end of the year.
Part the Waterveil – $4.99
Foil copies of Part the Waterveil should hold their value-I can already tell that the waterfall art will look awesome in foil. Commander players love their
Time Walks, too.
There’s so much to do on the top of the curve in Battle for Zendikar that I doubt tournament players are going to want to run this, though. The
two-for-one at nine mana is pretty great, but the exile clause eliminates any combo shenanigans and paying six mana for a regular Time Walk just isn’t that
good. Part the Waterveil looks like one of those cards that’ll be $2 forever before randomly ending up at $6 someday. Foils should be $10 at least, though,
so keep your eyes open for those.
Dragonmaster Outcast – $4.99
Will Dragonmaster Outcast make more of an impact this time around? I doubt it. Despite having just come from Tarkir, Dragon tribal still isn’t really a
thing. And I doubt the ramp decks will have room for a card that doesn’t get you more mana, stall the game out, control the board, or win the game on the
top of the curve.
Casual players will be all over Dragonmaster Outcast, of course, but this set is going to be opened in quantities large enough to fill that demand. This’ll
be a $3 mythic before long.
Quarantine Field – $4.99
Quarantine Field is one of the toughest cards in the set to evaluate. Its power level is so dependent on so many other factors. In some formats, a scalable
Oblivion Ring like this would be an all-star. In others, you’re just be asking for a blowout at the hands of Dromoka’s Command.
Some people are comparing this to Silence the Believers, which makes sense, but the difference between ‘target creature’ and ‘target nonland permanent’ can
be huge. I do think Quarantine Field will find a home, but I doubt it’ll see play in more than one deck or even as a four-of. The better this gets, the
more the metagame will shift against it, giving it a pretty hard ceiling. Even if Quarantine Field shows up in a very good deck and spikes to $10, I doubt
it can sustain that mark. Quarantine Field will be a $3-$5 card if it sees play and a bulk mythic if it doesn’t.
Endless One – $3.99
I’m trying to think of the last time a creature even half as vanilla as Endless One saw significant play and I’m having trouble coming up with an answer.
It’s possible that the ramp deck will want a couple of these as versatile midrange blockers that can go big in the lategame, but I’m not sold, especially
considering the existence of the next card we’re going to look at. Creatures that lack abilities just aren’t good. Future $1 rare.
Woodland Wanderer – $3.99
Woodland Wanderer is about as good as a french vanilla midrange creature can be. In Abzan, it’s an easy 5/5 with vigilance and trample on turn 3 or 4. The
fact that this can take down a Siege Rhino and live to tell the tale is really important.
How much play will Woodland Wanderer see? Well, it’s only good in a midrange deck that’s running at least three colors, one of which is green. That sounds
kind of narrow, but that’s the sort of deck that has been dominating Standard for the past year or so. If Woodland Wanderer only ends up in one flavor of
Abzan, it’s a $2-$3 card. If it ends up in some kind of Temur brew or we end up with multiple Abzan Midrange decks (or even Five-Color Midrange), I could
see it in the $5-$6 range for a month or two.
As with most rares in this set, though, there’s just no upside at $4. It’ll be $2 in a flash if it doesn’t see play, and there’s no chance it can sustain a
price higher than about $6. Stay away unless you really want to build around it.
Scatter to the Winds – $2.99
I’m pretty sad that Scatter to the Winds isn’t an uncommon, too. Most of the ‘Cancel with upside’ cards have been uncommon in the past, but I suppose we’re
just going to have to make peace with Scatter to the Winds being a little harder to get than Dissolve was.
Rarity grumblings aside, Scatter to the Winds is a very strong card. Three mana counterspells are Standard staples these days, and this one is a
two-for-one once you hit six mana. These kinds of solid but unspectacular role-players hold their value well, and I doubt we’ll see Scatter to the Winds
drop below $2. If blue-based control ends up being good, Scatter to the Winds could even enjoy a few weeks in the $5-$6 range. Feel free to buy these at
retail if you’re a control player, and they’re a fine card to trade into this week if you’re looking for BFZ cards likely to hold their value.
Ally Encampment – $2.99
The long-term prognosis for Ally Encampment is decent, but in the short term it’ll take a tier one Ally deck to spike this above $3-$4. It might hit $5-$6
for a few weeks if Allies breaks out in a tournament and there’s a mad scramble for these, but the supply should be high enough to keep Ally Encampment in
the $1 range for the majority of its life in Standard. The card is just too narrow, and there aren’t any supply issues like with Sliver Hive in M15.
Wasteland Strangler – $1.99
So-how likely is your opponent to have a card in exile? Your percentages are going to have to be over 50% before you can consider playing this. Wasteland
Strangler is a pretty good one-two punch with Fathom Feeder, though, and I suspect that will be the line that U/B Control will try to take against aggro
decks in the new format. If that deck ends up being good, both cards should trade well between $2-$3. If not, they’ll both head toward bulk pretty quickly.
Much like with the other good cards in BFZ, buying in now is fine if you want to build it yourself, but you should stay away otherwise. There’s no spec
upside for such narrow cards like this.
Painful Truths – $1.99
Painful Truths is the most powerful card in the set that no one is talking about. Casting this for three isn’t all that hard, and there are very few cards
in the game of Magic that allow you to draw three cards for three mana or less. Painful Truths is good in Abzan. Painful Truths is good in Esper. Painful
Truths will find at least one tier one home, and it could find two or more.
Painful Truths doesn’t have much upside simply because it’s a rare in Battle for Zendikar, but paying less than $10 for a playset of such an
impactful card isn’t the worst idea in the world. Even better? Grab some foils if they start cheap enough. Painful Truths might be Modern playable, so the
foil has an outside shot to be a $20-$25 card. If it debuts at $4-$5, I’m grabbing a set.
Noyan Dar, Roil Shaper – $1.49
A gold-colored 4/4 for five that requires you to play another spell before it does something? No thanks. I’ve heard rumblings about a Jeskai Ascendancy
combo deck that uses Noyan Dar, but I can’t see it being any good if it requires you to have a creature this clunky on the battlefield. Foils should hold
value thanks to Commander demand, but this is a future bulk rare.
Ugin’s Insight – $1.49
I love how flavorful Ugin’s Insight is, but I can’t see control decks wanting to tap out for this at sorcery speed. Dragonlord’s Prerogative is still
Standard legal, and that’s a bulk rare right now. I expect Ugin’s Insight will be heading toward bulk as well, at least until the other good draw spells
rotate out.
Aligned Hedron Network – $0.99
There is a world where Aligned Hedron Network is a reasonable sideboard card-for midrange decks, perhaps against ramp strategies. The fact that Aligned
Hedron Network doesn’t hit Siege Rhino makes your own rhinos that much more powerful after you drop this, but that interaction is so clunky and situational
that I don’t see it happening very often. Future bulk rare.
Sanctum of Ugin – $0.99
I doubt the earlygame opportunity cost will be enough to make Sanctum of Ugin work. The ramp deck is going to need access to multiple colors early on, and
if you’re casting giant Eldrazi late in the game, you probably don’t want to sacrifice any of your lands. Sanctum might end up as a two-of in the ramp
deck, but it’s so bad in every other case that I can’t imagine it’ll be anything more than a bulk rare.
Dust Stalker – $0.99
Dust Stalker reminds me of Pitiless Horde, which is both more splashable and more versatile. Perhaps having both of these cards in Standard at once will
help make them both playable, or perhaps having Drana around will be enough, but right now it has the look of a future bulk rare.
Emeria Shepherd – $0.99
Emeria Shepherd is a beautiful card, and I’ll be wanting a foil copy or two for Commander, but a seven-mana 4/4(!!) that doesn’t impact the battlefield
unless you have another land in your hand and isn’t actually good unless you have multiple Plains in your hand isn’t going to be a Constructed card. Bulk
rare.
Bulk Rares:
Exert Influence, Prism Array, Gruesome Slaughter, Guul Draz Overseer, Angelic Captain, Serpentine Spike.
Older Cards I’m Keeping an Eye On
Hardened Scales
– There are quite a few BFZ cards that interact well with Hardened Scales, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up seeing a good deal of play.
Dragonlord Atarka
– Quite simply, I’m not sure that there’s a better creature to ramp into than this.
Dragonlord Silumgar
– If we do end up in a world with giant creatures rumbling around, Silumgar will end up being significantly better than he is now.
See the Unwritten
– It’s $8.99 mostly on hype and speculation. Now it’s time to see this card in action.
Explosive Vegetation
– This $0.25 uncommon is probably better than any ramp spell in Battle for Zendikar. It could hit $1 or $1.50 if the ramp deck is good and it
wants a full set of these.
Rattleclaw Mystic
– The ramp deck probably runs 3-4 of these, too, right? Some upside in the $5 range.
Ghostfire Blade
– it’s already seeing a bunch of Standard play, and the proliferation of Scion tokens only makes it better. Heck, it even sees play in Modern now.
This Week’s Trends
– Standard risers: Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, Kolaghan’s Command, Den Protector, Shaman of Forgotten Ways, Hardened Scales, and Rattleclaw Mystic.
– Standard fallers: Nissa, Vastwood Seer, Dragonlord Ojutai, Liliana, Heretical Healer, Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh, Kytheon, Hero of Akros, Archangel of
Tithes, Exquisite Firecraft, Languish, and Goblin Piledriver.
– Keep an eye on Goblin Guide – it wasn’t reprinted in Battle for Zendikar, so it’s possible that someone will attempt to buy it out and spike the
price over $40. If you want a set and have been holding out, now is a fine time to buy. We still might see the card show up in the winter set, though, so
don’t go too crazy.
– Modern is wide open right now, so I don’t expect any changes when the B&R announcement comes down next week. Merfolk, Collected Company, G/R Tron,
Lantern Control, Infect, Affinity, and Abzan all won Modern IQs or Grand Prix last weekend, which is a pretty stellar amount of diversity for the format.
– Watch out for Sliver Hive and Sliver Hivelord – with M15 nothing but a mediocre memory, those two cards have finally begun to move. If you can
trade into them at retail as a long-term spec, you should.