Attention, readers: the following article contains spoiler information, including a new, exclusive card preview. If you do not want to be privy to this information, you will probably want to stop reading. If you do want to see this information, then by all means, scroll on down!
Okay, now that we have the disclaimer out of the way, let’s talk about Alara Reborn.
An All-gold set, huh? Looks interesting, and very intriguing, especially from the view of a Five-Color Control player. Let’s look at a few of the obvious implications.
Actually, let’s just show you the card. If I don’t, half of you are probably just going to scroll down to it anyway. So, without further ado, I present to you: Giant Ambush Beetle
They say a picture is worth a thousand words, so I plan on cutting this article short. Isn’t that how it works?
Apparently not. Nuts.
Let’s examine where this card can be used, and what utility we can gain from it.
First of all, it has haste. That makes it an immediate threat. A 4/3 for 5 isn’t that great, and just adding haste doesn’t quite make up the difference. It’s still lacking, but we do have one further ability to consider before passing judgment. Still, we’ll have to count on the final ability making it worth the investment.
“When Giant Ambush Beetle comes into play, you may have target creature block it this turn if able.”
At first blush, I have to admit, I was very excited about this ability. I can kill whatever creature of theirs I want to! I can break creature stalemates by muddying up the blocking math, swinging the advantage to my favor! Nice! I had dreams of killing off Hierarchs, and having a 4/3 to show for it.
But the more I started thinking about it, the less I was impressed, and I didn’t get quite as psyched about it. The creatures that I wanted to take out the most are the ones that stay out of combat, naturally. But Hierarch can just tap itself, thus making it ineligible to block. Same with Birds of Paradise, and a host of other annoying creatures with Tap abilities. Which would you rather do, burn for one or lose your Noble Hierarch? The truth is, whichever is more beneficial, you get to choose, and I just lost that advantage of controlling the combat step right back to you.
I could use it to take out Rafiq of the Many, Rhox War Monk, or Stoic Angel in an Exalted Deck. But I lose my guy too, which makes this a five-mana terror. In fact, about the only three cards I could think of, in Standard, that I would really want to make block me, are Gaddock Teeg, Tidehollow Sculler, and Siege-Gang Commander (If they just dropped it and/or are tapped out) Everything else, in Standard, either isn’t worth it, or kills the Beetle right back. Compared to, say, Shriekmaw, it costs the same, is harder to splash, has +1/+1 but doesn’t have quite the variety of targets that Shriekmaw does. And the Shriekmaw has evoke.
In Block, it could see some play in the Jund or Naya Aggro deck, but I still don’t see it being very strong. Block has other removal that is more efficient and versatile. And the creature side isn’t as great either. I’d rather have any number of five-drops, such as the recently revealed Blitz Hellion.
Where do I see Giant Ambush Beetle fitting in? In Limited, I think it’s an excellent choice as a removal spell, and it will still have a decent chance to stick around. It’s a 0 for 1 trade. I lose a card in hand, gain a card in play, and they lose a card in play. It’s not terribly efficient, but it should be good enough for the mid picks. I expect to see this in the main deck if you are in the right colors in Sealed. It’ll take out random grizzly bears, and still leave you with a creature in play. Expect the opponent to double block, rather than chump with the targeted sacrificial lamb, so as to at least trade another one for one.
In Draft, expect this card to go in the low single digits, probably a 6-9th pick, with some expected variance.
Snap Judgment: Limited mid-pick (Snap Judgment term courtesy of Michael J.)
Okay, where were we? Ah right, implications of an All-gold set. Here we go:
1) Nothing too great for Aggro or weenie
If indeed the set is all gold, and not hybrid, then there will be no cards with converted mana cost 1. While Aggro or Weenie decks may pick up a few good card with converted mana cost 2 and up, not adding anything to an admittedly weak one-drop pool mean we’re more likely to see more ramp decks instead. Bant ramp, Dark Bant, and other decks that seek to skip the two-drop by opening with turn 1 mana accelerator, turn1 play a three-drop. This has a doubly painful effect on Block Constructed, where manabases are even slower for multi-colored decks, and Aggro decks could really use a strong one-drop. Expect Control to do well at Pro Tour: Honolulu
2) The more diverse your color selection, the greater the rewards
Five-Color Control decks probably have he most to gain from an all-gold set than any other decks. While typical U/B Faeries is still running Terror, the Five-Color player can run Terminate, and not even bat an eye at the so-called “restrictions” of making it multi-colored. Meddling Mage can be run alongside that as well, giving them a card with the versatility of Runed Halo or Pithing Needle. Meanwhile, Vengeant Control needs to either add colors, or hope they find something in the right colors. Same goes with Faeries, although I see even more reason for Faeries to add White now. Meddling Mage can proactively answer Volcanic Fallout, and add in to that Path to Exile, Celestial Purge, and Esper Charm already, and there may be enough incentive to take the plunge. Keep in mind that this also allows you to play anything new in U/B, U/W, and B/W, instead of just U/B. Bant and Dark Bant decks should also see a more noticeable boost than the one- or two-colored archetypes. One card I’m going to try out in Dark Bant is Marisi’s Twinclaws.
She has converted mana cost four, so we’ll be playing her on turn 3, and she’ll be swinging for eight damage on turn 4 with Doran in play. She is double pumped by Wilt-Leaf Liege, so she can get ridiculous late game. However, she is incredibly vulnerable to removal, but then again, that’s a weakness of Dark Bant.
3) Alara Block is a lot like Time Spiral Block.
Time Spiral was never the more dominant of the two blocks in Standard. When Ravnica was legal, it had a defining effect on the format, and when Lorwyn came in and replaced Ravnica, it was more dominant.
Of course, there are a few exceptions (DragonStorm and Pickles come to mind) but even at Worlds NYC, we saw a lot of Elves, Doran, and other Lorwyn block staples. I don’t see Shards block being the one everyone builds around.
I think we’ll see a definite shift back to realistic color limitations. Unless Alara Reborn has some sort of crazy lands (Which I really hope it does) we’re going to be powering down to three or maybe four colors. I imagine we’ll see four-color decks with a light splash for the fifth, similar to Nassif’s Kyoto build that only had Broodmate Dragon requiring Green.
Moving on, I want to look at what archetypes should see a decent boost.
Looking at what little of the set I know, I really think Blightning should get some good cards to help strengthen the archetype. Terminate is obviously good for them, and is right on color. It should help them get rid of troublesome creatures, although Finks will still be an issue.
Thought Hemorrhage is absolutely amazing, as it’s basically Cranial Extraction on steroids, and Cranial was pretty solid back when it was legal. This is a weapon that is only as strong as the mage wielding it, though. If you scout well, and are prepared against the metagame, you can use it to detrimental effect. The obvious synergy with Thoughtseize, allowing you to call your shots for maximum damage, is amazing.
Bituminous Blast has been covered, and Cascade is obviously strong, because it triggers when you play the spell, not when it resolves. I imagine that Bituminous Blast cascading into a Blightning or a Thought Hemorrhage would be pretty devastating.
I think that with a few decent creatures with Evasion, (Goblin Outlander comes to mind) add Vexing Shusher to spice, and you have the makings of a very, very strong archetype with the speed to handle Faeries, and hopefully, after tweaking, the stamina to take down Five-Color Control. I don’t know if it will be able to, but I’d be sure I had play-tested against it before shuffling up for any major event.
Five-Color Control, as previously stated, should be able to use just about anything that’s good. Thought Hemorrhage might be a decent call, especially in the mirror, and Terminate should be part of the removal suite in some amount.
Meddling Mage is another card that can seriously reward your skills outside of the game, be it metagame knowledge (knowing what the hot new tech against you is) or just plain old scouting a match-up and knowing what is best to shut off.
Finally, before we finish up this week, I want to comment on how well Wizards of the Coast has done in containing spoilers.
Many of us don’t like the lack of spoilers, and wish we could have more. But this is not what’s best for Magic. I’m going to punch out of fanboy mode for a moment and into real world business.
The people at Wizards of the Coast make a great product, which we all enjoy. But in order to do that, they have to at least break even. Early spoilers hurt sales, period. I’ve talked to the sales team, and personally had this conversation with the Brand management team of D&D Minis, which had a few major leaks from the China plant. Every time a set is spoiled early, sales fall. I don’t personally have the sales numbers, and even if I did, I doubt Wizards of the Coast would let me show them, as it’s proprietary. But I have seen them (while under an NDA, natch) and it’s almost universally true.
Furthermore, Wizards of the Coast has a marketing plan and outside marketing assistance, all crafted towards slowly increasing interest in a set, culminating in the Prerelease and Launch parties.
I personally have had a number of times in which I have had information early, and I’ve had to sit on it. I knew where U.S. Nationals was in 2008 very early, knew about the first two 2009 Pro Tour stops by 2008 Nationals this year (and I wasn’t supposed to, that’s for sure), and have seen more than my fair share of cards, minis, and books early. I know that, had I divulged that information early, it would negatively harm Wizards, and more importantly, someone I know. Let me give you a story:
In the Spring of 2006, D&D Minis was releasing a new huge set. Many of the figures were released pre-painting by someone at the factory in China. Now, these figures were spoiled early, and the emotional urge to want them rose, then fell, before they could still be bought. Heads were knocked around, but fortunately, no one was let go. That was a stronger economic time. The same thing happened last summer, and although no one was directly fired for it again, the skirmish game now no longer exists. This was a game with a lot of growth, and was running very stable for 5 years. Spoilers weren’t the only cause of the fall of the house of DDM, but let us see this cautionary tale.
Especially now, in times of economic crisis, Game Companies aren’t in the strongest positions. We’ve seen at least two rounds of layoffs. Let’s do all we can to let Wizards run their business. As Peter Jahn mentioned here, they’ve done a pretty darn good job so far.
See you next week!
Until then, this is Jeff Phillips, reminding you: Don’t make the Loser Choice