…You don’t know that the other envelope is equally likely to have twice as much money as it is to have half as much. A Bayesian expected value
calculation fails here, as it is an improper prior distribution. The house can’t actually pay in all scenarios, so we cannot actually assign 0.5 to
each possibility.
“You don’t know, hence you assign it P=0.5. That’s the point of the blog post!” -Matt Sperling
(@mtg_law_etc)
Must resume later, car crash.
…
I had a feeling this weekend jaunt to Tennessee was going to get a little hairy even before my plane came in hot and half of us hit the ceiling.
The literal ceiling of the plane.
To say the weather was a bit harsh in Memphis would be an understatement, but to describe it as a storm of biblical proportions? Well, I think that kind of
talk gets thrown around a bit more than is probably warranted. This was nothing compared to GP Dallas 2013, for instance.
Luis Scott-Vargas and I got a ride from a friendly Magic player, Cameron Jones, from the airport to the site, 25 miles away.
Of course it took three and a half hours.
I guess technically, our plane was only about four hours late, but the airport was so coated with ice, it took us two hours to get from the runway we
landed on to the dock and off the plane. What made it so crazy was the lack of equipment to deal with this kind of situation. It’s never like that
in Dallas.
Memphis, Tennessee?
It’s not common, but this isn’t their first rodeo. So all things considered, it wasn’t actually all that bad. Particularly since I wasn’t hurt in the car
accident!
My taxi was going a relatively modest 35 miles per hour on the freeway when we reached the summit of a bridge/hill of insanity. As we began the
rollercoaster descent, it was sheer pandemonium. There were accidents left and right, all the result of a combination of black ice coating everything and a
bad accident on the bridge, just out of sight of people going up it.
The cab driver dodged the first crash, but very obviously did not have the use of brakes to assist in his evasive maneuvers. He turned us hard to the left
trying to not spin out while also dodging another car that was in the process of spinning all the way around. It then looked like he was trying to run us
into the side, to try to stop us, but we were on a bridge and he needed to get down more before that wouldn’t be criminally insane.
Sadly, down was where the rest of the accidents were. There was no dodging the next one, and we crashed into another car that had been trying to avoid
running over the side of the bridge.
Being incredibly lucky, I was unhurt, but the cab wasn’t drivable. I got out and checked other nearby vehicles to make sure others were okay and could get
to safety. Fortunately, there was a police officer not far away, parked in a particularly odd position on the bridge. Surely, they can’t be caught up in
the cross-fire? Can they?
The cab driver was non-plussed about the whole affair, particularly after some conversation he had with “his people.” He told me it would be a couple hours
before someone would be able to give me a ride.
I got places to go! People to see! Formats to break!
After it was clear everyone was okay, I asked the police officer about what was needed of me, if I needed to stick around. They told me I did not. I asked
the cab driver if he wanted my contact info to potentially help verify that he was being careful and all that, but he told me, “No.”
Umm, okay. Are you sure?
Yes, it is better if you do not.
Err, well, that is not exactly instilling confidence in me, but here’s some money for the ride. I’m less than 3 miles from my hotel. I’m just going to
walk.
The walk really wasn’t all that bad, all things considered. When I was your age, we used to have to walk fifteen miles to school, in the snow, barefoot, on
broken glass, uphill both ways. Comparatively, this was nothing.
Still, it was not without some degree of peril. The freeway I was on didn’t even have a shoulder, and it was more than a mile until I could even physically
get off of the road. Given how dangerous the conditions were and my entirely black attire, I mostly walked backwards, keeping an eye out for all incoming
traffic and trying to be as conspicuous as possible.
About half a mile into my journey, things had escalated to a point where I seriously considered going back. It was hard to walk on the road, being so
completely and thoroughly caked with ice, so I can’t even imagine trying to drive on it. I wasn’t really in a position to use my phone much, as I had to
keep my focus on the road and traffic, but I called Patrick Sullivan quickly, who had messaged me wanting to make sure I was okay. I let him know my exact
location and that I would call him back when I got to the hotel.
When I finally got to a spot where I could safely get off the road, I tried calling Uber, but road conditions were too bad and there was no one around to
pick me up. I resumed trudging through the hellish frozen landscape, guided by the beaming red Sheraton letters calling out to me in the
distance. Like a siren, the sight entranced me, filling me with purpose, making an end to this insanity real and just slightly out of reach, obtainable
with a little perseverance.
A lot of people asked me on Saturday, “Is today going better than yesterday? That sounds like the worst day ever.” I appreciate the kind words, but the
thing is, one should be so lucky as to have that be a “bad day.”
I was in a car accident where no one was hurt and I wasn’t driving! Things could be a lot worse. I am so thankful everyone was okay.
I had to walk nearly three miles in the cold to get to my hotel? Come on! Let’s call a spade a spade. I didn’t have to walk. I got to.
Got to?
Yeah! Seriously! I could have just waited in the car, but I preferred to walk and get on with things. I appreciate having that option! What if I was hurt?
What if I had too much stuff to carry? What if I didn’t have an absurdly strong immune system that gave me great confidence that I could walk a few miles
in the cold and not get sick?
So, I had a little adventure. How is that a bad thing? I’m not exactly looking to make these walks a regular routine, but it certainly made the day
interesting.
When I finally stumbled into my hotel room, I sat down for a much deserved rest. With room service en route, I flipped open my laptop and set to work
finalizing my list.
I think in my heart of hearts, I kind of always knew I was going to play Abzan Midrange (or Control, or whatever). A lot of my friends were playing Jeskai,
similar to Martin Juza, and I couldn’t blame them. However, the format looked very much like one in which there was very little edge playing the “best
deck” for the week, versus playing the seventh best. Instead, the edge was largely found in the actual playing of the deck. Knowing your deck, the
matchups, the format, that seemed like the battleground where a lot more edge was actually up for grabs. I had a ton of experience with Abzan Midrange, and
much less for Jeskai.
Besides, at GP Denver, I played Abzan Aggro instead of Abzan Midrange. It might have even been a better choice for that field, and it certainly served Matt
Sperling and William Jensen well, but I realized almost immediately that I was out of my element. It’s not that I didn’t know what I was doing. It’s just
that so much of the foundation I had built with regards to playing the format was gone. The patterns I knew were not the ones involved with this deck.
My plan had been to come up with a list for Abzan Midrange, then if I didn’t like the way it looked, I would play Jeskai or U/B Control. However, some
people I trust thought this was a risky week to play U/B Control, right on the heels of its big win at the GP. The U/B Control decks in this format are not
exactly overflowing with power, so if people slant their decks to beat them, well, you don’t want to force it.
I had a lot of ideas I wanted to try for Abzan, but with no time to test, I decided this wasn’t the place to deviate too much from the well-beaten path. It
looked like it might be so easy to accidentally ruin the deck, whereas, if I just played something proven, I could reduce some of the volatility.
Early in the week, I had compiled a list of all of the Abzan Midrange and Control decks to cash major tournaments and set about aggregating them, using my
best judgment when it came to rounding (and eliminating stuff that just seemed bad to me).
When I was done, I had a list I knew I wanted to be close to, and in fact, I only ended up changing one card in the maindeck and three in the sideboard.
There’s a time to blaze a new trail, but there’s also a time to play something stock. Here’s the list I registered:
Creatures (9)
Planeswalkers (5)
Lands (26)
Spells (20)
My aggregated list had originally featured an Utter End maindeck, rather than the fourth Hero’s Downfall, but Utter End costs soooo much. I’ve
played it in each of my past builds, but now that we have Ugin, I wasn’t so sure we actually needed it. Besides, I’d rather have Hero’s Downfall number
four in the deck than an Utter End against the vast majority of opponents. I was expecting this week to be very aggressive, so I had also resolved to err
on the side of being leaner, more consistent, and better against aggro whenever possible.
Seeing that most of the lists these days featured zero Sylvan Caryatid made sense to me, as I wanted to board it out in most matchups. The tough thing was
that I expected Jeskai and R/W Aggro to be the most popular macro-archetype, and that is where you want Sylvan Caryatid most.
I had considered cutting a Sandsteppe Citadel for a Temple of Plenty, as I absolutely love the Temples. They are seriously so incredibly powerful. The
thing is, I really want to be able to cast Bile Blight, Hero’s Downfall, and Drown in Sorrow early. I thought I could probably get away with the Temple,
and even considered a second Urborg, but in the end, decided to stick with my gameplan of being leaner, more consistent, and better against aggro.
Black mana is always a bottleneck in these types of Abzan decks. Windswept Heath generally means you have at least eight lands locked in that don’t produce
black, which generally doesn’t give you a whole lot of leeway to use other non-black lands and still think you’re casting Bile Blight early. The old Abzan
decks could get away with it a lot easier, as Sylvan Caryatid on 2 made casting Bile Blight on 3 trivially easy. Without Caryatids, we are just going to
have to be a bit more modest with our manabase.
Some of the lists I saw featured only 25 lands and multiple Ugins. That is insane to me. Without Caryatids or Sylvan Wayfinders, how in the hell are you
expecting to cast all these eight-drops? I rounded up to 26 for my aggregate list, but after a day of actually playing, I would play 27 next time. Most of
my game losses were from not having enough lands, and it’s not like we can’t make up the cards. We’re playing Read the Bones, Abzan Charm, Elspeth, and
Ugin. We’ll be alright as long as we can cast our spells. Besides, that makes it easier to sideboard out a land!
The other idea that seems kind of appealing to me is adding a Satyr Wayfinder or two. I could even see cutting a Sandsteppe Citadel for a Temple of Plenty,
then adding one or two Wayfinders, effectively upping the black count enough to make up for the swap.
Wayfinder seems kind of sweet anyway, as we’re real short on early plays, and the format is so aggressive. Even if it just chumps, that extra life goes a
long way. Besides, after a day of matches, it is clear I need to be playing more Tasigurs. That card is really, really good. Outside of all of the usual
things a 4/5 for three or less does for you, I really enjoyed how effective it was against the countless copies of Glare of Heresy I faced.
I think I want to try three maindeck Tasigurs, which obviously starts making Satyr Wayfinder look like a superstar. Three Murderous Cuts is a lot after
sideboarding, but they have been pretty great, and the Wayfinder plays right into them. I kind of just want to go Bile Blight into Hero’s Downfall into
Read the Bones and Murderous Cut in the same turn (thanks to a Windswept Heath or a Thoughtseize, etc).
Let’s see, wouldn’t be caught dead with less than the maximum Coursers and Rhinos. Those are the two best cards in the deck and two of the best cards in
the format. As for the ‘walkers, I think I could go for a little tweaking (not to be confused with twerking).
Sorin has really lost a lot of value lately. It’s not even Fate Reforged either. Once Jeskai moved towards tokens, Sorin’s shine started to fade. Tokens
isn’t very popular now, but the Sorin just isn’t winning as many games as he used to. I love the lifegain, of course, but if I were to register tomorrow,
I’d swap out the Sorin for a Tasigur, the Golden Fang.
The one Ugin was an all-star. I could imagine a second one, if we moved towards more Satyr Wayfinder, but I am most interested in playing exactly one. I
wondered if I should have been playing Liliana main (helping justify it because of her ability to search for Ugin), however, a day of playing has me more
confident that Liliana doesn’t belong main, and frankly, if we are looking for room in the sideboard, she is far from vital.
The three Elspeths surprised me. I thought I was going to be a bit disappointed with three Elspeths, wanting to trim, perhaps going down to two. My matches
in the tournament itself were all over the place, but Elspeth was awesome, and I would definitely not go down.
Four Thoughtseize seemed to be the only amount most people played, but in retrospect, I think it’s defensible to play three. I kind of still lean towards
four, but I am not super confident in that number and could definitely see trimming one if we need space somewhere. The format is so aggressive.
Thoughtseize is awesome against Jeskai, but I am lukewarm on it against Abzan Aggro, G/R Aggro, and Red Heroic.
Bile Blight as a three-of was awesome, and if I were to do things again, I would just pull the trigger on the fourth. I contemplated playing four here, but
you only have room for so much removal. That said, I’d rather have Bile Blight than End Hostilities versus basically everyone. One End Hostilities seems
kind of funny, but I am not above it. It’s not like it’s even that good in the format.
I made a last minute judgment call to play a fourth Hero’s Downfall instead of an Utter End, and in retrospect, I was pleased with the swap. Utter End
costs so much. The Utter End in the sideboard isn’t even that good either, and I could easily imagine cutting it. The massive increase in
popularity of Stormbreath Dragon doesn’t help matters. Besides, the decline of Perilous Vault reduces the value, while U/B (and other control decks) play
more planeswalkers (Ugin and Ashiok), so Hero’s Downfall gains.
Abzan Charm is an auto-four-of, and in fact, I am playing two Read the Bones for more of that love. I considered playing a third Read the Bones, expecting
the format to be very attrition-based, but looking back, I have been happy with two plus two on the Bones-tip. As good as Abzan Charm is, it is totally
fine to sideboard out, particularly against aggressive Stormbreath Dragon decks. It’s also okay to board out some or all of your Abzan Charms while keeping
some amount of the Read the Bones in your deck.
The one Murderous Cut was great, and while I wouldn’t hate a second one maindeck, I would rather make room for the fourth Bile Blight, first. As for End
Hostilities, well it was solid, but I don’t think it’s out of the question to move the second to the board (though it’s also fine, maindeck).
The sideboard is mostly just more removal, with just enough threats and card draw to ensure that we can sideboard properly against control decks (generally
starting by cutting 3 Bile Blights, 1 Murderous Cut, 2 End Hostilities for 2 Read the Bones, 1 Nissa, Worldwaker, 1 Liliana Vess, 1 Tasigur, the Golden
Fang, and 1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon).
This brings up one of the changes I ended up making to the sideboard, compared to the aggregate list. The aggregate list had a Garruk, Apex Predator
instead of the second Ugin. I think Garruk is sweet, no question, but when I looked at all the matches, I just couldn’t find enough places where I wanted
Garruk to be worth just how many spots Ugin would have been vastly superior. A day of matches has only confirmed my opinion. Ugin is just a much, much stronger Magic card.
The other last minute sideboard tweaks were to cut Erase and Drown in Sorrow for a second Murderous Cut and a Pharika’s Cure. My thinking on Erase was more
of the same Ugin line of thought that maybe I had those bases covered. Our sideboard slots are pretty valuable, and Erase isn’t that high impact.
It is real efficient, and there are plenty of people it hits, but I am just not sold on it pulling its weight.
As for the third Drown in Sorrow, I was a bit skeptical of how often I would board it in. It’s obviously awesome against Mono-Red Heroic, but I expected
less tokens and less Hornet Queens, so I wasn’t sure we really needed so many Drowns, particularly when we have access to Pharika’s Cure and Drown in
Sorrow. Paul Rietzl and I cut all of the Drowns from our sideboard at Worlds, and I wish I had access to at least two. This time, I kept two in the board
and never really felt lacking. People that lose to Drown warp their strategy around trying to hang against it.
Pharika’s Cure is a card after Michael Flores’s heart. It doesn’t just solve your problems, it gives you a nice bit of value to boot! I played one
Pharika’s Cure in Dublin and then a couple times over the next year in the sideboards of various black midrange decks. Bile Blight is the best card in your
deck in a variety of matches, and Pharika’s Cure does a pretty passable “Bile Blight impression,” giving you another two-drop removal spell that can kill
Goblin Rabblemaster and some other creatures that are less important than Goblin Rabblemaster. One day of games in, and I am happy with the one Cure,
though I never drew it, despite sideboarding it in a ton.
…
As I sat down to play my first round (round four), I was feeling good and looking forward to the matches. My opponent was playing an exotic Naya aggro
deck, dropping a turn 2 Rabblemaster on the play. A couple manascrews later, and I was forced to roll a morale saving-throw. It was such a journey to get
here. Why did I have to lose to manascrew!? Oh yeah. I was playing Magic. That’s part of the range of experiences.
Round five, my opponent was on Jeskai Tokens. I started strong, but a series of unlikely events lead to a miraculous comeback by my opponent. It would have
been easy to focus on the “unlucky” draws I had, but truth be told, I could have sideboarded a little better. I also had a situation where I could have
Windswepth Heathed for a Plains or a Forest. It didn’t look like it mattered, so I grabbed a Forest, thinking about subtlety bluffing Hornet Queen. The
problem was that I already had a Forest. Yes, I had double of everything, but a few turns later, I ended up in the awkward position of having a Glare of
Heresy and a Bile Blight, but I was unable to play both in the same turn thanks to my two Forests.
At this point I was definitely a bit frustrated, particularly now that I had a loss that might have been preventable. Maybe. I was starting to feel some of
the frustration of the last Pro Tour. Why did things all fall apart?
Round six, I was up a game, but things were looking bad in game 2. My opponent was on Abzan Midrange, though with Fleecemane Lion. He had a Sorin at 5, an
Elspeth at 6, and a Nissa, Worldwaker. I had been manascrewed all game, while Siege Rhinos on turns 3, 4, and 5 put me on the defensive. I was down 2 – 40,
and my only non-land permanent was an Elspeth (with my opponent never able to get ahead on Elspeth tokens, but ahead by half a turn on hitting ultimate).
I was a goner. After all, he had a Nissa land and three tokens. I had three tokens. The Nissa land has trample. Time to pack it up and move to game three?
WWRDD?
What would Reid Duke do?
I’ll tell you what he wouldn’t do. He wouldn’t concede. How are we going to win the game if we concede?
So I toughed it out. My opponent bizarrely attacked with just the tokens, leaving me alive. My hand was Thoughtseize, Read the Bones, and Ugin (with 7
lands).
I untap and draw…
Well, that’s not the worst. Come on! Let’s get see a land on top.
Well, that doesn’t do what I need. I almost conceded at this point, but if he didn’t attack with his land last turn, maybe he won’t this turn. I passed the
turn, and he ticked up all three walkers, all three threatening ultimate. Now, he was with two animated lands and three tokens. He considered his options,
then shipped the turn again!
Now, in his defense, he was ill and very drained from a long weekend. Nevertheless, this meant I had another turn. I untapped and drew my Nissa. The top
card?
Okay. Let’s do this. I played the Llanowar Wastes, went up to three, and then used Elspeth’s minus ability to kill the Nissa lands. From there, I dropped
Ugin, used the minus for six, and swept the board. Now time for the grind!
There were many more turns in which a Siege Rhino would have killed me, but I fought hard to try to mount the comeback. Should I Read the Bones? I was at
three…
I decided to go ahead and do it, finding a Murderous Cut and a Siege Rhino. The Rhino put me out of Rhino range the other way, and the Murderous Cut
stabilized the board. How in the world did I win this game?
Thank God for Reid Duke.
Round seven, I was up against Red Heroic. I got smashed game 1, with him coming out too fast. Games 2 and 3, however, I was able to leverage Bile Blights
and Drown in Sorrows to slow him down enough for Tasigur and Siege Rhino to take over. The biggest thing here was playing around Harness By Force (and it
turned out that he actually had it).
Round eight, I was up against another Abzan deck, this time aggro. Game 1 was a strange one in which I lost somewhere around turn 25, ground out by
Rakshasa Deathdealer. After that, however, I turned things around, eventually eeking out the wins I was looking for.
Finally, round nine, my endboss (for day 1) was on Naya Aggro (G/R Aggro splashing white for Chained to the Rocks and Valorous Stance, as I eventually
found out). Game 1, he had Mana Confluence and a Forest along with an Heir of the Wilds, but he was very obviously stuck on mana. I wondered if he was on
Temur or Naya, but game 2, his draws weren’t great either, and I was relatively easily able to just overpower him by hitting my land drops, killing all of
his threats, and eventually just dropping Elspeth for the win.
That pretty much brings us up to the present. My final score at the end of day 1 was 7-2, so I gotta get some sleep for day 2. I will be back Wednesday
with the conclusion to this adventure, as well as a sideboarding guide and the list I would use moving forward. See you then!