Hello everyone! Welcome to the Financial Value of Khans of Tarkir! In this article series, I’ll be taking a daily look at all of the Rares and Mythics (and Commons/Uncommons of note) as they are officially spoiled! Magic 2015 has remained a very solid set, holding value better than any Core Set in recent memory. In fact, M15 has been so strong, it’s outperforming Born of the Gods and Journey Into Nyx in average pack value! Will Khans of Tarkir make a two-set winning streak for Wizards of the Coast? Let’s find out in today’s article!
How I review:
Starting Price: The first price we assign to the card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price (Short Term): The price I believe the card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic 2015.
Future Price (Medium Term): The price I believe the card will be at by the time the next set (Khans of Tarkir) comes out.
Future Price (Long Term): The price I believe the card will be at a year from now, when M16 is released.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $8 Current Price: $8 Future Price (Short Term): $10 Future Price (Medium Term): $8 Future Price (Long Term): $8 |
This is the second block in Magic’s history that focuses on three-color combinations of cards (the first being Shards of Alara). What lessons did we learn
from that set?
1) Because the three-color cards are so color-specific, they tend to have a slightly lower value than the average card, because they have fewer decks –
casually and competitively – that can play them.
2) The value of these cards is tied to the quality of mana fixing in the format.
3) Wizards said they were going to push three-color cards and mana-fixing harder in the next three-color block than they did in Shards of Alara block.
So the result here is a card like Anafenza. Woolly Thoctar was a staple back when Shards came out, and it was a vanilla 5/4 for three mana. Anafenza takes
Thoctar, and exchanges one point of power for two relevant abilities – one that hoses Delve, and one that makes your other attacking creatures larger.
B/W seems to be the color combination that is getting a lot of love lately, and with the addition of this and Utter End, we’re looking at a very solid deck
and a Mythic Rare that will see a bunch of Standard (and potentially Modern) play over the short and long term.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $20 Current Price: $20 Future Price (Short Term): $20 Future Price (Medium Term): $15 Future Price (Long Term): $15 |
So here’s the big spoiler – Onslaught fetchlands are back! Previous to the reprint, here’s the price range on these cards:
Bloodstained Mire/Windswept Heath/Wooded Foothills: $40-$50
Flooded Strand: $60-$80
Polluted Delta: $80-$100
The precedent for this reprint is the shocklands coming back in Return to Ravnica. When that happened, the majority of the reprinted shocklands started at
$15-$20, and then settled in the $10-$15 range about six months after release (depending on playability).
Here are my thoughts about these fetchlands:
1) The initial price on the original printing of these fetchlands (Onslaught) were 2-3x higher than the initial prices of the first Ravnica block
shocklands.
2) When shocklands were reprinted, they were already Modern legal (since Ravnica block was legal in Modern). Many people who were interested in Modern
already owned these cards (though probably a minority, given the growth in Modern over the past two years), whereas very few Modern players have a reason
to already own the Onslaught fetchlands.
3) Shocklands are playable in Modern and Standard. Fetchlands are playable in Vintage, Legacy, Modern, and Standard.
4) Due to the increase in price of MTGO redemptions and the problems with trading on MTGO right now, there are going to be significantly fewer
number of Khans sets redeemed than Return to Ravnica sets.
5) The full Return to Ravnica Block was drafted for a year, plus the third set (Dragon’s Maze) had additional shocklands reprinted in the guildgate slot.
What’s this all mean? I believe that while the fetchlands will drop in value some from where they are starting right now, that this drop will be much, much
less steep than what happened with the shocklands. If you need these to play with, I’d advise picking them up at their current prices; you will likely be
able to trade them away down the road for close to the same price you paid on them.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
These three-color cards are going to be hard to judge in a vacuum, because they require such specific decks to build-around. As an Instant, Crackling Doom has potential for Standard play.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
While I know that double strike is a crowd favorite, five mana for a 3/3 creature without evasion or a relevant non-combat ability is not something that will be played in a serious Constructed format.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $0.75 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
There have been fringe formats where seven-mana Day of Judgments effects have seen play. These usually though are Mono-White cards, and not as hard to cast as Duneblast. While the effect is undeniably powerful, chances are that if you want a board sweeper, you want it at four or (at most) five mana, and not seven.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
I think people are missing that once Return to Ravnica Block rotates, this is going to be the defacto board sweeper in Standard. Five mana tends to be the lower end of power for board sweepers, but if this is the only choice at this slot, it’ll see a good amount of Standard play.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $25 Current Price: $25 Future Price (Short Term): $20 Future Price (Medium Term): $20 Future Price (Long Term): $20 |
See Bloodstained Mire. Keep in mind that Blue fetchlands have a higher value than non-Blue ones.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
Currently being underrated. This reminds me of Ramosian Sergeant, in that if you don’t deal with it within the first two turns, it’ll start getting out of hand quickly. This is decent early, mid, and late-game. While a little slow, growing your guy while throwing out chump blockers every turn is an interesting turn of abilities that should see some Standard play.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Likely a bulk rare, but it will have great casual appeal. Because of the number of times it copies a spell, could potentially see play if a combo deck emerges that abuses this card. I don’t think that’s likely, but keep it in mind over the next few months.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1.50 |
This is the type of card that casual players love. As a five mana 5/7, it has a large-enough body to merit a look in Constructed. I just don’t think the untap ability is particularly playable, given that it’s very conditional.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
I’ll repeat myself – these three-color, three-mana cards are hard to judge until all of the mana fixing for this set has been revealed. With that said, the first ability on this card is extremely strong (and can generate multiple tokens a turn if you attack with multiple non-token creatures), and the third ability fights Anger of the Gods very well. I believe this Ascendancy has room to jump in value if mana fixing is good enough in this block.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $15 Current Price: $6 Future Price (Short Term): $8 Future Price (Medium Term): $15 Future Price (Long Term): $15 |
I think Narset is currently the most underrated card that’s been spoiled so far. People are pidgeon-holing Narset as a Commander-only card. I see Narset as
one of the best Standard finishers in quite some time:
1) It’s virtually unkillable due to hexproof (removal is tending right now towards efficient spot-removal and not towards board sweepers).
2) When it attacks, you might get up to four free cards. Yes, the condition is non-creature – but you get to play the cards for free, and that’s a
HUGE advantage in the game. I can’t think of a card that had such a low barrier of entry to getting free mana (since it’s likely you’ll be able to attack
with Narset), and if you are able to attack and Narset survives – you’d be hard pressed to not win the game at that point.
At the current price of $6, I’d recommend picking Narset up – I truly think that Narset is being massively undervalued right now.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Compare to Tombstalker:
1) Tombstalker costs one less mana
2) Tombstalker has one more point of power
3) Tombstalker has no other ability, whereas Necropolis Fiend can kill other creatures.
I don’t think Necropolis Fiend is worth being written-off like it is right now, but that extra mana/point of power makes a big difference between this and
Tombstalker. It’s a closer comp than people are giving it credit for.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $25 Current Price: $25 Future Price (Short Term): $30 Future Price (Medium Term): $25 Future Price (Long Term): $30 |
The crown jewel of fetchlands. At $25, this is one of our (if not our) fastest-selling preorder cards in SCG’s history. I’m likely going to have to go up to $30, since we’re getting close to selling through the amount we offer for presale. This is the only one of the five fetches I believe will end up going up in value in the long term.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $5 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $6 Future Price (Long Term): $5 |
The Buy-a-Box promo. The past two Buy-A-Box promos were Goblin Rabblemaster (M15) and Eidolon of Blossoms (Journey into Nyx). Both were not hurt in value by the Buy-A-Box printing, since people often want to get non-foil versions of cards to play with.
Rattleclaw Mystic will be a huge boon to ramp decks; they will be going from three mana on turn 3 to six mana on turn 4 (flip Rattleclaw, and then tap it for mana). It’s good enough that non-Temur decks are going to run Rattleclaw Mystic for ramp/mana fixing. Best of all? Unlike most morph creatures, this is a fine creature to cast without the morph, since you’ll be fixing three colors for two mana! Should be a Standard fixture for the next year.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Yes, you might live the dream of morphing Sagu Mauler and dodging a removal spell. Five mana is a high morph cost, and just as likely, if you play this as a morph, it’ll die before you have the 3UG you need to flip it over.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $25 Current Price: $25 Future Price (Short Term): $30 Future Price (Medium Term): $25 Future Price (Long Term): $20 |
Will be played in Standard – it does two things really well (attacks and kills creatures), and is going to hit for four the turn it comes into play. Compare this to Stormbreath Dragon. Sarkhan is the better card, and Stormbreath Dragon has floated between $13 and $15 over the past year.
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Sidisi, Brood Tryant |
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $6 Current Price: $6 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
I reserve judgment to revisit Sidisi once we see the amount of self-mill present in the environment. Sidisi could very quickly get out of hand if there are effects like Mental Note/Thought Scour in Standard that see print in Khans block. You only get one Zombie per mill (so if you mill three cards at once, and turn over three creatures cards, you only get one zombie), but you get multiple zombies per turn if you have multiple mill effects (so if you have three effects that each mill for one, and each turns over a creature, you get three zombies). Because of this, I’d put Sidisi on a watch while we see what else is in this set.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $20 Current Price: $15 Future Price (Short Term): $15 Future Price (Medium Term): $10 Future Price (Long Term): $10 |
B/W is going to be a strong deck, and Sorin has one great ability (making 2/2 flyers), one relevant ability (the +1/+0 and lifelink lasts on your opponent’s turn, so it allows your creatures to play a great stall on defense), and one realistic-to-reach ultimate (six loyalty against four starting loyalty). Is this better than Sorin, Lord of Innistrad? I think they are very comparable, except that Solemn Visitor is harder to kill due to a higher starting loyalty.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
I think that the Ascendancies are being underrated in general, due to needing to hit all three colors on turn 3 (or 2, with mana fixing) to get the most out of them. Still – let’s say you get this down on turn 3. Starting turn 4, you’ll start pumping out four-power (or greater) creatures that are hasted cantrips. That is a huge advantage in the game, because it does two things that ramp generally falls short on (haste creatures, and card advantage versus board advantage).
In addition, this triggers on creatures entering the battlefield. Saproling Burst + Fires of Yavimaya was huge back in the day, because you could start attacking immediately with 4/4 hasted creatures that could pump one to 6/6. Imagine Temur Ascendancy with Saproling Burst – instead of attacking a 4/4 (pumpable to 6/6), you’d draw three cards.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk Rare. Nothing to see here!
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $4 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
Clearly designed as a hoser for Commander to stop people who love taking infinite turns. I will note (as many have before me) that this itself becomes an infinite-turn combo with Prototype Portal.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $6 Current Price: $6 Future Price (Short Term): $10 Future Price (Medium Term): $8 Future Price (Long Term): $8 |
Tournament staple. See Hero’s Downfall – it hit $13 before it was printed in an Event Deck. Might be good enough to see Modern play and fringe Legacy play
(since it’s an Instant, and it exiles). Simple, to the point, and powerful (Editor’s Note: Adrian Sullivan did a great recap about the card that you can
read here).
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $20 Current Price: $20 Future Price (Short Term): $20 Future Price (Medium Term): $15 Future Price (Long Term): $15 |
See Bloodstained Mire.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $20 Current Price: $20 Future Price (Short Term): $20 Future Price (Medium Term): $15 Future Price (Long Term): $15 |
See Bloodstained Mire.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $5 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
Would likely have a higher value if it weren’t being printed en-mass in the Duel Deck: Speed vs. Cunning. This won’t necessarily kill its value (see
Polukranos), but it will seriously hamper its ability to get past the low-value non-Bulk Mythic price range.
Pack Value!
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any Rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any Mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
16 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Bloodstained Mire: $20
End Hostilities: $3
Flooded Strand: $25
Mardu Ascendancy: $2
Polluted Delta: $25
Utter End: $6
Windswept Heath: $20
Wooded Foothills: $20
Total Rare Value: $126
7 out of the 15 Mythic Rares have been spoiled!
Narset, Enlightened Master: $6
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker: $25
Ugin’s Nexus: $4
Total Mythic Value: $69
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($126) + 1M ($69) = $321
$321/121 = $2.65 value per pack, or $95.40 per box.
Given that we are barely into the spoiler season, this is a fantastic start to the set! The price of boxes has already climbed past $99.99 to
$109.99-$119.99 on E-bay and most major sites, so this is the first set in a while that is going to sell out the initial wave. Preorder now!
See you all tomorrow for the second article in this series!