Happy New Year everyone! I’m Ben Bleiweiss, the General Manager here at StarCityGames.com. This is my quarterly “Financial Value” series of articles, where I give my thoughts/feelings/guesses of the values of new cards as they are spoiled. We’ve got a whole bunch of cards built up to talk about, so let’s dive right in!
How I Review
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic 2015.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set comes out.
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
This is one of the five Intro Pack rares (the ones featured in alternate art foil versions as a selling point for Intro Packs). Traditionally, these have been printed in such high numbers that unless the front-facing Intro Pack rare is a killer card, it’ll be relegated to the bulk bins. Spoiler alert: all five of the Intro Pack rares from Fate Reforged are marginal, and as such I see them all as bulk rares.
I just didn’t want to start this article off by just saying “bulk rare.”
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
I see Crux of Fate following the same trajectory as End Hostilities. It’ll rise up to $4 as people need it for the short term, and then fall back down to the $2 presale price once a steady supply is available for those who want to play with it.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk rare.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk rare. Hey look, three of the first four cards are bulk rares! Don’t worry, Fate Reforged gets better; it’s just alphabetically challenged.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
I’m a huge fan of this card. The Khans ability ramps you a total of four mana a turn (since it adds GG to each of your main phases), including repaying two mana the turn you put it on the board. This is a huge boost for ramp decks or decks that rely on activation costs. The Dragons ability actually works really well in the same ramp decks because you’re going to be able to occasionally turn Frontier Siege into a one-sided Wrath of God via Hornet Queen (each of the fighting tokens has deathtouch). Right now, this is the most underrated card spoiled so far. I just hope it finds a home, because it’s objectively a very powerful card.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Jeskai Infiltrator is an interesting card. In combat, it’s going to net you an extra card likely at least once. That extra card really needs to be a creature to have a full effect. Unfortunately, at that point Jeskai Infiltrator just becomes a 2/2 dork that probably won’t hit the opponent again that game. In the end, I think this is a bulk rare.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.75 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
The value of Kolaghan is related to the number of Dragons that are going to be able to hit the board before you get to five mana. Right now, there’s not a lot to work with in Standard. Once Dragons of Tarkir comes out, this will likely change significantly. In the meanwhile, this is just too expensive to see Standard play.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $20 Current Price: $20 Future Price (Short Term): $25 Future Price (Medium Term): $20 Future Price (Long Term): $20 |
Holy cow, is this card good or what? Let’s compare this to Young Pyromancer.
Young Pyromancer Advantages
-Costs two mana.
Monastery Mentor Advantages
-Has two toughness.
-Generates tokens on non-creature spells; so enchantments, planeswalkers, and artifacts trigger it in addition to instants and sorceries.
-Has prowess.
-Generates tokens with prowess.
Young Pyromancer is a Legacy staple, and holds value as a $4 uncommon from a recent set, despite being reprinted as a three-of in an Event Deck. In every way except mana cost, Monastery Mentor is a far superior improvement to Young Pyromancer. It also gives Jeskai Ascendency decks even more durability (since they have to not only remove the Monk, but the tokens it creates as well!). While I have this card settling at $20, I also wouldn’t be surprised if it climbed higher, or if foil versions end up in the $100 range within a year (Young Pyromancer is a solid $40 foil uncommon from M14).
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Has potential as a Chandra Pyromaster/Grafted Skullcap type card. So far, virtually every one of these cards works better in Khans mode than Dragons mode, at least for Constructed. Probably worth picking up on a flier since it has potential to go up and can’t really get lower.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
All of the Sieges have potential, but it just depends how grindy the metagame gets in Standard. If Standard becomes a midrange slogfest, Palace Siege is a complete bomb that lets you recycle Gray Merchant and Siege Rhino over and over. If Standard becomes a race, this will likely just be a dead card by turn 5 – i.e. you are already effectively dead before you get any effect out of it.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk rare.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk rare. At least it’s a strict upgrade to Collective Unconscious. Unfortunately for Shamanic Revelation, taking a mana off Collective Unconscious and adding a lifegain ability still doesn’t make that card Constructed-playable.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $20 Future Price (Short Term): $30 Future Price (Medium Term): $25 Future Price (Long Term): $25 |
This set looks like it’s a winner for white mages! I believe Monastery Mentor is the more powerful card for the specific decks that want to play it, but that Soulfire Grand Master is the more objectively powerful card in a vacuum. Works incredibly well in Standard with Stoke the Flame and is playable in Standard, Modern, and Legacy. Turns stuff like Anger of the Gods or Pyroclasm into ten+ lifegain spells in addition to being board sweepers. Turns Lightning Bolt into Lightning Helix. At five mana, turns Lightning Bolt into a buyback Lightning Helix. It’s just so cost effective, you can’t help but want to play him in your Boros (or Zoo) deck.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
So is Tombstalker still any good? It hasn’t really seen much Modern or Legacy play in the last while. Soulflayer costs two less mana and is -1/-1 compared to Tombstalker, but it can gain multiple abilities if you happen to have the correct creatures in the graveyard. I think this card is being very overrated right now; it’s a 4/4 creature that often won’t even have additional abilities, and how many Hooting Mandrills have you seen played lately?
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $6 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
So this is an interesting card, isn’t it? It’s either good, or it’s not, and I don’t really feel like an eleven-mana sorcery that can cheat down to three
has any middle ground; you either get it to below five mana consistently, or it’s a bad Time Warp. I believe it’s the latter based on how badly Temporal
Mastery turned out compared to the hype. I still would want to play all three (Time Warp, Temporal Mastery, Temporal Trespass) in a Mono-Blue Turboturn deck.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk rare. Green sure likes fighting in this set!
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $25 Current Price: $30 Future Price (Short Term): $25 Future Price (Medium Term): $20 Future Price (Long Term): $20 |
The closest two comparable cards to Ugin are Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker and Karn Liberated. In Urzatron decks, that one mana difference between Karn and Ugin is absolutely huge; the ability to outright kill anything on the board (pinpoint) is huge for Karn as well. Ugin is better at completely saving an otherwise unwinnable board. Nicol Bolas is better at removal than either Karn or Ugin. So is Ugin any good? My answer is “yes, but not universally so.” Eight mana is a lot to pay for Lightning Bolt. It’s not a lot to pay for All is Dust (which is effectively what the second ability compares to on the Magic continuum scale). It’s downright funny in casual games with Painter’s Servant (Armageddon by activating the second ability for zero with a Servant in play!). Actually – is that a playable Modern build? If you activate Ugin for six, you basically wipe the entire board and have the only permanent (Ugin) as a built in Lightning Bolt machine.
Either way, all three of Ugin’s abilities are realistically achievable due to its high starting loyalty, so that is a saving grace against an eight mana cost.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $7.50 Current Price: $6 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
I think this is just under being playable in Standard. You get six power worth of creatures the first turn you play it for five mana, but the first and second abilities don’t easily mesh. Interesting to keep an eye on, but probably not good enough compared to other beaters/midrange creatures in Standard.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Four power for three mana is about where you’d expect a tournament playable green card to be at this point. Two toughness is, pardon the expression, tough. The activated ability on Yasova will let you grab three power-or-less creatures. As the game goes on, this is less and less important. Compare this to Soulfire Grand Master – the Grand Master is good in the beginning, middle, and lategame. Yasova peaks on turn 2 (playing off a mana elf), and gets progressively worse the later in the game you draw it.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/80.
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
14 out of the 35 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Crux of Fate: $2
Frontier Siege: $2
Soulflayer: $3
Total Rare Value: $7
Five out of the ten Mythic Rares in Fate Reforged have been spoiled!
Monastery Mentor: $20
Total Mythic Value: $77
In addition, the five Khans fetchlands are going to be featured in Booster Packs in the land slot. The land slot consists of:
10 Alternate Art Lifegain Taplands from Khans
10 Basic Lands (two of each land type)
5 Khans Fetchlands
My guess that if we’re looking at a 121 card sheet:
5 each Lifegain Tapland (50 Total)
6 each Basic Land (60 total)
2 each Khans Fetchland (10 total)
And then one of the basic lands will get a 7th printing, making it slightly more common than the other basic lands (which is what sometimes happens with 20
lands on a 121 count land sheet).
It’s entirely possible there are only 1x each of the Khans fetchland per print sheet, so let’s crunch that math as well.
The average value of a Khans fetchland is approximately $15.
If there are 10 Khans fetchlands per print sheet, that means that they will appear once every 12.1 booster packs. This would be close enough to call it an
average of 3 per booster box, or $45 in value added to each Booster Box.
If there are 5 Khans fetchlands per print sheet, that means they will appear once every 24.2 packs – or you’ll get 1.5 per box. This would add $22.50 in
value to a booster box.
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($14) + 1M ($77) = $91
$91/80 = $1.14 value per pack, or $41.04 per box without Fetchlands.
With Fetchlands appearing at 10 per 121 packs opened, this is a $86.04 value per box.
With Fetchlands appearing at 5 per 121 packs opened, this is a $63.29 value per box.
Keep in mind that we still have 21 rares and 5 mythics left to spoil from Fate Reforged. I wouldn’t be too alarmed about the low value of the rares so far.
The big X-factor is how often the fetchlands appear in a pack.
Okay, and now wacky theory time! Remember that 121 card sheet I outlined above? What if it looked like this?
6 Each Basic Land (60 total)
5 each Lifetain Tapland (50 total)
1 each Khans Fetchland (5 total) – reprinting Onslaught Fetchlands
1 each Dragons of Tarkir Fetchland (5 total) – reprinting Zendikar Fetchlands
I don’t think this is likely, but I do think it’s possible – Wizards has done some pretty crazy things in the past, and slipping in Zendikar
fetchlands (as a preview of what’s to come in Dragons of Tarkir) would explain A) keeping the original set symbols on the Khans fetchlands for Fate
Reforged, and B) would drive tremendous hype for Dragons of Tarkir, since we’ll know that there are five more high-demand fetchlands being reprinted in
large quantities just down the road at the end of March.
Just some food for thought!
See you all tomorrow for the second article in this series!