Welcome to the second and final week of the Financial Value of Magic Origins! The entire set should be spoiled this Friday (not guaranteed, but that’s been the time frame in the past!). Foils will go on sale by the end of the business day on Friday. The columns for the next four days will talk about the spoilers as they are released. The final day will be a recap with final thoughts, plus a list of foils that I feel will hold value over time.
How I Review:
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic Origins.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Battle for Zendikar) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (The one that is the block AFTER Battle for Zendikar block).
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Hallowed Moonlight is going to be an excellent sideboard card in both Modern and Legacy. Because it’s also a cantrip, it’s possible it might be in the maindeck in certain metagames. However, it is generally a sideboard card and sideboard cards don’t get the glory of staying high-dollar until long after they rotate out of Standard.
Yes, Hallowed Moonlight hoses many popular decks/strategies (Collected Company, Token decks, Splinter Twin combo), but just as often it’s a completely dead card. Again – being strong out of the sideboard will keep it above complete bulk range. The price on Hallowed Moonlight will spike initially due to people needing it for tournament play ASAP, but will level off afterwards because of lack of further demand.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
Speaking of anti-Splinter Twin tech, Harbinger of the Tides also works in this regard. This reminds me of Tidebender Mage, except less narrow; both are cards that Merfolk decks will want to run. Harbinger of the Tides is a lot more versatile and absolute (even if they kill it, their creature still bounces). Harbinger of the Tides also works really well with Aether Vial (avoid the two extra mana) and Merrow Reejerey (the tap trigger happens on casting, not on ETB). Very solid card for both Modern and Legacy, and one with Standard potential as well.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
How good is Cranial Plating if it doesn’t trigger itself? Helm of the Gods is essentially Cranial Plating which counts Enchantments – but runs into the problem that it itself isn’t an enchantment. Still – it only costs two to cast and equip in a single turn, so how does this compare to something like Ethereal Armor in an Enchantress/Kor Spiritdancer decks? I think that Helm of the Gods has the potential to someday be there, but it’ll be in an Eternal format at this point.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
I’ve given up on this effect being worth playing right now. All previous iterations over the past 5+ years have been pretty lackluster, so I’m not holding out hope that one mana less than usual will make much of a difference for a card that does absolutely nothing to affect the board state. Bulk Rare.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $3 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
The immediate comparisons for Molten Vortex are with Seismic Assault. One of the reasons Seismic Assault is so good is because of the no-mana activation. You can go infinite with something like Swans of Bryn Argoll or dump dozens of lands a turn back with multiple Life from the Loam. On the other hand – the biggest drawback to Seismic Assault is that it costs triple-red to cast, making it extremely color-prohibitive to play in non-red or red-splash decks. I think that the mana cost on Molten Vortex is so low that it’ll be a player in Standard and possibly Modern.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $6 Current Price: $6 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
Pyromancer’s Goggles have a huge effect. This is the type of card that can turn around an entirely losing game into a winning one. With that said – it costs five mana, it’s really only good in red-based decks, and likely you’ll only want to play it in red control-based decks.
With that said – this is going to be a huge casual card 2+ years down the road. Even though the price may be down now, the effect is so powerful (and playable in Commander or on kitchen tables) that virtually all red mages of the casual variety will want a copy.
Note: Works well with Crater’s Claws in Standard. Works great with Cruel Ultimatum in Modern. Otherwise, this is going to be copying burn spells all day long.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $3 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
The Green Warp World. That’s about all I have to say about this. Bulk Mythic Rare. There’s a potential scenario where you get a bunch of Eldrazi Spawn (I am 99% convinced they will be in Battle For Zendikar) and then draw a whole lot of cards – but in that case, couldn’t you just sac the Eldrazi Spawn to cast your Eldrazi?
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.49 Current Price: $0.49 Future Price (Short Term): $0.49 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.49 Future Price (Long Term): $0.49 |
Bident of Thassa is better if you want to draw cards (forcing your opponent to attack, or drawing cards for each creature that hits rather than only drawing cards off artifact creatures that connect). Thopter Spy Network is worse for drawing cards. Yes, you can play Darksteel Citadel and get a 1/1 flyer every turn starting turn five – but that effect is just really, really slow and is not guaranteed. Bulk Rare.
Reprints
No reprints spoiled so far today!
Changes Since The Last Article
Dwynen, Gilt-Leaf Daen: From $2 to $2.50. Slight bump due to the number of playable B/G Elves spoiled on Friday.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
People have asked for a little more explanation of this formula, so here goes. There are 121 cards on a print sheet of Magic cards. (You can see this if you win a sheet of cards at a prize wall at a Grand Prix event). A large set typically prints all of the Rares and Mythics on the same sheet:
53 Rares (2 copies of each on the sheet) = 106 total cards
15 Mythics (one copy of each on the sheet) = 15 total cards.
The 2R (two copies of each Rare) and 1M (1 copy of each Mythic) corresponds to the frequency in which those cards appear when collated into Magic booster packs. So for every 121 packs of cards, you’ll see two of each Rare and one of each Mythic in print.
Obviously there is randomization of which cards end up in which packs, so opening a random 121 packs would almost never get you a perfect allocation of product. But if you were to open every booster box of Magic Origins printed, you’d end up with this 2:1 ratio for every Rare/Mythic in the set.
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any Mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
33 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up! (* = REPRINT)
* Battlefield Forge: $2
* Caves of Koilos: $2
Dark Petition: $4
Dwynen, Gilt-Leaf Daen: $2.50
Exquisite Firecraft: $4
* Goblin Piledriver: $20
Hallowed Moonlight: $2
Harbinger of the Tides: $2
Honored Hierarch: $6
*Knight of the White Orchid: $3
Languish: $7.50
* Llanowar Wastes: $2
Managorger Hydra: $3
Mizzium Meddler: $2
Molten Vortex: $3
Pia and Kiran Nalaar: $3
Relic Seeker: $4
* Shivan Reef: $2
Vryn Wingmare: $3
* Yavimaya Coast: $2
Total Rare Value: $79
14 out of the 15 Mythic Rares have been spoiled!
Alhammarret’s Archive: $8
Archangel of Tithes: $20
Avaricious Dragon: $10
Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh | Chandra, Roaring Flame: $12
Day’s Undoing: $20
Demonic Pact: $5
Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy | Jace, Telepath Unbound: $20
Kytheon, Hero of Akroas | Gideon, Battle-Forged: $25
Liliana, Heretical Healer | Liliana, Defiant Necromancer: $25
Nissa, Vastwood Seer | Nissa, Sage Animist: $20
Pyromancer’s Goggles: $6
Starfield of Nyx: $8
Woodland Bellower: $8
Total Mythic Value: $187
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($79) + 1M ($187) ) = $345
$345/121 = $2.85 value per pack, or $102.60 per box.
There’s one more Mythic left to go, plus twenty more Rares. Tune in tomorrow to see what else is coming in Magic Origins!