It’s that time – time for my Daily Financial Review of Dragons of Tarkir! This is the first large spring set since Avacyn Restored back in 2012, and the
first spring set to be pushed all the way back to March for as long as I can remember! Khans of Tarkir was a sure hit, filled with many playable cards that
have held value over the past few months. Fate Reforged was light on playable rares, but it has made up a lot of value in good mythics. How will Dragons of
Tarkir fare financially? Follow my series the next couple of weeks to find out!
How I Review:
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Dragons of Tarkir.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Magic Origins aka Magic 2016) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (Remember: new block
structure! Big set / Small set + Big set / Small set is the new schedule.)
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Bulk rare, however, it is one that will have a lot of interest from casual players. Rarely does haste come so cheaply without a drawback, and the second ability could be relevant if there’s a critical mass of playable dragons in Standard. Still – seems like a card that will be a hit for Commander players, so it won’t be completely without value.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $15 Future Price (Medium Term): $10 Future Price (Long Term): $10 |
Super-solid card for Standard. Easily cast, hard to kill, and will usually have an immediate effect on the game state. Should be a Standard staple, and it might be good enough to be a one/two-of in Modern. Also, Dragonlord Silumgar is a fantastic commander for Commander decks. This hits the sweet spot between competitive and casual play, and will demand a premium for the near future.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk rare. Seven mana is a lot (read: too much) to pay to get two cards back from your graveyard over two turns.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Right now, it’s hard to evaluate Exploit. I’d need to see what token generators end up being in this set and what other exploit effects end up seeing print (so you can build around the deck). If this were a modal card, it would (at worst) read: “Diabolic Tutor, or put a 4/6 deathtouch creature into play.” It’s better than that, since you can get both effects (both the Tutor and the creature) by sacrificing another creature on the board. Because of that, I believe that Sidisi might end up seeing Standard play. It’s just hard to compete with deck slots against sure-things like Dragonlord Silumgar (above) or Tasigur, the Golden Fang.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
I think Stratus Dancer is a trap. There are two ways to play Stratus Dancer:
1) You pay two mana and get a 2/1 blue flyer. Welkin Tern isn’t quite breaking down the doors of Standard right now.
2) You pay five mana. You get a 3/2 blue flyer and potentially counter an instant or sorcery spell. Five mana is way too much to pay just to get a 3/2 blue
flyer, and countering an instant/sorcery (and having to leave your creature as a 2/2 vanilla creature while you’re doing it) isn’t necessarily the best use of
mana or card slots.
There is going to be a large interest initially on Stratus Dancer because people are going to look at the best-case scenario: you always end up with a 3/2
flyer, plus you countered an opponent’s spell. While this will happen on occasion, I think it’s more likely that if you’re playing Stratus Dancer,
you’re playing it as a 2/1 flyer for two mana that occasionally goes face-down in a long game or the control mirror-match.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
4 out of the 53 rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Stratus Dancer: $2
Total Rare Value: $2
1 out of the 15 mythic rares has been spoiled!
Dragonlord Silumgar: $10
Total Mythic Value: $10
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($4) + 1M ($10) = $14
$14/121 = $0.115 value per pack, or $4.14 per box.
Given how few mythics/rares have been spoiled so far, I wouldn’t put too much value into the Pack/Box value yet; what instead I would focus on is that
there’s a cycle of mythic gold dragons (announced by Wizards), and based on Dragonlord Silumgar, we’re looking at Kamigawa-level playable dragons (most of
which hit $10+ as rares when they were Standard legal).