Welcome to day two of my Financial Value series of articles about Dragons of Tarkir! All five intro pack rares were spoiled, along with a handful of other rares. Let’s dive straight into the reviews, since there is a lot to talk about today!
How I Review:
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Dragons of Tarkir.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Magic Origins aka Magic 2016) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (Remember: new block
structure! Big set / Small set + Big set / Small set is the new schedule.)
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
One of the five Intro Pack rares. Bulk, but probably higher demand than a normal bulk card because it’s a dragon.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Bulk rare, Intro Pack rare, but more playable casually than Arashin Sovereign (five mana versus seven mana).
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Harbinger of the Hunt |
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.75 Current Price: $0.75 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Man, sorry to start off the article this way, but the alphabet demands that the first three cards in this article be bulk rares that are also Intro Pack rares.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Still a bulk rare, but look! It’s a $0.25 bump to the top end of bulk rares, rather than $0.49 for the bottom end of bulk.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $3 Current Price: $4 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $2.50 Future Price (Long Term): $2.50 |
For the first time since Lorwyn, we’re getting true “Commands!” (Spells that have four modes, and you get to choose two.) All five of the original Commands saw some amount of Standard play, though Austere Command (Commander favorite) and Incendiary Command saw the least amount of play. Even in Modern, Primal Command and Cryptic Command still see play, and Profane Command sees very fringe play, but a bunch of casual play.
All four modes on Ojutai’s Command are decent, but none of them are a backbreaker like “Counter target spell” outright. This should be very playable in Standard, but not universally playable. Ojutai’s Command seems to be easier to cast, but more expensive and less powerful than the charms. Is getting a second effect worth the extra mana and lessened power level? Not entirely sure, but I think this Command is good, but not a hugely-game changing card for Standard play.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk Intro Pack rare dragon.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Metagame-dependent removal spell. Should see a bunch of sideboard play and can battle Ascendancy decks. Might see maindeck play if the post-Dragons metagame is all Siege Rhinos and Elder Dragons, in which case it’ll bump a little. Still – a little too limited in what it does to blow up tremendously in value.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $5 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
The immediate comparison is between Shaman of Forgotten Ways and Somberwald Sage.
Advantages of Somberwald Sage:
– Adds three mana to your mana pool (versus two).
Advantages of Shaman of Forgotten Ways:
– Can add two different colors to your pool (Somberwald Sage was three mana of the same color).
– Higher Power (2 versus 0) and toughness (3 versus 1).
– Has a second ability (Biorhythm) which can be relevant in Standard play.
I took a look at Somberwald Sage’s price history. We started the Sage at $2 and sold a very good amount of it. It spiked to $2.50 for two months after
release, then dropped to $1.50 for two months. It then spiked to $3 in November of 2012, and stayed there for two months before dropping back down to $1.50
for the rest of its time in Standard.
Based on all of these factors, I’m starting Shaman of Forgotten Ways at $5. This is basically double what the three-month price was for Somberwald Sage and
accounts for Shaman being a mythic, while Somberwald Sage was a rare. They are so close thematically and in play that it’s hard to really draw too much of
a distinction in power level between the two. Instead, the worth of both of these cards is determined by how important this sort of ramp is in the
metagame.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $1.50 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
Taurean Mauler has held a steady amount of casual appeal and has rebounded in value every time it’s been reprinted. Sunscorch Regent is harder to cast (five mana, double-white), but is larger, evasive, and gains life. Should be very popular with casual players and should be a great long-term bet (2+ years).
Updates From Yesterday
Dragonlord Silumgar: From $10 to $8 – Still believe in this card, but I’m adjusting slightly downward to get it in line with market value.
Sidisi, Undead Vizier: From $1 to $5 – I undervalued Sidisi, since I discounted how well it worked with ramp creatures (such as Sylvan Caryatid or Satyr
Wayfinder). Sidisi also works great with a Whip deck, so there are two decks that it’ll slot into for Standard play.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
12 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Ojutai’s Command: $4
Stratus Dancer: $2
Sunscorch Regent: $2
Total Rare Value: $13
2 out of the 15 Mythic Rares have been spoiled!
Total Mythic Value: $13
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($26) + 1M ($13) = $39
$14/121 = $0.32 value per pack, or $11.52 per box.
I have a huge amount of excitement at this point for the rest of the spoilers for this set! We still have no planeswalkers spoiled (should be two in this
set, based on only having three so far this block), four more Commands, and four more Elder Dragons (the first one was very promising!). There are also no
non-basic lands spoiled yet (I’m sure they will be in here!), so there’s a lot of value on top of what’s already been spoiled that is already yet to come.