The entire spoiler is up for Dragons of Tarkir! This article is divided into three sections:
1) Discussion of the remaining rares that were spoiled.
2) An overview of the foil cards in this set that will be in high demand.
3) A full pack/box value breakdown, including foil cards and good common/uncommons.
How I Review:
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Dragons of Tarkir.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Magic Origins aka Magic 2016) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (Remember: new block
structure! Big set / Small set + Big set / Small set is the new schedule.)
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
The closest comp to this is Rage Reflection, which costs one more mana but doesn’t let your creatures block with double strike. This may be cheap enough to see Standard play (since it’s one heck of an alpha strike), but likely it’ll just be relegated to casual play.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Double Polymorph. The most frequent (successful) use of Polymorph involved targeting your own creatures, so this just isn’t very good for Constructed (no combo potential). Probably interesting for Commander but not enough so to make this rise above bulk price.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
Corpseweft has the chance to be a hit in Constructed. This is the type of card that trades resources favorably, because no matter how big a Zombie you
make, it’ll only ever cost two mana to make it. (Yes, the first will take 2B additional to account for casting Corpseweft, but any past that only rely on
creature cards in your graveyard). If you exile one creature card, you end up with a 2/2 Zombie for 1B (subpar in general). If you exile two creature
cards, you get a 4/4 for 1B (which is great). The math only gets more ridiculous from there, plus you can activate Corpseweft multiple times a turn, so
you’re not putting all of your eggs in one basket.
Let’s compare this to Empty the Pits!
Advantages to Empty the Pits:
1) Delve lets you remove any cards from your graveyard, not just creature cards.
2) You can make more zombies than you have creature cards in your graveyard.
Advantages to Corpseweft:
1) You can use it over multiple turns, since it’s an enchantment (not an instant).
2) Your zombies can be larger than 2/2.
3) Empty the Pits at best costs BBBB to start making zombies. With two cards in your graveyard, you get one 2/2 zombie. With two creature cards in your
graveyard, you get two 2/2 zombies or one 4/4 zombie using Corpseweft. With four creature cards in your graveyard, you can probably activate this three
times to make three 2/2 creatures, a 4/4 and a 2/2, or a 6/6 zombie. You’re only getting two 2/2 zombies with Empty the Pits.
Long story short – I’m really bullish on Corpseweft, and I think right now it’s probably the sleeper card of the set. There are a lot of decks that can
take advantage of recycling their creatures (or taking advantage of self-mill) that will reliably let Corpseweft produce creatures. This would be my spec
target from this set, if I had to pick a card that is starting off at a low price and has the potential to shoot up.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Wizards is really trying to make Raise Dead work in Constructed play between this and the R/B charm. I think that in the right metagame, Foul Renewal might see play as a 1-2 of in Standard. Either way, it shouldn’t rise above bulk price because it’s too unreliable to be a general-purpose removal card.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
The effects on Gleam of Authority are priced so cheaply that there might be an enchantment-based or counter-based deck that this fits into. This is the type of card that really appeals to casual players (see Celestial Mantle), so while it’ll probably dip in the short term, I see this as a card that two+ years down the road will be commanding a premium.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
While I’m all for Control Magic effects, the ability for the opponent to play around Illusory Gains is so high that this is relegated to purely bulk status.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Living Lore wins my award for most interesting (from a design perspective) card in the set, both for mechanical play and from a flavor perspective. Can you make an arbitrarily large creature with Living Lore? Chances are that you won’t have an instant/sorcery large enough to make Living Lore be able to get through blocking creatures – plus Living Lore doesn’t have evasion.
I wouldn’t discount a card like this, and I think it’ll be a big hit in Commander. Without evasion, Living Lore just won’t be able to trigger the “free cast” ability very often.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Reminds me of Hardened Scales. The people who want to play with this will really want to play with it – and unlike previous morph-reducing effects, this one comes down exactly right in the curve to let you start playing Morph creatures on turn 2. In addition, Obscuring Aether isn’t a completely dead draw lategame, since you can play it as a 2/2 for three mana.
I also don’t think that a purely morph/megamorph deck is viable in Standard, so this’ll be relegated to casual play status.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
The range of creatures this will hit is very limited (usually you’d sacrifice Profaner itself, so only one and two toughness creatures would get bounced). I wouldn’t completely ignore this effect though, since it’s one-sided, splashable, and can occasionally exploit another creature larger than itself in order to bounce your opponent’s entire board.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
This is selling quickly for us, and I just think it’s overrated. I look at this card and can’t see a mana cost where I’d be happy casting it. Earlygame, if you really want 1/1 creatures, you’re better off with Raise the Alarm. Lategame, do you really want to be paying five mana for four 1/1 creatures? I don’t think Secure the Wastes is a bad card, but I remember the hype around White Sun’s Zenith, so I come into this card with very wary eyes.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
This card is completely aces in multiplayer games. You’ll be able to get to seven mana and be able to just wrath away all opposing creatures while bringing back a business spell at the same time. In Constructed seven mana is a lot to pay. I actually don’t think this is completely unplayable in Standard (it’s Wrath + a limited Regrowth), but I don’t think it’d be more than a 1-2 of in control decks.
Common and Uncommons (Foil and Non-Foil)
So there are a lot of really good commons and uncommons in this set. I’m going to go over the ones of note and discuss their foil and
non-foil values.
Foil Commons ($1+)
Foil Anticipate – $2- should be played a lot in Standard. Might see Modern play.
Foil Center Soul – $1 – Repeatable Protection effect.
Foil Contradict – $1 – Dismiss at one extra mana.
Foil Dragon Fodder – $1 – Matches the Shards of Alara value of Dragon Fodder.
Foil Duress – $2 – Generally the price on a foil (non-Premium Deck Series) Duress, plus the artwork is awesome.
Foil Evolving Wilds – $1 – Generally the price on foil Evolving Wilds, plus the artwork is awesome here too!
Foil Negate – $1.50 – Generally the price on Foil Negate.
Foil Sheltered Aerie – $2 – Improved Overgrowth/Dawn’s Reflection.
Foil Tormenting Voice – $2 – Same as the Khans version.
Foil Twin Bolt – $4 – Instant-speed Forked Bolt. Forked Bolt is $3, and the foil is $25. While this is a common, it’ll be both Standard and Modern
playable.
Foil Uncommons (2+)
Foil Blood-Chin Rager – $3 – Pyreheart Wolf for Warriors. Very strong for a tribe that wants to be aggressive.
Foil Display of Dominance – $2 – Playable sideboard color-hosing card.
Foil Draconic Roar – $2 – A dragon-centric Searing Blaze.
Foil Dragon Hunter -$2 – A relevant 2/1 creature for a single white mana.
Foil Dragonlord’s Servant – $3 – Must-include in any Dragon deck, casually or competitively. Will probably hit higher than this price before release.
Foil Encase in Ice – $2 – Relevant sideboard card.
Foil Enduring Scalelord – $2 – Foil Dragon + foil combo card for casual players. See Juniper Order Ranger.
Foil Explosive Vegetation – $3 – The Onslaught version is a solid-selling $12 card.
Foil Foul-Tongue Invocation – $2 – Diabolic Edict effect with a slight upside if you’re playing dragons.
Foil Lightning Berserker – $4 – Playable Modern/Standard red aggro creature.
Foil Orator of Ojutai – $2 – An improved Wall of Omens in Dragon decks.
Foil Rending Volley – $3 – Anti-Deceiver tech in Modern.
Foil Roast – $2 – See Foil Flame Slash ($8).
Foil Sarkhan’s Triumph – $3 – Every dragon-based Commander deck is going to want this, along with anyone trying out a Dragon-based Standard deck.
Foil Savage Ventmaw – $2 – See also Enduring Scalelord. Dragon + combo piece = $2.
Foil Scaleguard Sentinels – $3 – Playable Standard (and potentially Modern) card. Thank you Changeling mechanic!
Foil Seismic Rupture – $2 – A more expensive (and limited) Pyroclasm, but the Standard format needs this effect right now.
Foil Self-Inflicted Wound – $2 – Playable sideboard color-hosing card.
Foil Silumgar Sorcerer – $2 – Remove Soul/Essence Scatter on a flash creature. Playable in Standard.
Foil Silumgar’s Scorn – $2 – Force Spike that becomes Counterspell in Dragon decks.
Foil Ultimate Price – $2 – See Return to Ravnica pricing!
Non-Foil Commons ($.50+)
Twin Bolt – $0.50
Non-Foil Uncommons ($1+)
Blood-Chin Rager – $1
Draconic Roar – $1
Dragon Hunter – $1
Dragonlord’s Servant – $1
Lightning Berserker – $1
Sarkhan’s Triumph – $1
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
All of the Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Arashin Foremost: $2
Assault Formation: $2.50
Atarka’s Command: $5
Avatar of the Resolute: $2.50
Damnable Pact: $2
Den Protector: $2
Haven of the Spirit Dragon: $3
Icefall Regent: $2
Ire Shaman: $2
Ojutai’s Command: $6
Stratus Dancer: $2
Total Rare Value: $66
All 15 Mythics have been spoiled! Here are the ones $4 and up!
Deathmist Raptor: $7
Dragon Whisperer: $6
Dragonlord Atarka: $10
Narset Transcendent: $50
Ojutai Exemplars: $10
Sarkhan Unbroken: $30
Total Mythic Value: $155
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($132) + 1M ($155) = $287
$289/121 = $2.37 value per pack, or $85.32 per box.
Then, we add in the value of commons of note. In this case, just Twin Bolt.
Twin Bolt = $0.50. You open 360 commons in a box (36 packs per box * 10 commons per pack), and there are 101 total commons. You end up with approximately
3.5 of each common, so this adds $1.75 in box value.
Then, we add in the value of uncommons of note:
Blood-Chin Rager – $1
Draconic Roar – $1
Dragon Hunter: $1
There are 108 uncommons per box (36 packs per box * 3 uncommons per pack), and there are 80 uncommons total in this set. Each uncommon appears 1.35 times
per box, so uncommons add $8.10 in value per box ($6 * 1.35).
The odds of getting a foil card are one in every 67 cards (as printed on current booster packs). There are 540 cards per booster box, so you are getting
approximately 8 foils per box. This usually breaks down to:
5x Commons/Basic Lands
2x Uncommon
1x Rare/Mythic
Assuming those numbers, we can add the following:
Foil Commons: $17.50 in value for the commons. There are a few lands that will start at $2 (Forest #264, Mountain #261, Swamp #256), so this adds $6 in
value, for a total of $23.50. There are 121 cards (including lands), and you get five per box, so this adds $0.97 in value per box.
Foil Uncommons: $50 in value for uncommons. There are 80 uncommons in this set, and you get two per box on average, so $1.25 in value per box.
Foil Rares and Mythics: There are 53 rares and 15 mythics. Each rare is represented twice per sheet, and each mythic once. So for every 121 boxes you open,
you’ll average out to two of each foil rare and one of each foil mythic.
For the sake of shortcutting, let’s just assume that we only count the cards that we listed above and doubled their price. Each rare that has a non-foil
value of $2+ and each mythic that has a non-foil value of $4+ counts towards this equation.
So $287×2 = $574, then divided by 121, adding $4.74 value per box for Foil Rares/Mythics.
So in the end, we have the following:
Non-foil
Common: $1.75
Uncommon: $8.10
Rare/Mythic: $85.32
TOTAL: $95.17
Non-foil
Common: $0.97
Uncommon: $1.25
Rare/Mythic: $4.74
TOTAL: $6.96
Final Box Value
(on average): $102.13
This is pretty good given that there’s no pre-existing set of cards (see also: Khans and Fate having fetchlands) that are pumping up the value of this set.
Overall, I believe that these boxes are a decent value in the short term, and there are a lot of cards in this set that have long-term potential for casual
play.