This Invitational is a special one because it’s the first time it’s been held this soon after a set release rather than before a new set would come out.
With Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir two weeks later, there will be several eyes on this tournament, and it will likely set the stage for Standard. It’s a big
deal, and I know I’ll be watching.
This might be the most important Invitational ever.
Standard
The bad news is that I worked on Dragons of Tarkir a little bit, so not only can I not discuss the specifics of Standard, but it also means I can’t attend
the Invitational. The good news is Dragons of Tarkir is the last set I worked on, so after this, I’ll be completely free!
The first thing I wonder about is how big will Mono-Red be? Based on previous experiences, red-based aggro decks do particularly well after the release of
a large set. Since DTK has a plethora of solid red options, I wouldn’t be surprised if that tradition continued on. Will it be Boss Sligh, a different low
to the ground red deck splashing Atarka’s Command, or perhaps a devotion-style deck with Thunderbreak Regent and Dragon Whisperer?
The following three decks are ones that I think are good enough to make an impact at the Invitational:
Creatures (26)
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Fleecemane Lion
- 4 Boon Satyr
- 3 Courser of Kruphix
- 4 Heir of the Wilds
- 2 Dromoka, the Eternal
- 1 Warden of the First Tree
- 4 Surrak, the Hunt Caller
Planeswalkers (1)
Lands (24)
Spells (9)
Brad’s brews always look raw, but that’s okay because his ideas for what may or may not work are generally spot on.
Silkwrap in the (supposed) Siege Rhino format?
Only one Warden of the First Tree?
Random fatty dragons in your beatdown deck?
Sure, this one is a little rough around the edges, but historically G/W has been undervalued, yet it overperforms. With things like Valorous Stance and
Dromoka’s Command slotting in for black removal, this is the spiritual successor to Abzan Aggro, and the manabase being clunky or painful lost people a lot
of matches. G/W should have basically no issues on that front.
Creatures (29)
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Stormbreath Dragon
- 4 Goblin Rabblemaster
- 4 Rattleclaw Mystic
- 2 Ashcloud Phoenix
- 4 Shaman of the Great Hunt
- 4 Deathmist Raptor
- 3 Surrak, the Hunt Caller
Lands (24)
Spells (7)
This one sort of backpacks off Brad’s G/W deck, but it might actually be better.
In his VS Video against Todd Anderson
, Brian suggested the removal of Goblin Rabblemaster and Shaman of the Great Hunt, and I can’t say I disagree with that. Xenagos, the Reveler is pretty
solid and is cute with his sideboard Atarkas, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see that show up in the maindeck.
Overall, it looked like his deck was fast, hit hard, and had enough removal to clear away anything that was truly bothersome. Also, flying is a powerful
mechanic.
Creatures (10)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (24)
Spells (22)
I played a similar deck at Pro Tour Theros but didn’t do so well. Despite that, this deck looks very appealing, but it could be a trap. I’ve been burned
before…
What’s the one thing these three decks have in common? They are all two-color decks.
People seem to be streamlining their decks and going for consistency over power. With less of a need to splash that third color in order to gain a little
extra power, it’s no wonder that people seem to prefer removing some of the enters-the-battlefield-tapped lands from their decks.
Ultimately, the biggest question is if people will be simply slotting cards into their old decks as they see fit, or if they will take a chance and sleeve
up some unproven brew with a bunch of new cards that were labeled as ‘mediocre’ by their peers.
The psychology behind it is interesting. Why do we make the safe choices when it comes to building decks for new formats? Nearly every single time there is
a great deck weeks after the set release that features multiple new cards. G/W Devotion showed up two weeks before the Dragons of Tarkir Prerelease, but
you could have had it on week one!
Whisperwood Elemental, in particular, was a card that people seemed to think was great, but it couldn’t really find a home. Now it’s the third most
expensive card in the set. Sometimes the new cards are so weird and different that you can’t think of where they might fit or what you want to do with
them, but you’ll also get paid off if you can figure out something no one else can.
Clearly there’s a risk/reward to evaluate, as you don’t want to be the person with a bunch of new cards that end up not being great playing against the
person playing Abzan Midrange since they’re going to tear right through you. I feel like we’ve all been on the losing side of that, and it’s something
we’re conditioned to avoid for the most part.
At the very least, Standard will likely speed up, regardless of how conservative the players are with their deck choices. Also, with more toys comes more
diversity, and that means less Abzan Midrange and G/W Devotion decks slogging it out in long, drawn out games. I, for one, look forward to Zurgo
Bellstriker smashing faces.
One of the most important things to note is that while Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir is the week after, I don’t think people will be holding back technology
for this tournament. There’s a lot of cash on the line and an invitation to the Players’ Championship, so the stakes are high enough to bring your A game.
Not doing so would likely be a mistake, as your views on the format will likely change after this tournament.
Legacy
Although the Standard portion arguably matters more, it’s not the only format being played at the Invitational. For some, I imagine they’ll be looking
forward to watching the first huge tournament after Treasure Cruise got banned.
Shardless Sultai is the best deck.
Nah, just kidding. I don’t actually have enough games under my belt to say for sure, but the deck doesn’t look bad. Granted, my average Daily Event
consists of matches against Jeskai Stoneblade, Burn, 12-Post, and Grixis Delver, and that’s not exactly a true sample size for something like an
Invitational. Still, the deck feels good, and the strategy is still sound, and the format doesn’t appear too hostile for it. There are some tricky matchups
and difficult cards to beat, but I don’t think it’s anything Shardless can’t handle.
That said, I don’t think Shardless will be particularly prevalent in this event, although I’ve been told the contrary. It never seemed to me like Shardless
was a deck people picked up unless the metagame was in a certain place. Right now, I don’t think we’re there, and even worse, I think there’s a lot of
uncertainty, which is bad for a Shardless player who needs to configure their deck optimally for the metagame.
Dig Through Time is the biggest question mark. It was mostly overshadowed by Treasure Cruise, so we never wanted to fully explore what Dig could do. That
said, I don’t think we ever fully explored what Treasure Cruise was capable of either, so maybe we won’t see the best that Dig Through Time has to offer in
this tournament either. I think that if someone figures out what a great Dig Through Time shell looks like, they’ll have a huge advantage in this
tournament.
Sneak and Show has fallen out in favor, largely due to Dig Through Time and the fact that Dig makes Omni-Tell very good. I don’t think Show and Tell
variants will be particularly popular, but it’s a deck with plenty of raw power and lots of great options.
Similar to Show and Tell, Lands is a very good deck that is flying under the radar. The Invitationals tend to have a high density of blue decks in Legacy,
and Lands is quite good against those. Storm and Miracles are the problematic matchups, but I think there are reasonable solutions to both of those
problems. The issue is finding room in your fifteen-card sideboard for a pair of matchups that each want ten cards to solve. Because those matchups are so
difficult on paper, I would imagine Lands wouldn’t be very popular either.
So what will be big?
Miracles
Creatures (3)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (21)
Spells (33)
Maybe this won’t be the most played deck, but it will be the deck that has the highest percentage of proficient people piloting it. You don’t pick up a
deck like Miracles lightly, so if you get paired against it, expect a difficult match.
Stoneforge Mystic
Creatures (9)
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (21)
Spells (29)
It’s still the most overrated card in Legacy, but because it’s overrated, that means it’s going to be popular. This is the deck for the people who want to
feel like everything is in their control, but they don’t want to play a “do nothing” deck like Miracles. Overall, I think both U/W/X strategies are solid,
and you can expect to see a lot of them.
Delver of Secrets
Creatures (16)
Lands (18)
Spells (26)
Creatures (14)
- 4 Delver of Secrets
- 4 Young Pyromancer
- 4 Monastery Swiftspear
- 1 Gurmag Angler
- 1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Lands (17)
Spells (29)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. At one point, you could choose between Delver of Secrets or Stoneforge Mystic as your blue deck of choice, but now that the
format has opened up a bit and people know how to beat Delver decks, they are rightfully not as popular. At the moment, I’d say Sultai Delver will be the
most popular, but Temur Delver is always a threat. Grixis Delver has been having some success lately too, so that’s always a possibility.
Storm
Lands (14)
Spells (46)
It is hilarious to me how quickly Europe attaches itself to Legacy decks, only for them to slowly filter into North America years later. For a long time,
Storm was merely the deck that the best players knew they had to be prepared for, but now some of the best players are actually playing it! Jim Davis, Ross
Merriam, and Brian Braun-Duin have all tried this deck in the last couple years, and they’ve each done quite well with it.
If you’re willing to put in the time to learn it, it can be one of the most rewarding decks in the format to master. Much like Miracles, you don’t pick up
Storm on accident, so you can expect most Storm players to be quite good with their decks.
***
Were I able to play, I’d probably play a safe strategy for Standard and work very hard at finding something that crushes blue decks in Legacy. I think that
something starts with Dig Through Time, but Ancestral Vision is also a good place to be.
This is going to be one of the most exciting tournaments for me to watch. While I would obviously prefer to be playing, this is definitely a fine secondary
option.
Bonus
If I were fantasy drafting for the Invitational, these would be my Top 8 picks:
1) Tom Ross
You can’t argue that The Boss has been utterly dominant on the Open Series. There are a lot of aggressive cards in this set, plus Infect is a reasonable
Legacy choice, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Tom puts up another big finish, mostly due to him making his opponents make difficult decisions.
2) Reid Duke
In my absence, Reid and Tom have both become incredible performers at the Invitationals, so to include one without the other would be heresy. I rank Tom a
little bit higher due to him leveraging.
With the Pro Tour looming, I wouldn’t be surprised if Reid had better things to do than win an Invitational. If that’s the case, I would slot in his Sugar
Loaf brethren Andrew Boswell in my Top 8.
3) Brad Nelson
The Invitational is part Standard, so Brad automatically has six match wins, and he’s certainly got the ability to go 8-0. Legacy has always been his
weakest format, but when you’re as good as Brad is, your weakest format is still better than a lot of people’s best formats.
4) Dave Shiels
Shiels isn’t a self-promoter, so you may have never heard of him. That’s okay. Suffice it to say I think he’s quite good at Magic and is a huge threat at
any event.
5) Todd Anderson
I’m not sure what it is with some people. One week, Todd is super mopey and tilting off while 1-2 dropping a tournament, the next week Todd is super mopey
and making Top 8 in a Modern Open. I hope he stays in his comfort zone instead of blindly following Brad, as that has typically yielded him better results
in the past.
When Todd is on his game, there is no one stopping him at the Invitationals. I just have no idea what it takes for him to flip the switch. I would love to
see what would happen if Todd was on his A game this weekend.
6) Brian Braun-Duin
BBD has been a little quiet lately (strange to say that about someone who won a 4000+ person Grand Prix a few months ago), but it’s only a matter of time
before he’s back in the swing of things. If he sleeves up a green-based ramp deck in Standard, I fully expect him to go 4-4. Then again, maybe he’s found
the ultimate ramp deck and will go 5-3 instead.
If he plays Stormbreath Dragon like he and CVM should, we could very easily see another BBD token.
7) Michael Majors
Read his stuff.
8) Chris Andersen
It’s amazing what a break from the game and a change in attitude can do for someone. I think the way Chris approaches the game now will yield far better
results than it did in the past, and he was already performing quite well. His willingness to go outside the box is a double-edged sword, but I’m eager to
see how it performs for him this weekend.