Keep Or Sell? Theros Block Edition!

Let’s face it–block rotation is the worst.

Every year, right when summer is about to start, half of my Standard collection takes a cannonball plunge into the deep end of the financial swimming pool.
Instead of worrying about which deck I want to bring to FNM, I’m forced to decide which of my cards I should sell before my thirty dollar staples become
six dollar afterthoughts.

The folks at Wizards of the Coast knows this, and it’s a big part of why they’re changing up the block structure. We’re about to enter a world where set
rotation happens every few months, and it will be impossible for any competitive player to fully divest from cards leaving Standard. This will lead to more
people riding out rotation and losing money, but it will also prevent Standard from becoming a lame duck format for a couple of months every year. In my
mind, that’s a fantastic tradeoff.

We’ve got one more classic-sized block rotation to get through before the change, though, which means that it’s time for the Theros block edition
of ‘Keep or Sell?’ If this is your first time faced with a looming rotation, allow me to explain the basics:

Know that 90-95% of the rares and mythics in Theros block and M15 will drop in price
. Standard playability is the biggest factor in determining the price of a Magic card. Even if a card doesn’t see much competitive play, its value is still
linked to the rogue and casual Standard mages who want them for FNM. Many of these cards will lose 50% or more of their value between now and mid-August.

If you play Standard with any regularity, keep at least one good deck together.
You know what’s even worse than your Magic card collection dropping in value? Having to play a lousy deck all summer because you sold everything prior to
rotation. Keep your favorite Standard deck together and consider the lost value to be the price of getting to play top-notch competitive Magic for the next
four months.

Trade Aggressively.
Put together a second trade binder and place all of your rotating staples in it. Over the next few weeks, your goal should be to empty that binder
entirely. You know that one trader in your shop who’s willing to make any deal as long as it’s a win for him on his smartphone balance sheet? Give him the
value he wants. Just make sure that you get Khans block cards or Eternal staples in return.

Remember the cost of selling out and buying back in.
Many people sell their rotating cards over the summer only to re-buy them the following year when they want to build a Modern deck or put together a Cube.
You lose money every time you sell a card-in postage stamps, in transaction fees, in agreeing to a price point below retail, and in your valuable time. If
you sell a card for $15 today and have to buy it for $12 again next year, you’re probably losing money on the deal. This is why I like trading rotating
cards away instead-if you can trade away card at $15 and get it back at $12 the following year, all you’ve lost is time.

Keep an eye out for the panic-seller.
Every year, usually sometime in July, I run into someone who wants no part of their rotating Standard cards anymore. This is usually a player who bought
into the format for the first time and just wants to go back to playing Vintage or Legacy. This person just saw the value of their Standard collection get
cut in half, and they want out ASAP. If you’ve got a blue chip Eternal card like Force of Will or Wasteland that you’re willing to trade away, you might be
able to get a binder full of rotating goodies at buylist prices or lower.

Other than exceptional situations like that, I’d avoid buying or trading for most Theros or M15 cards right now. The supply will still be
high two months from now, and that’s when demand will be at its softest. I’ll write a column in the second or third week of August discussing my favorite Theros block buys.

Know which cards to hold through rotation.
In the old days, every card would drop during set rotation. Now that Modern and Commander are a big deal, some cards only have upside right now, rotation
be damned. Which cards should you keep? That’s the question of the week.

Before I make my Theros block and M15 calls, I’d like to take a look at my Return to Ravnica block predictions and see how I
did. Did my advice pan out, or is it better to just sell everything and deal with the consequences later? Let’s find out.

Return to Ravnica Block Cards I Suggested Selling or Trading Prior to Rotation

Domri Rade – Dropped from $25 to $7.69.
Voice of Resurgence – Dropped from $25 to $19.35
Sphinx’s Revelation – Dropped from $18 to $8.15
Blood Baron of Vizkopa – Dropped from $15 to $2.19
Boros Reckoner – Dropped from $10 to $3.05
Obzedat, Ghost Council – Dropped from $10 to $1.99
Jace, Architect of Thought – Dropped from $8 to $2.99
Nightveil Specter – Dropped from $8 to $1.35
Cyclonic Rift – Dropped from $5 to $3.39
Rakdos’s Return – Dropped from $4 to $1.49
Desecration Demon – Dropped from $4 to $1.89
Ash Zealot – Dropped from $3.50 to $0.69
Mizzium Mortars – Dropped from $3.50 to $0.59
Dreadbore – Dropped from $3 to $2.05
Pack Rat – Dropped from $2.50 to $1.79
Lotleth Troll – Dropped from $2.50 to $0.99
Legion Loyalist – Dropped from $2.50 to $2.45

The criteria I chose for selecting cards to place on this list was simple: if it saw a lot of Standard play and little to no Modern play, I recommended it
as a sell. The one exception that I made was Voice of Resurgence, which I figured would drop in price enough to make it a sell regardless of its place in
the Birthing Pod decks of the day.

Not a single card on this list went up in price over the past year, so I consider it to be a success. I suppose you might have regretted selling your
copies of Cyclonic Rift or Legion Loyalist, which didn’t drop by all that much, but the overall value of these cards dropped by a whopping 59%. If you had
traded away a playset of each card on this list last May and traded for them again today, you’d be saving yourself $175 dollars.

Return to Ravnica Block Cards I Suggested Keeping Through Rotation Because of Modern or Legacy

Sacred Foundry – Dropped from $15 to $13.35
Abrupt Decay – Rose from $12 to $16.05
Hallowed Fountain – Dropped from $12 to $8.29
Steam Vents – Rose from $12 to $13.59
Overgrown Tomb – Dropped from $12 to $8.49
Watery Grave – Dropped from $12 to $10.69
Godless Shrine – Dropped from $12 to $10.09
Breeding Pool – Dropped from $12 to $11.29
Stomping Ground – Dropped from $12 to $9.55
Temple Garden – Dropped from $12 to $8.99
Blood Crypt – Dropped from $12 to $8.19
Deathrite Shaman – Dropped from $12 to $8.15
Supreme Verdict – Dropped from $6 to $4.05
Detention Sphere – Dropped from $3 to $0.95
Burning-Tree Emissary – Dropped from $3 to $0.79
Pithing Needle – Dropped from $2.50 to $0.99

These are the cards from Return to Ravnica block (minus Voice or Resurgence) that saw a decent amount of Modern play last summer. The results
weren’t perfect. Abrupt Decay and Steam Vents went up in price a little, but everything else dropped in value.

Unlike my ‘sell’ list, though, the cards on this list only dropped by a total of 17%. If you’re an active Modern player, that 17% was probably not worth
the hassle of trading away a stack of cards only to have to get them back again later.

My biggest mistake when making this list was the assumption that Return to Ravnica block would behave similarly to Zendikar, Scars of Mirrodin, and Innistrad. In each of those three blocks, the key Eternal cards saw a major price surge during the first spring
after set rotation. Return to Ravnica block saw little to no rise during that period. Why? I can only assume that it mostly has to do with the
size of the player base leveling out. These cards might start to rise in the future, but the supply of Return to Ravnica block staples is great
enough to meet demand for now.

Return to Ravnica Block Cards I Suggested Keeping Through Rotation Because of Casual Play

Ral Zarek – Dropped from $8 to $7.45
Master Biomancer – Dropped from $7 to $4.15
Aurelia, the Warleader – Dropped from $6 to $5.39
Trostani, Selesnya’s Voice – Dropped from $4 to $3
Vraska the Unseen – Dropped from $4 to $3.89
Chromatic Lantern – Rose from $4 to $7.19
Gideon, Champion of Justice – Rose from $4 to $5.49
Progenitor Mimic – Dropped from $4 to $3.39
Savageborn Hydra – Dropped from $4 to $2.39
Angel of Serenity – Dropped from $3.50 to $2.50
Prime Speaker Zegana – Dropped from $3.50 to $1.79
Master of Cruelties – Rose from $3.50 to $4.49
Worldspine Wurm – Rose from $3.50 to $4.59
Rakdos, Lord of Riots – Dropped from $3 to $1.75
Lord of the Void – Rose from $3 to $4.19
Consuming Aberration – Stayed the same at $3
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord – Dropped from $2.50 to $1.50
Lazav, Dimir Mastermind – Dropped from $2.50 to $2.05
Blind Obedience – Dropped from $2.50 to $1.09
Legion’s Initiative – Dropped from $2.50 to $1.49
Boros Charm – Rose from $2.50 to $2.89
Maze’s End – Dropped from $2.50 to $1.49
Utvara Hellkite – Rose from $2 to $6.79
Mind Grind – Rose from $2 to $2.05
Thespian’s Stage – Dropped from $2 to $1.59
Aurelia’s Fury – Dropped from $2 to $1.49
Aetherling – Dropped from $2 to $0.55

My casual keeps list was quite successful. Thanks to rising cards like Utvara Hellkite and Chromatic Lantern, this index lost just 6%, dropping from $93
retail to $87.63. If I’d remembered to add Hellkite Tyrant to the list as well, a card I bought a few extra copies of but forgot to write up, we’d be at
close to 100%. That still doesn’t mean that you should run out and buy a ton of rotating casual cards, but it does seem to suggest that you should be in no
rush to sell the ones that you have.

It might be statistical noise, but based on this list, it looks like casual cards in the $2-$4 range are your best bets for spec value during set rotation.
These cards have enough demand while in Standard to stay above bulk while not seeing enough competitive play to have amassed a value premium.

How do Theros block and M15 cards match up to Return to Ravnica? Here are my lists, albeit with a few changes. First off, I’m
ranking every single $2-and-up card in all four rotating sets-no hedging my bets by leaving out harder calls.

Second, I’m adding two new lists. These are for cards that should hold most of their value due to either casual or competitive demand but are still worth
selling or trading away ASAP if you’re able to get the right deal. If not, though, carrying them through rotation is probably just fine.

Trade Away ASAP

Nissa, Worldwaker – $17.95
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes – $15.09
Garruk, Apex Predator – $13.25
Stormbreath Dragon – $12.95
Goblin Rabblemaster – $12.75
Temple of Enlightenment – $7.99
Temple of Malady – $7.89
Perilous Vault – $7.09
Hero’s Downfall – $6.59
Battlefield Forge – $5.65
Sylvan Caryatid – $5.59
Shivan Reef – $4.99
Llanowar Wastes – $4.79
Temple of Epiphany – $4.79
Hornet Nest – $4.59
Stoke the Flames – $4.09
Fleecemane Lion – $3.89
Temple of Plenty – $3.89
Yavimaya Coast – $3.49
Temple of Silence – $3.05
Temple of Deceit – $3.05
Hero of Iroas – $2.99
Temple of Triumph – $2.89
Temple of Malice – $2.09

This is the list of cards I expect to drop the hardest. Most of them are block-specific effects-removal spells and lands that are fantastic in the context
of Standard but which aren’t quite good enough to make the cut in Modern. The Temples and planeswalkers certainly won’t go to zero-Commander players and
the casual crowd will want them-but I bet most of the cards on this list will drop by 50% or more by September first.

Keep For Eternal Play If You Can’t Make The Right Deal

These six cards see play in Modern, and I like them as long-term holds. They’ll drop between now and the end of the summer, though, so if you can trade
them away now and buy back in later, you should save 25-30% on each of these cards.

Keep For Eternal Play

Thoughtseize – $23.49
Eidolon of the Great Revel – $10.29
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth – $9.35
Chord of Calling – $5.05
Anger of the Gods – $2.05
Swan Song – $0.95

The top four cards on this list are trending up right now even though rotation is swiftly approaching. That tells me that there are major factors other
than Standard driving their prices. Anger of the Gods is dropping slowly, but I can’t see a Modern card of this caliber ever being a bad buy at $2. Swan
Song doesn’t technically belong on this list-I set a $2 cutoff-but I wanted to mention it because there should be enough Eternal demand to drive the price
up over the next few years.

Keep For Casual Play If You Can’t Make The Right Deal

All of these cards profile as solid long-term casual cards, and none of them have price tags that are being propped up by insane Standard demand. They’ll
drop at rotation, but most of them won’t fall off very much. Much like the earlier Modern list, these cards are fine to trade away if you can make the
right deal, and okay to keep if you can’t.

Keep For Casual Play

These cards see very little play in Standard, even by rogue deckbuilders. Their value is tied almost entirely to Commander and kitchen table Magic. Because
of that, you can trade into them now and know that you won’t experience much of a drop-off. After all, very few packs of these sets will be opened from now
on, so supply is only going to be dropping from here.

As for the sub-$2 cards, most of them don’t have any room to drop in price. I like to hold onto my bulk rares for years because you never know when a
random Dragon or combo card will break out. Even though Theros block was overprinted compared to cards from the pre-Return to Ravnica
era, I do think that we’ll see some growth from the casual and Eternal side over the next couple of years.

This Week’s Trends

Kolaghan might not be seeing much play in Standard, but her Command sure has found its way into Modern. People are playing this two-for-one in
Jund, Grixis Delver, Grixis Control, and several other brews. Being able to buy it back with Snapcaster Mage is awesome, and the price has been
rising to reflect this new piece of tech. Leyline of the Void has also begun to creep back into the Modern conversation thanks to more people
playing Living End, Anafenza, and delve.
In the world of Legacy, Cunning Wish has started to trend upward in a hurry. This is likely a speculator-fueled buyout, but the fact that it sees
play in a very good deck (Omni-Tell) leads me to believe that the price will stay reasonably high going forward.
Standard is a bear market right now save for Deathmist Raptor, Collected Company, and Den Protector. This is pretty much what I wrote last week, but things haven’t changed all that much. Everyone’s too
focused on Modern Masters to care!
As for Modern Masters 2015, it certainly does seem to have the worst quality control of any set in recent memory. While the internet can
be an echo chamber when it comes to packs missing rares and boxes filled with nothing but foil Rusted Relics, it does seem as though a number of
packs do have issues. If you get a pack without a rare or with cards that are severely damaged or misprinted, you can contact WotC about the issue here. They’re usually very
good about helping players out, and worst case, it will inform them of the scope of the issue. Otherwise, be extra vigilant when trading for Modern Masters 2015 foils. Many of them are scuffed and dinged right out of the pack.
As for the chase cards in Modern Masters 2015, most of them are still slowly dropping. At this point, I’m holding off for a few days and
monitoring the trends. Once I start to see some positive movement, I’ll be buying all of the MM 2015 staples I need. With the GP weekend behind us,
the majority of Modern Masters product has already been opened. I expect the prices to start bouncing back soon.