Q: Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
A: J_Orlive nailed it completely. The chicken was certainly some kind of mutation sprung from the egg of a now extinct animal. The chicken was so smart and deadly, it propagated all over the place. Basic evolution theory, unless you’re a fundamentalist. Than it’s just Inshallah.
The look back over the past decade and a half was fun, but the real trick is seeing the themes that are universal. There are going to be sets in the future, and certain strategies apply no matter what the time period or mechanic a player finds himself facing.
Q: What is the better first pick: Snuff Out or Vendetta?
A: Again, a forum responder got it cold. Daghain wrote: “Snuff Out, by far. Aten once quoted someone as saying ‘two mana isn’t just one more than one, it’s twice as much.’ Well, zero mana isn’t just one more than one, it’s infinity times as much. Every turn as you curve out, you can have Snuff “mana” open for the tempo swing…What does Vendetta offer to balance that? _Sometimes_ you don’t lose quite as much life? Please.”
Let’s ask another question. How many times does a draft game end where a player still has spells in hand? For every unplayed card, that’s a free Disrupting Scepter. For every extra card you played, that’s a Time Walk. A very wise man once said, “whenever I play two spells in one turn, I win.” It’s a little simplistic, but the idea is sound. Snuff Out allows a player to play two cards with impact in one turn. It’s gigantic. In one move you’ve played a threat and removed a blocker. Vendetta could sometimes give you that, but why take the risk? Any time you have the opportunity to affect the board twice over at once, it’s a strong turn.
Q: What was the better overall pick in Saviors: Promised Kannushi or Godo’s Irregulars?
A: Trick question, they’re both awful.
1/1s suck! They’re the lowest form of card. All the vulnerabilities, with none of the pressure. Both the cards mentioned above have absolutely no presence whatsoever. The Irregulars are unblockable, sometimes, and so what? When your opponent wants to kill it they will. Kannushi brings certain creatures back, sometimes, unless your opponent doesn’t want it to.
Again though, it’s a bit simplistic. The real rule is: “1/1s suck unless they can affect cards with higher casting costs.” Sparksmith is still pretty good, and even Elvish Skysweeper has a little game. But far too often you’ll see a player use a 1/1 for its stats, and you just know they took a big trip to Paris.
Drafting is about impact. What cards demand attention? If you can deal with your opponents threats you have all the time in the world to kill them with your cards. If you can’t deal, kill your opponent faster!
The cards that matter are, by definition, the ones your opponent cares about. If he’s good, he’ll care about the relevant stuff. If he’s bad, beat him anyway. The point is, you only have X spots in your deck. You need cards that are important, that aren’t full of maybes, cards that do something once they’re in play. For every Votary of the Conclave or Congregation At Dawn you cast, your opponent will be swinging with Veteran Armorer, or Golgari Rotwurm, or any number of cards that demand being dealt with as soon as possible, be it from killing the creature or killing the owner.
Cards that have the most impact are first picks, and whoever has the most first picks at a table is a big favorite. Do you gain the most from forcing? Only if the players to your left have a clue about missing colors, and they’re feeling complacent, and they care about getting the best cards, and they know what the best cards are. That’s a lot of things that have to go right. There are instances where a color is so strong or so underdrafted that forcing it becomes correct, but these situations are rare. Put your self in line for the most quantity of quality and things should go well.
Finally, the part that makes drafting really engaging, is that it’s organic. What that means is that as a drafter, your needs change after each and every pick. What was a windmill first pick in pack 1 becomes an automatic pass in pack 3. It’s that flexibility of power that really makes the experience fun, and that same flexibility that can get people into trouble.
Yesterday I wrote about Necromantic Thirst being somewhat more playable than people gave it credit for. Does this mean you have to grab one as soon as you can? Certainly not. It does mean that if your deck cooperates, Necromantic Thirst could have a place as part of your overall strategy of winning through attrition and card advantage. It’s terrible if you have no evasion, it’s terrible if you’re trying to win as fast as possible, and it’s really really really terrible if you’re not playing Black. But all that means is that you’re the one in control of when it’s good. All the pick orders in the world won’t tell you when it’s time to draft Civic Wayfinder over Fists of Ironwood over Farseek, because there are instances where each pick is correct. People like trends and percentages to guide them, but every time you sit down and open packs, you need to decide if this is that 1/10 time where Centaur Safeguard is straight up better than Bramble Elemental. It happens.
The drafter’s job is immense, which is why lots of practice is recommended. First, he or she has to evaluate the initial 15 and decide the best cards. Then out of those 1-8, the player has to decide of he or she wants to enter that color and commit to the strategies that card represents. Certainly no pick locks you down, but when the goal is to get multiple first picks, nobody likes to sacrifice them.
After the first card is taken out of the 60 seconds you’re given, you look at the next 14 and decide if there’s a card in there worth taking that meshes with your previous pick, or if it’s time to abandon and start with something new. Repeat 40 more times.
The astute drafter knows many things. He knows what cards are powerful in the abstract, and what cards are useful in relation to the picks from before. The ability to analyze the direction your deck is going while it’s still half-formed could not be more crucial to success. Without that knowledge, you miss out on little pieces of synergy that other drafters, with their other styles, ignore.
Even table dynamics can come into play. If there are a disproportionate number of Red drafters, Red pickings could be scarce. Will all those Red drafters be forced to maindeck Smash? Will you still play all those Signets? Does Wojek Siren become better or worse than normal at this table? And so on.
All you need is questions. Questions about your mana, about your speed, about your route to victory and the ways you lose. If there’s a card that locks up a win once it’s played, why not go defense until you find it? If you already have the ground locked up, why play Junktroller?
Does this card need the stars to align to be useful? Does this card do anything? How many lands will I want to play with? By the time deck construction rolls around, these mysteries should already be decided. You don’t need to stare at your pile hoping a deck will emerge, because you were busy building it while you were drafting.
Your goals are: lots of first picks, impact, and drafting a deck, not just a bunch of cards. These ideas will be useful no matter what set/block/BOO you find yourself sitting down at. Have fun, cause winning sure is.
Tomorrow: Drafting week wraps up with what remains the single greatest format of all time. It won an award, people!
Bonus Trivia:
1. What should the 6th color look like?
2. People, when designing cards, like to:
a: build weak little numbers
b: create cards of fair and balanced power, or
c: make spells and creatures (and lands!) of insane, overwhelming fun severity?
3. Why is Mark Rosewater so short?