Hello everyone, and welcome to the newest set release! Although my regular column (The Real Deal) is on hiatus until after my upcoming wedding and GenCon, Craig’s dragged me out of my self-imposed exile from the front pages of StarCityGames.com to pen this latest in my series of “The Financial Value of…” articles.
For those new to this series, or new to me in general — hi there! My name is Ben Bleiweiss, and I’m the General Manager of StarCityGames.com. My primary job duties include buying, selling and pricing product for this here website. In short, responsibility for inventory falls on my shoulders, and so in order to do my job well, I have to keep on top of what’s hot in the world of Magic, and anticipate market trends.
Base sets are an interesting animal, because they fall outside the normal scheme of Magic releases.
1) Every card in Tenth Edition is a reprint. Sure, some of the cards are obscure (Loyal Sentry, from Starter ’99) and some haven’t seen print in years (Aura of Silence, from Weatherlight). This reduces the number of Tenth Edition cards in circulation, because players who normally crack packs/boxes/cases to obtain new cards are less inclined to do so for a set that offers them little to nothing new.
2) Tenth Edition Booster Draft isn’t going to be widely pushed as a tournament format, at least offline. It will be played on Magic Online due to the convenience of being able to find eight people at once who want to Tenth Edition Draft, but most players in the physical world will be playing Time Spiral/Planar Chaos/Future Sight drafts, or the upcoming Lorwyn drafts just down the road. This will also limit the number of Tenth Edition cards coming into circulation.
3) The primary customers for base sets, traditionally, are those who are just getting into the game, or players who do not have a very extensive collection. These players skew very casual, and are more likely to play in local playgroups, and less likely to show up for Friday Night Magic or PTQs. This also means that their Tenth Edition cards will tend to stay out of the circulation (via trade) to the general public.
So in short, there will be many, many fewer Tenth Edition singles floating out there than, say, Future Sight. This makes it harder to obtain the cards that are in Tenth Edition, which inflated the price somewhat for singles over regular set releases. This goes doubly for foils — you only need look at Foil Goblin Matron (7th Edition, Uncommon – $40) or Foil Merchant Scroll (8th Edition, Uncommon – $30) to see the prices that base set foils can jump to due to scarcity and demand. Caveat Emptor — these prices are also contingent on previous versions of foils of that card being non-existent or hard-to-find, so a Foil Wrath (7th, 8th, 9th, Player Rewards Promo) will not have the price shock of, say, Squee, Goblin Nabob or Mogg Fanatic.
Another factor in the price of Tenth Edition is that this set is the first black-bordered base set since Beta. Aesthetically speaking, most players would rather have black-bordered over white-bordered versions of cards. This contributed to the success and popularity (and inflated prices) of Russian Ninth Edition product in the United States — it was the first black-bordered base set since 4th Edition, and the only reliable way to obtain black-bordered non-foil versions of some harder-to-get cards (Kird Ape, Cruel Edict, Tidings).
In short, Tenth Edition singles have a lot going for them as far as pricing is concerned. Scarcity, demand, and lack of a consistent influx of new supply will all contribute to increased prices for Tenth Edition singles (especially in-demand foils), so this weekend — the Tenth Edition Release Event/Magic Game Day is your absolute best opportunity to score Tenth Edition singles.
As far as the cards go, it is easier for me to throw out a bunch of prices on these cards, since they all have, indeed, seen print before. Some cards will run higher prices than in the past — due to changes in the competitive environments/card pools — while others may have dropped a bit. We’ve been pre-selling Tenth Edition Singles for a couple of weeks now, as the entire set was spoiled on MTGSalvation.com at end of June. Purportedly, the information for Tenth Edition at MTGSalvation.com came directly from a Tenth Edition Fat Pack player’s guide, so the information on their spoiler should be pretty darn accurate. As usual, all credit for spoilers (and blame for incorrect information) goes to them.
Since this is a reprint set, I’ve broken down the sections by color, and then subdivided them into five categories. These are:
High-Dollar Rares (cards that will be driven in value by tournament play or the higher-end casual cards)
Mid-Range Rares (cards that have a value of around $2-$5 due to their popularity with casual players)
Bulk Rares (Rares that are pretty much junk)
Uncommons/Commons of Note (Ones that will command a premium price over bulk)
High-Demand Foils (Foil that will be sharply valued over a non-foil version of the same card)
White:
High-Dollar Rares: Paladin en-Vec ($7.50-$10), Reya Dawnbringer ($10-$15), Wrath of God ($15ish)
Mid-Range Rares: Angelic Chorus ($4-$5), Beacon of Immortality ($4-$5), Cho-Manno Revolutionary ($2-$3), Field Marshal ($2-$3), Glorious Anthem ($4-$5), Loyal Sentry ($2-$3), Mobilization ($2-$3), Pariah ($2-$3), Serra Angel ($3-$5), Story Circle ($3-$4), True Believer ($3-$5), Voice of All ($2-$3), Windborn Muse ($2-$3)
Bulk Rares: Kjeldoran Royal Guard, Nomad Mythmaker, Righteousness
Uncommons/Commons of Note: Condemn ($1-$2), Soul Warden ($1)
High-Demand Foils: Reya Dawnbringer ($30-$40), Rule of Law ($4-$5)
Notes about White: Foil Reya Dawnbringer is the release foil, and they will probably end up settling anywhere between $15 and $25 each — and they will also drive down the price somewhat of regular Foil Reya Dawnbringers from the $50-$60 range. Story Circle and True Believer may be the big winners from the previously-printed categories, as they replace Circle of Protection: Red and Ivory Mask with tournament players.
Blue:
High-Demand Rares: Traumatize ($8-$10), Twincast ($7-$8)
Mid-Range Rares: Ambassador Laquatus ($3-$4), Arcanis the Omnipotent ($3-$5), Clone ($2-$3), Denizen of the Deep ($2-$3), Hurkyl’s Recall ($2-$4), Scalpelexis ($2-$3), Time Stop ($2-$3), Time Stretch ($2-$3)
Bulk Rares: Cephalid Constable, Dreamborn Muse, Evacuation, Mahamoti Djinn, March of the Machines, Mind Bend, Plagiarize, Rootwater Matriarch, Sunken Hope
Uncommons/Commons of Note: Cancel ($.50-$.75), Telling Time ($1), Tidings ($3-$5)
High-Demand Foils: Boomerang ($3-$4), Cancel ($4-$6), Hurkyl’s Recall ($20-$25), Spiketail Hatchling ($3-$5)
Notes about Blue: I expect Hurkyl’s Recall foil to be the most in-demand foil in Tenth Edition, as it’s the most-played Vintage/Legacy card that has never had a previously printed foil version. In addition, it is an excellent hoser against Affinity, which is always a consideration for Extended play (and even more-so after the Extended Rotation in 2008). Blue took a big hit in Tenth Edition, losing a ton of playable cards in the Common/Uncommon slot (Mana Leak, Sleight of Hand, Annex, Confiscate) that were popular foils.
Black:
High-Demand Rares: Grave Pact ($5-$7), Hypnotic Specter ($6-$8), Phage the Untouchable ($7.50-$10), Royal Assassin ($5-$6)
Mid-Range Rares: Ascendant Evincar ($2-$4), Beacon of Unrest ($2-$4), Doomed Necromancer ($2-$4), Graveborn Muse ($2-$4), Mortivore($3-$4), Nightmare ($2-$3), Sengir Vampire ($2-$3), Underworld Dreams ($4-$5)
Bulk Rares: Head Games, Lord of the Pit, Midnight Ritual, Mortal Combat, Plague Wind, Sleeper Agent
Uncommons/Commons of Note: Cruel Edict ($3ish), Deathmark ($1), Diabolic Tutor ($2), Megrim ($1-$1.50), Nekrataal ($1), Relentless Rats ($2.50-$3.50)
High-Demand Foils: Distress ($2-$3), Hidden Horror ($5-$7)
Notes about Black: I’d probably pick up a playset of Graveborn Muse now, because it has the potential to jump to chase rare (no guarantees, but the possibility is there for this card moreso than almost any other rare in the set.). Hidden Horror is the first foil version of that card (or Portal’s Mercenary Knight). Relentless Rats will be driven by the need for players to buy 15-25 copies at once, especially with Thrumming Stone in the environment. It will be worth more than the majority of Tenth Edition rares to casual players.
Red:
High-Demand Rares: Squee, Goblin Nabob ($10-$12)
Mid-Range Rares: Beacon of Destruction ($2-$3), Dragon Roost ($2-$3), Furnace of Rath ($2-$3), Goblin King ($2-$3), Kamahl, Pit Fighter ($3-$4), Seismic Assault ($2-$4), Shivan Dragon ($3-$4), Shivan Hellkite ($4-$6), Siege-Gang Commander ($3-$5)
Bulk Rares: Bloodfire Colossus, Flowstone Slide, Lavaborn Muse, Manabarbs, Relentless Assault, Soulblast, Warp World
Uncommons/Commons of Note: Cryoclasm ($2-$3), Goblin Lore ($2-$4), Incinerate ($1), Mogg Fanatic ($2-$3), Pyroclasm ($2-$3)
High-Demand Foils: Goblin Lore ($10-$15), Incinerate ($7-$10), Mogg Fanatic ($10-$15), Shatterstorm ($5-$7.50), Shock ($2-$3),
Notes on Red: Cryoclasm is the closest replacement to Stone Rain in Red for now, though I suspect that the removal of Stone Rain means that Wizards will finally be able to print three-mana land destruction variants in expansion sets. Goblin Lore Foil will be another high-demand foil heavily coveted by Vintage and Legacy players. I can see Incinerate Foil (the only foil version other than Deckmasters) hitting the upwards of the $10 range (as a common foil) due to demand. Mogg Fanatic Foil will also be in high demand (the only other foil version is a long-past DCI foil promo). Seismic Assault will peak while Ravnica is still around (thanks to interaction with Life from the Loam) but should drop in price upon the release of Lorwyn. Trade them away now. Conversely, Squee, Goblin Nabob will hold its high value — it’s really, really good with Dredge, any discard effect (Razormane Masticore, spellshapers), and has general utility that will make it versatile across multiple formats.
Green:
High-Demand Rares: Birds of Paradise ($12-$15), Elvish Piper ($6-$8), Quirion Dryad ($4-$6), Troll Ascetic ($10-$15)
Mid-Range Rares: Avatar of Might ($2-$3), Elvish Champion ($4-$6), Joiner Adept ($2-$4), Might of Oaks ($3-$4), Mirri, Cat Warrior ($2-$4), Molimo, Maro-Sorcerer ($2-$3), Rhox ($2-$3), Root Maze ($2-$3), Seedborn Muse ($3-$4), Verdant Force ($4-$5)
Bulk Rares: Abundance, Gaea’s Herald, Hurricane, Scion of the Wild, Upwelling
Uncommons/Commons of Note: Blanchwood Armor ($1-$1.50), Overrun ($1-$2), Sylvan Scrying ($1ish)
High-Demand Foils: Llanowar Elves ($5-$7), Naturalize ($3ish), Root Maze ($10-$15)
Notes on Green: I’d pick up a playset of Abundance while they are at bulk price, just in case someone does something naughty with it. I think that Overrun will be the uncommon that breaks out in this set, as Standard has slowed down the one turn that Overrun has needed to be a house — I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up at a $3ish Uncommon by December. The highest-demand rare from Tenth (so far) is Quirion Dryad, and it seems to be the card that the highest-level tournament players are most excited about — pick up a playset ASAP, as this one could jump quite a bit as well. It’s been proven to be able to hang with the big boys in both Legacy and Vintage, so it’s not an unproven gamble. Root Maze Foil is another Vintage/Legacy card being foiled for the first time.
Artifact:
High-Demand Rares: Coat of Arms ($10ish), Crucible of Worlds ($12-$15), Pithing Needle ($20-$25), Platinum Angel ($12-$15)
Mid-Range Rares: Howling Mine ($4-$5), Loxodon Warhammer ($2-$3), Razormane Masticore ($3-$4), Sculpting Steel ($2-$3)
Bulk Rares: Chimeric Staff, Citanul Flute, Colossus of Sardia, Doubling Cube, Jayemdae Tome, Legacy Weapon, The Hive
Uncommons/Commons of Note: Ornithopter ($1)
High-Demand Foils: Chromatic Star ($4-$5), Mind Stone ($2-$3), Ornithopter ($3-$5)
Notes on Artifacts: Pithing Needle, Crucible of Worlds, and Platinum Angel are some nice money-card additions to the set. Some people are claiming that Citanul Flute will be played in Standard, so they might be worth picking up early, if you can get them in the $1-$2ish dollar range (trade or otherwise). Razormane Masticore looks to be the big winner over the last time it saw print — there’s a lot less anti-artifact effects floating around than during Mirrodin Block, and he also has Squee to play with.
Land:
High-Demand Rares: Adarkar Wastes ($5-$7), Forge[/author]“]Battlefield [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author] ($6-$8), Brushland ($4-$5), Caves of Koilos ($7-$8), Karplusan Forest ($5-$6), Llanowar Wastes ($5-$6), Shivan Reef ($8-$10), Sulfurous Springs ($5-$6), Underground River ($6-$8), Yavimaya Coast ($8-$10)
Mid-Range Rares: None
Bulk Rares: None
Uncommons/Commons of Note: Faerie Conclave ($2-$3), Quicksand ($1), Treetop Village ($2-$3)
High-Demand Foils: None
Notes about Lands: All of the lands in this set are good. Faerie Conclave and Treetop Village are the stand-out manlands, and both will start slowly due to an influx of Urza’s Legacy versions. The same thing happened to Avalanche Riders when it was first released in Time Spiral, and it’s doubled in price since then. Pick up those two lands in particular. Also, the price on individual painlands are subject to flux based on what is being played in Standard, and what type of mana-fixing arrives once the Ravnica Shocklands rotate out, and Lorwyn lands rotate in. Lands are never a bad investment, because they hold their value across multiple decks. Ironically, it’s the most printed painlands (the Ice Age ones) that will be most sought after, as there are more white-bordered painlands from that set than black-bordered, whereas the converse it true for Apocalypse enemy pain lands.
That’s all from me… may your Game Day experience be a good one!
Ben