Today I am going to talk about the impact of M10 on the Elemental archetype for the metagame I expect in the first few weeks after M10 is released.
What does Elementals lose / gain?
Loses:
Forge[/author]“]Battlefield [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]
Gains:
Nothing
The loss of Forge[/author]“]Battlefield [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author] is not too bad, and the loss of painlands actually makes me pretty happy in general, as it is much harder to splash Zealous Persecution into a Mono-White deck.
How do I expect the metagame to look in the first few weeks after the release of M10?
Decks that will rise in popularity:
Mono-White Aggro decks
I didn’t write “Kithkin” here because I expect a fair amount of Soldier-based strategies as well. Honor of the Pure pumps up both decks far better than Glorious Anthem did before, while it doesn’t have any big losses. The soldier theme makes two different White aggro strategies possible, and I expect many people to explore that theme in the first few weeks.
Black/Red aggro decks
Even though I think losing Mogg Fanatic and Incinerate is bigger than winning Ball Lightning and Lightning Bolt, I think the deck gains in popularity because of those cards. The deck loses one of its much-needed early drops in Mogg Fanatic, and gains another three-drop. Aside from Boggart Ram-Gang, Ashenmoor Gouger, Shambling Remains, Anathemancer, Volcanic Fallout, Blightning, and Flame Javelin, you can now choose Ball Lightning. Chaotic Backlash will get a lot better, as most Spectral Procession decks will lean towards Mono-White.
Faeries
This is another deck that will rise in popularity, as it doesn’t lose anything devastating in the rotation. The new dual land might be an upgrade over Underground River. Elves, which was a very tough matchup, is losing a lot of popularity, while the loss of Treetop Village should be a happy price to pay for the loss of Faerie Conclave.
Decks that will decline in popularity:
Cascade Swans
As Seismic Assault is not in M10 anymore, the deck is simply dead. The best point about this is that Seismic Swans was by far your worst match up.
Black/Green Elves
B/G Elves are losing Treetop Village, Llanowar Wastes, and Civic Wayfarer, while they don’t gain a lot. Even though the deck is still playable, the losses really hurt the core of the deck.
Black/White Tokens
Caves of Koilos is a very big loss for the deck, and even though the deck is still very playable, it loses Glorious Anthem too. Honor of the Pure is much worse in the deck, as it doesn’t work with Murderous Redcap and Bitterblossom.
Kithkin-splash-Black
Splashing for Zealous Persecution is just way harder than it was before. With only Fetid Heath, and potentially Arcane Sanctum left I don’t think many players will choose to splash Zealous Persecution in their mono white aggro deck.
Doran
The loss of all the pain lands and Treetop Village hurts the manabase so badly that I don’t expect to face this deck anymore.
With that in mind, this is the list I would play for the first few weeks after M10 is released.
Creatures (36)
- 2 Soul Warden
- 3 Cloudthresher
- 4 Flamekin Harbinger
- 4 Horde of Notions
- 4 Incandescent Soulstoke
- 4 Mulldrifter
- 4 Smokebraider
- 4 Reveillark
- 4 Bloom Tender
- 3 Ranger of Eos
Lands (23)
Spells (1)
The main deck is still very similar as it was before. I am running more Cloudthreshers again because the match up against Fae is very close and I expect it to gain lots of popularity. I did run 4 Ranger of Eos for a while, but I expect to face Elves and other similar strategies where Ranger of Eos is shining way fewer.
One of the bigger questions for the deck is which removal spell you want to be running.
Nameless Inversion
It is much cheaper than Crib Swap, and it is much easier to stabilize boards in the early game as you don’t build up your opponent’s board with a token. In the late game you can kill bigger targets like Wilt-Leaf Liege as well, thanks to Horde of Notions. It can’t deal with Chameleon Colossus, which I expect to face much less, and Baneslayer Angel.
Shriekmaw
Kills almost everything in the format, and has some synergy with Soul Warden and Incandescent Soulstoke. It is a comfortable way to deal with Baneslayer Angel, but it can’t be replayed with Horde of Notions several times a turn.
Crib Swap
Kills everything in the format aside from Baneslayer Angel. The exile aspect of the card is relevant against Reveillark-based strategies. The token is a huge disadvantage in the early game, but it actually becomes an advantage later on. If you start controlling the board with recurring removal spell, your opponent doesn’t have a lot of time left to kill you, and Soul Warden accumulates some life thanks to the tokens, which makes it almost impossible for them to kill you in time.
I suggest you to play the removal spell which is the most comfortable for you. All of them have advantages and disadvantages, and none of them is strictly better than any other. If you choose to run Crib Swap or Nameless Inversion, you should definitely add a Shriekmaw to the sideboard just so you are able to deal with Baneslayer Angel (aside from Reveillark/ Mulldrifter pumped up by several Incandescent Soulstoke). If you are running the Shriekmaw, you have to run another recurrable removal spell in your sideboard, as you just need it in order to win some matchups (like Reveillark or the mirror).
Sideboard:
1 Shriekmaw
1 Cloudthresher
3 Spellbreaker Behemoth
3 Forge[/author]-Tender”]Burrenton [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]-Tender
3 Stillmoon Cavalier
1 Soul Warden
1 Ranger of Eos
1 Nova Chaser
1 Flamekin Spitfire
The sideboard gets a lot of room because you don’t have to waste slots on Swans anymore. You can finally drop those Fulminator Mages as well, because with the new ruling they are always a Stone Rain and not trading two-for-one anymore. And I figured out that, even against Five-Color Control, a Stone Rain is not worth it. The deck is just far too slow to get enough advantage out of it.
The Shriekmaw can be any of the above removal spells if you are running the Shriekmaw main deck. I use Shriekmaw in this example because I am running the Crib Swap maindeck.
Against Faeries, I really want to move up to four Cloudthreshers post-board. To support those I am running Spellbreaker Behemoths over Eyes of the Wisent right now. Not only do they interact very well with Cloudthresher and Horde of Notions, they also support a big body themselves. Eyes of the Wisent has to do a lot of work until it can keep up with Spellbreaker Behemoth. This is one of the reasons I am running 23 lands right now (I did cut the Springleaf Drum because it can be very awkward against Faeries if you are drawing first). Another reason to run Spellbreaker Behemoth is because it actually does something in other matchups. Red/Black aggro decks have a lot of trouble dealing with big guys like him.
A turn 1 Forge[/author]-Tender”]Burrenton [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]-Tender is almost impossible to beat for Red/Black aggro, and as I expect the deck to be played a lot at the beginning of the new Standard, I will be playing several Forge-Tenders to fight them comfortably.
As I expect most Spectral Procession decks to be moving away from Black because of the loss of Caves of Koilos, I was able to cut the Shields of Velis Vel (or Mirror Entity) from the sideboard to fight that card. This enabled me to support another card to fight White in the sideboard. I am running some Stillmoon Cavaliers in this slot now because, combined with Soul Warden, they should easily be able to deliver you the time you need against those strategies. The card also has some potential against some Jund builds that are running only Black removal (Jund Charm over Volcanic Fallout, and Maelstrom Pulse) combined with the usual Jund core, where the three relevant abilities of Stillmoon Cavalier really shine — Protection from Black, Protection from White, and First Strike (Putrid Leech, Kitchen Finks, and Bloodbraid Elf).
Ranger of Eos is there to fight every removal-based deck (Elves, Jund, Black/Red, Five-Color) and you are almost always winning if you manage to resolve one of those.
Nova Chaser is here to fight Wrath of God Hallowed Burial strategies. With an Incandescent Soulstoke in play, you can save your best guy from the Wrath effect. You can always champion a Flamekin Harbinger with it, and if they need to Burial your board you can fetch it up again to build up a very good clock. With an active Soulstoke, it is also a perfect answer to Sower of Temptation.
The Flamekin Spitfire has been a very good weapon for me in the mirror, but I have to admit that I didn’t do a lot of testing with it. In theory it is also a weapon against Combo-Elves, but the deck has not shown up a lot so far, and I don’t expect that to change. There are just some decks people don’t like to play, and this is one of them.
This is how I would sideboard against the most popular archetypes. I will not include any strategy advise here, as I did this for most matchups in an earlier article.
Mono White Aggro
+3 Stillmoon Cavalier
+1 Soul Warden
-2 Cloudthresher
-2 Reveillark
Black/Red Aggro
+3 Forge[/author]-Tender”]Burrenton [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]-Tender
+3 Spellbreaker Behemoth
+1 Ranger of Eos
+1 Soul Warden
-1 Crib Swap
-4 Incandescent Soulstoke
-3 Cloudthresher
Faeries
+3 Spellbreaker Behemoth
+1 Cloudthresher
+3 Stillmooon Cavalier
-1 Ranger of Eos
-3 Reveillark
-2 Soul Warden
-1 Horde of Notions
Jund
+1 Ranger of Eos
+2 Forge[/author]-Tender”]Burrenton [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]-Tender
(+3 Stillmoon Cavalier)
-3 Cloudthresher
(-1 Soul Warden, -2 Incandescent Soulstoke)
Reveillark
+3 Stillmoon Cavalier
+1 Nova Chaser
-2 Soul Warden
-2 Horde of Notions
Green/White Tokens
+1 Soul Warden
+3 Stillmoon Cavalier
-2 Cloudthresher
-2 Horde of Notions
Black/White Tokens
+1 Cloudthresher
+1 Soul Warden
+1 Ranger of Eos
-2 Reveillark
-1 Crib Swap
It might be confusing that I am not boarding Stillmoon Cavalier against a Black/White strategy, but they have so many token generators that it doesn’t stabilize the board very well, while Zealous Persecution is their best card against you, and you don’t want to board in more cards that just die to it.
Elves
+1 Ranger of Eos
+1 Shriekmaw
+1 Nova Chaser
-3 Cloudthresher
Five-Color Cascade
+1 Nova Chaser
+3 Forge[/author]-Tender”]Burrenton [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]-Tender
+1 Ranger of Eos
(+1 Shriekmaw if they have the Angel)
-3 Cloudthresher
-1 Soul Warden
-1 Crib Swap
(-1 Soul Warden)
Five-Color Control with Baneslayer Angel
+1 Shriekmaw
+1 Nova Chaser
+1 Cloudthresher
+1 Ranger of Eos
-2 Soul Warden
-2 Horde of Notions
I don’t think it’s worth boarding in Spellbreaker Behemoth here, unless they have an insane amount of countermagic. They just have too many removal spells for the Behemoth to be worth it.
That is it for this week! My Nationals is held this weekend, and I will report from it next week. So, unless your Nationals have already been completed by then, I’ll do my best to help you prepare for your Nationals competition!
Thanks for reading…
Manu