As I’ve continued exploring the Standard format, I’ve noticed a distinct bias within my preferences. I’ve steadfastly refused to play Abzan or similar
midrange decks, favoring the ability to either remain very aggressive or to select archetypes that generate more tempo. With the exception of Abzan Aggro a
la Mike Sigrist, most Abzan decks are incapable of making a significant play for the board until turn 3, and if they lack a Caryatid or Mystic then that
play won’t come until turn 4. Courser of Kruphix is a nice card, but it’s not breaking anyone.
While it began as an unconscious preference, once I realized what was happening I started really leaning into it and using it to examine the decks I was
playing. Why did these strategies draw my attention? To be quite honest, by and large they haven’t been especially dominant at the tournament level,
boasting more solid finishes than trophies. What’s the draw?
It’s really all about tempo for me. Taking the initiative and forcing your opponent to react while you generate damage is a recipe for success across
decades and formats. There are certainly Standard pitfalls for this goal–Rhinoceros-shaped pitfalls, in fact–but it’s difficult for me to believe that
those problems can’t be solved.
That’s because this Standard format has been affected by the play/draw dynamic much more than most thus far. Sure, in last Standard the play meant you
could play Pack Rat into two mana instead of three, but in the vast majority of matchups you would still be happy jamming it into three or just waiting
until turn 5. There weren’t many matchups where your sideboarding or gameplay decisions met massive upheaval based on the play/draw, with Owen Turtenwald’s
staunch support of Devour Flesh being the most notable deckbuilding option exercised in the face of the differences.
Let’s examine some of the most common openings for a look at exactly what I mean.
Creatures (21)
- 4 Fleecemane Lion
- 4 Herald of Torment
- 2 Heir of the Wilds
- 3 Anafenza, the Foremost
- 4 Rakshasa Deathdealer
- 4 Siege Rhino
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (21)
Spells (15)
The general draw to Team Face to Face’s Abzan Aggro deck is that you get to go Fleecemane Lion or Rakshasa Deathdealer into Anafenza, presenting two
attackers capable of breaking through Courser of Kruphix’s four toughness when they attack on turn 4. This is a good place to be in essentially every
matchup… at least on the play.
Consider that sequence on the draw against an opponent who has opened on Sylvan Caryatid or Elvish Mystic into Siege Rhino. You’ve got a two-drop in play
and the option to either cast a 4/4–which is already getting trumped by their 4/5 and vulnerable to whatever play they might make next–or to spend your
turn on a removal spell and throw it back to the opponent, who will essentially break even on the Rhino’s lifegain as a result but be quickly advancing
towards a planeswalker on a threat-light board.
If the Abzan Aggro player has the play, then they’ll have open mana and Anafenza already in play when the same Siege Rhino joins the party. Suddenly,
they’re attacking for about a third of your life total while eliminating the Rhino. Two threats are already on the board, outlawing essentially every
planeswalker play that could follow, and you’ll be hitting five mana to monstrous a Lion before Elspeth could come down and two-for-one you, or be able to
keep two up to regenerate Deathdealer.
The exact same cards, the exact same openings, drastically different advantages based on who went first. For an even simpler example, just compare casting
turn 3 or 4 Sorin, Solemn Visitor against a creature vs. against an empty board. The options afforded are significantly different!
Creatures (10)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (25)
Spells (22)
Playing against Jeskai Aggro once more illustrates the issue handily, and I’d like to use it for some deeper analysis. On the play, Jeskai gets to cast
Mantis Rider into:
1) An untapped land and a tapped one
2) A two-drop
3) Two open mana
Essentially nothing kills it in the first scenario, it threatens to defend from the two-drop in the second, and only Lightning Strike or the uncommonly
maindecked Bile Blight are really taking care of it with two mana up. Goblin Rabblemaster in turn can threaten to create a cascading advantage if it goes
unchecked for just a turn, but having a non-Caryatid two-drop already in play or a Magma Jet available weakens him significantly. They’re most frequently
going to take three damage and then spend their next turn killing the Rider, offering Jeskai another opening.
However, if you’re on the play, you’ve got the opportunity to play a two-drop into one mana, meaning the opponent must tap out to answer it if it’s a
legitimate threat. That in turn grants you the magical turn 3 against an opponent who can’t interact, pushing you ahead on the board in essentially every
scenario. Think about it; does anyone in this format play a three-drop that isn’t good against Jeskai?
The ramifications of these interaction points ripple across the entire Standard format. We already know that Abzan beats Jeskai by assuming the control
role and using its considerable potential for gaining life to avoid death by fire. While Abzan is currently claiming the title of best deck, it’s Jeskai
that is actually the metronome of the format. How does everyone else handle it?
Creatures (15)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (19)
Spells (22)
Playing the Jeskai matchup as Mardu Midrange, you very quickly learn to almost never play Seeker of the Way on turn 2 on the draw, at least if they have
two untapped mana available. You risk losing your two-drop to a Jet or Strike and being hit by a Mantis Rider or Goblin Rabblemaster with nothing on your
board. Then you’re stuck spending turn 3 killing the Rider once it’s already dealt you three damage, or a Rabblemaster whose token will continue thumping
you for a bit. Waiting until you can cast Seeker of the Way while also defending yourself is a stronger line, and if you can get the Jeskai player to hold
off on their creature then that gets you to turn 3, where things like Hordeling Outburst will restore the initiative to you.
On the play, it’s a completely different story. For some additional examples, refer to Brad’s recent article explaining his common sideboarding choices with
Mardu. They often vary significantly as you adjust who’s on the play or the draw.
Creatures (32)
- 2 Hornet Queen
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Polukranos, World Eater
- 1 Nylea, God of the Hunt
- 4 Sylvan Caryatid
- 2 Arbor Colossus
- 4 Voyaging Satyr
- 4 Courser of Kruphix
- 2 Eidolon of Blossoms
- 4 Doomwake Giant
- 1 Pharika, God of Affliction
Lands (17)
Spells (11)
This Pantheon Green Devotion list is pretty similar to what we were seeing prior to the Pro Tour, with the exception of See the Unwritten. Green Devotion
has been pretty aggressively preyed upon by Jeskai in the early months of this Standard format specifically because whether it’s on the play or on the
draw, it’s essentially always unable to answer Jeskai’s plays that build initiative. The matchup is by and large a race regardless of who starts on the
play, but the Jeskai player can actually mess with Devotion’s sequences. See the Unwritten grants Devotion the ability to jump ahead, which is significant,
or to luck into a fast Hornet Queen.
Contrast it to the developments I first saw in the hands of Makihito Mihara, choices that were mirrored this weekend at Grand Prix Stockholm.
Creatures (31)
- 4 Hornet Queen
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Polukranos, World Eater
- 4 Sylvan Caryatid
- 4 Voyaging Satyr
- 4 Courser of Kruphix
- 3 Eidolon of Blossoms
- 4 Doomwake Giant
Lands (17)
Spells (12)
Whip of Erebos is a massive haymaker against Jeskai, often stealing the game on the turn you play it. It makes a lot of sense to try and push it into this
deck, because it shores up what was, at the time, your most common bad matchup. We’ve seen the scale tip further toward that side of the spectrum in
Stockholm; Satyr Wayfinder and Commune with the Gods both fuel the Whip, while the latter actually finds it as well. Plus, Murderous Cut offers some actual
interaction!
Two pretty different versions of this same spin made the Top 8, but this is the one I favor. The correct list likely lies somewhere between Lukas Blohon’s
and Matteo’s but speaking frankly… I won’t be sleeving up Brain Maggot any time soon.
Creatures (26)
- 3 Hornet Queen
- 3 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Sylvan Caryatid
- 2 Reaper of the Wilds
- 3 Courser of Kruphix
- 3 Satyr Wayfinder
- 4 Eidolon of Blossoms
- 4 Doomwake Giant
Lands (14)
Spells (20)
Okay, so now we’ve got a general idea on the power of being the first to make it onto the board in Standard. It’s a huge influence, and there are two
really big takeaways:
1) Being able to neutralize a three-drop (or bigger) and play a threat in the same turn is very strong.
2) A good two-drop gives you a large advantage on the play by setting you up for even better turn 3s, but most two-drops are mediocre on the draw.
Cards like Stubborn Denial, Chained to the Rocks, and Murderous Cut are awesome because they give you the potential to quickly make two board-defining
plays. They’re tricky to play, but I’m convinced we just haven’t found all of the right formulas yet. Meanwhile, Seeker of the Way, Fleecemane Lion, and
Rakshasa Deathdealer have all proven themselves to be early drops fully capable of clubbing someone to death if left unchecked.
These are the truths that define who’s ahead in the game before the real haymakers start landing. I’m talking about the Wingmate Rocs, Sarkhans, and
Elspeths of the format. While these spells are all capable of helping you claw your way back into a game, where they most excel is when you’re already
ahead on the board; at that point they often shut the door on the opponent.
Of course, you don’t always have to be curving up into planeswalkers and such. You can also just be trying to jam your way ahead of the opponent, turn
after turn, as I most recently did at Grand Prix Los Angeles with soldiers… but Obelisk of Urd is, in all actuality, the same concept! It just happens to
land faster, allowing that archetype to steal the initiative with a stream of hyper-efficient 3/3s or a massive Launch the Fleet.
Creatures (16)
Lands (12)
Spells (32)
The costs? You’re more synergy-driven with lower individual card power, making you theoretically more vulnerable to elements like mulligans and
Thoughtseize… But that combo flourish at the end can make up for those weaknesses more often than you’d expect!
I like to get my leg up by staying low to the ground and pushing ahead quickly. Trumps are great–I’ve already discussed Whip a bit above, but cards like
Anger of the Gods, Doomwake Giant, and Hornet Queen can offer similar tactical superiority in the right matchups. My issue? Whip generally requires board
presence, Doomwake is either great or a 4/6 for five, and Queen is a seven-drop that gets worse once opponents can sideboard answers. I want to be able to
favorably leverage tempo whenever the opportunity is available, which means playing threat-dense decks that present consistent pressure.
There’s nothing wrong with making them have it, in this day and age. They usually won’t.
It’s easy to see Standard as something of a two-deck format, with Jeskai and Abzan seated upon the thrones and everything else pushing for a seat at the
table. I think that’s true, but don’t lose sight of the fact that there are actually seats available! I’m confident we haven’t seen all that Standard has
to offer, and new ideas are continuing to crop up on Magic Online and in Grand Prix events.
Personally, I’m still brewing. I think I’ve got a pretty exciting one cooked up for the SCG in Oakland this weekend, and with Portland and the Invitational
both following shortly I’m certainly hoping to strike gold. However, that’ll have to be the story for next week!