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Going Infinite – The Art of Analysis

Monday, August 23rd – In today’s edition of Going Infinite, Jonathan Medina delves into the arena of card and trade analysis. Maximize your profits by asking a few simple questions…

Trading is an art. Many people make trades, but it’s rare that you find a true trader, someone who understands the balance of a deal and the importance of a reputation. I can’t teach you the art of trading in its fullness, because it requires that a person posses skills and traits that are difficult to develop. Last week, I gave you a glimpse into my childhood, where I developed these skills and cultivated the traits that would later make me who I am today. This week we are going to focus on one of the skills that it takes to become a good trader and build a solid reputation: Analysis.

Air Zebras

When I was younger, I was an outcast. I remember in sixth grade, the kids with which I played basketball used to make fun of my shoes. We got them out of the bargain bin at Payless. I think they might have cost something like $7 for two pairs. My brother was much cooler than me, so he picked out a print that was passable, or maybe the fact that he was cool made the print passable. Me, on the other hand? I could only find ones that had Zebra print. There I was on the basketball court, with what affectionately became known as my Air Zebras.

Between my shoes and my afro – let’s not even get into that one – the kids at school had plenty of ammo with which to insult me. This did a good thing for me. It trigged the reflective analyst in me, and I became an observer of people. In order to hold onto my sense of self and my self esteem, I had to analyze the insults and the people making them. I had to ask questions like “Is this statement true? If it’s true does it have value? Am I less of a person because I wear Air Zebras? Am I a greater person that the kid wearing Air Jordans? Who is the kid wearing Air Jordans? Why does he feel the need to verbally attack me?” We have to ask the same type of questions in Magic about opponents and decks, and from a trading perspective, about trade partners and cards.

Hanging with the Homies

The root of trading is proper analysis. You need to know your audience, and you need to understand the ultimate truth which encapsulates your audience. Specifically, when the community says a card is good or bad, you have to find the truth. At the moment, this is all a bit abstract, but if you look deeper, you will see that proper analysis is practical for a trader. Let’s look at a more relevant example.

Can you tell me what kind of decks that each guy at your local store likes to build? What cards are they missing for their EDH deck? Do you know why they play Magic? Magic is a hiding place, somewhere we go to escape. What are the people in your store escaping from? I bet you don’t know the answers to most of these questions. The reason why you don’t know is because we are all naturally self-centered. The people around us only matter in the context of our lives. Instead of getting to know people or trying to understand them, we only see them through the” what-can-they-do-for-me” lens. This attitude kills our ability to serve people, and this, in turn, kills our ability to profit.

After living in Vermont for five years, I transferred to Ohio. In Vermont, I had already established myself as a dealer. I knew all the different people that played at the stores I frequented, and what they were looking for. When I moved to Ohio, I need to re-establish myself. I surveyed the internet for nearby stores, and then made it a point to visit each store. Instead of having a trading focus when I went to the new stores, I just played whatever format that they were playing and talked with all the guys. I wanted to get to know them, as well as introduce myself. After a couple of weeks of playing and hanging out, I started to form a list of cards that the guys needed in my head. This made it easy for me to enter the trading culture.

Consider these two approaches: “Hey Mark, I have that Elspeth that you were looking for… did you still need it?” When I first moved to Ohio, I couldn’t even construct this sentence. It would’ve been more like this, “Mark? Who’s that? He’s looking for an Elspeth?” If I hadn’t played Type 4 with Mark at Steak and Shake the week before, I wouldn’t have known that he was looking for an Elspeth. Instead, I would have had to approach him like this: “Hey, wanna trade?”

Which approach do you think is going to gain me more value?

Analyzing people and their needs will help you build your reputation. You may want to approach your situation the same way, even if you have been going to the same store for years. Take a few weeks to visit other stores and hang with the people. Also, take time to hang with people that you don’t usually get to hang with at your store. This will introduce you to the scene.

Stocking the Binder

Once you gain the reputation as the guy who has everything, you have to start figuring out what to stock and what not to stock. When I first started dealing cards, I used to buy a case or two of every new set. It seemed like the logical thing to do for me to maintain my role as the premier underground supplier. The problem with this method is that after you open all the product, you end up with a ton of bulk, which doesn’t further your goal as a trader. Bulk is not bad, but only when you are buying it for pennies, not when you are busting it out of packs!

To avoid generating waste, what I have been doing with each new set is trading for the cards that I speculate will be in demand. This is where analysis is important. If a card is hyped, does it really have what it takes to sustain its pricetag? If it won’t sustain its pricetag, then you have to dump the cards for a card that will. To make proper analysis about the future of cards, you need to understand how people think, and you also have to know your stuff when it comes to playing Magic in different formats. This is what I was referring to when I said that you need to understand the “ultimate truth which encapsulates your audience.” If someone says, “Grave Titan is the best card ever,” you need to be able to distinguish that as either truth or emotion. Both drive prices, but one sustains price and the other does not.

A card doesn’t have to be good to be worth money. A good recent example of this is Time Reversal. This card was hyped from the beginning, and the fact that it was a higher-cost reprint of a Power Nine card made people believe that it could be awesome; emotion was fueling the price of this card upon release. Now that the truth has been found, the price of the card has taken a nosedive. The truth about the card is that in the current card pool of Standard and Extended, there is no place for it. In Legacy, the only place where the card might actually be reasonable, there is already a card that does the same thing for one less mana: Diminishing Returns.

Let’s look at the flip side of this: Primeval Titan. Primeval Titan enjoyed a lot of hype when it was spoiled. The difference is that this card’s hype is well deserved. It passes the test that I put all new cards through when I examine them for longevity. When I analyze a card from a new set, I ask myself at least these questions.

What rarity is the card? I have written in length about the value shift from rare to mythic rares in the past. The basic gist is that rares do not carry the value that they used to, and that mythic rares fill the role as the big money cards. Furthermore, it’s not typical for a new rare to break the $10 mark unless it sees play in multiple formats. Examples of this include Noble Hierarch, Knight of the Reliquary, and the latest addition, Fauna Shaman. This rule has its exceptions, i.e. Maelstrom Pulse, but it’s pretty accurate. If the card that I am evaluating is a rare, I put a $10 cap on it unless I think it will see play in multiple formats; in that case, I put a $20 cap on it. If the card is mythic rare, then the cap is currently $80, a position which is occupied by Jace, the Mind Sculptor, the gold standard for mythic rares.

Will the card see play in multiple formats? I talked a little about this above. The more formats in which the card sees play, the more potential it has to carry a higher price tag. This question spawns other questions, which can help me get a more accurate idea of what a card could be worth. Some of the questions that I might ask are: What is the role of this card in existing archetypes? Does it perform better than cards that already fill that role? Will the card spawn a new archetype? Cards that spawn a new archetype quickly become high-demand commodities. A good example of this is Bloodbraid Elf.

Does the card have casual appeal? Cards like planeswalkers, dragons, angels, and now vampires all have casual appeal. If a card falls into one of those categories, or has an effect that casual players desire, the card will carry more value. An example of an effect is a card like Doubling Season. The casual demand for this card still keeps its price high.

Naturally, any one of these questions can lead you down a path of a million more questions, but these are the basic ones that will help you measure the future demand of a card. Let’s use these basic questions to glimpse into the future of Primeval Titan.

What is the Rarity? Primeval titan is a Mythic Rare, which means that it has the highest potential to rise in price among all other rarities.

Will this card see play in other formats? I can definitely see Primeval Titan seeing play the new Extended format, and it has already become a role player in Standard. If this card breaks the barrier and sees play in Legacy as well, then it could rise to Jace levels in terms of pricing. Will that happen? I don’t think so. When I think of the current archetypes in Legacy, the only place that I could see this card fitting is in the 43 lands deck. However, it doesn’t solve the problems that the deck typically has, which is a weakness to combo. If you consider it as a finisher, you then have to compare with other options that are available, like Knight of the Reliquary. Without doing a full synopsis, I don’t see the Titan being a mainstay in the 43 Lands deck, or in Legacy as a format. If I had to compare Primeval Titan to something, it would be Baneslayer Angel circa last year: it saw some play in Extended. However, it also had more casual coolness points than the Titan.

Does the card have casual appeal? It’s a big Green creature that does something cool when it enters the battlefield and when it attacks. It definitely has casual appeal, but I wouldn’t put it in the same class of casual appeal as Baneslayer Angel.

Using the first three questions, we can expect Primeval Titan to reach pretty close to pre M11 Baneslayer pricing once it starts seeing play in the new Extended. You can apply these questions to any card to try to determine future pricing, and it’s always good to find cards and patterns that exist against which to compare your observations, just like I did with Diminishing Returns and Baneslayer Angel. Let’s look at a couple more mythic rares that I have my eye on for post rotation price spikes.

Jace, The Mind Sculptor: I know that you don’t want to hear this, but this card is positioned for a post rotation price spike. I cannot keep these in my binder no matter what I do. It sees play in every format, and it has massive casual appeal. With Bloodbraid Elf and Blightning rotating, Jace is going to shape the upcoming Standard season. The demand will rise even more and, baring a reprint or banning, the price will continue to climb. Not to mention that there are Legacy and Vintage players now looking to acquire their playset.

Vengevine: Heading into rotation, Vengevine is one of the best answers to Jace, the Mind Sculptor. If Bloodbraid Elf can become a $5 uncommon, I can only imagine what Vengevine can do. It’s already seen significant play in Standard, and now it’s seeing play in Legacy. If Vengevine performs well at another Legacy event, then we can expect the demand to increase and the price to climb. I think it’s a given that it will also see significant play in Extended.

Lotus Cobra: This suffered from IHS (Initial Hype Syndrome), and as a result it seen a serious nosedive in price. After being gun-shy, the Magic community gave the little cobra another chance, and it turns out that the card is pretty good after all. The price has been steadily climbing with the popularization of Mythic, and the Cobra has been finding his way into Jund , Naya, and Turbo Land decks in Standard. It will no doubt be a role player in the New Extended, and I think it has Legacy potential.

Eldrazi Monument: This card performed well at the beginning of the Standard season, then again in Block Constructed. I expect to see this in decklists post rotation. This also has what it takes to see play in the New Extended format.

All is Dust: StarCityGames.com is sold out of these at $12.99 at the time of writing. This is another card that I can’t keep in my binder. As ramp decks and Eldrazi control decks grow in popularly, the demand for this will grow. It has the EDH vote, and the possibility to creep into New Extended.

Abyssal Persecutor: Ever since local superstar Rocky Harris started running this in his Jund deck, I have had my eye on this card. The drawback is really easy to play around, and a 6/6 flying trampler that costs four mana is just too good to ignore. This has seen fringe play in Extended, Legacy, and Vintage. I think once people get past the stigma that Abyssal Persecutor is lame, this will see more play. I think it has what it takes to be a money mythic, if it could only find a deck in which to perform.

Today, we talked about the importance of learning to analyze people and cards. I hope that you will spend some time at your local shops getting to know the people and their needs. Don’t forget to do your homework and analyze the cards that you are backing. Don’t accept hype for face value when you are investing in cards for the long term. Imagine if I listened to all those kids who called me loser for wearing Air Zebras without analyzing the situation… I wouldn’t be the bad mo’ fo that I am today. Also, I wouldn’t have a fat binder with the goods.

That’s all I have this week. Thanks for reading, and see you in the forums!

Jonathan Medina
@mtgmetagame on Twitter