The title of this article is referring to my financial “calls.” I know that’s a bit cocky but it’s also true. The things that I’ve been saying have been hitting their mark like the hands of clock, always on time like Timely Reinforcements against Mono Red. I know that some of you hate arrogance and you probably want to throw a shoe at your computer screen, but hear me out.
I have been questioning myself lately.
Whenever I do something, there’s a drive that awakes in me to do it with an overwhelming passion. I want to demolish the obstacles that keep me from being the best and claim my place on the top of the hill. Okay, maybe this is a character flaw. Maybe my dad pounded too much machismo into my psyche when my young mind was forming. Whatever the reason is, this desire burns in me. This attitude forces me to be introspective and test myself. Every time I make a call, I track it. Did I get there? Did I misplay? When doing this for last week I was pumped to see these calls come to life.
Let me show you what that means in dollars. We will review the calls of last week and I’ll throw in some comments here and there.
Dungrove Elder $3.99
Engage
Price Now: $5.99
+$2
(I’m not sure If this can get much higher. Don’t be greedy. Ship these.)
Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon $9.99
Engage
Price Now: $9.99
+$0
Inkmoth Nexus $14.99
Engage
Price Now: $15.99
+$1
Lashwrithe $3.99
Do Not Engage
Price Now: $3.99 (Sold Out)
+$0
(Sold out? These are up to $2.50 on eBay. This might be due for an increase, but we shouldn’t chase it.)
Gavony Township $3.99
Engage (This card is only a pickup if you can get it for the perceived value $2)
Price Now: $3.49
+$1.49 (If you traded for these at $2)
(I’m sure that I’ll get some comments on this one, because it says “Engage” and had a price decrease. My comments on the card were correct, so this can be show in one of two ways. Either you made $1.49 or saved .49 by not “Engaging” at $3.99.)
Elspeth Tirel $19.99
Engage
Price Now: $24.99
+$5
Blade Splicer $4.99
Do Not Engage
Price Now: $4.99
+$0
Hero of Bladehold $14.99
Do Not Engage
Price Now: $14.99
+$0
(I talk about this one more below.)
Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas $19.99
Do Not Engage
Price Now: $17.99
+$2
Batterskull $12.99
Engage
Price Now: 14.99
+$2
(This card isn’t done going up yet.)
Snapcaster Mage $29.99
Do Not Engage
Price Now: $29.99
+$0
(I feel like I’m having a staring contest with the price of this card. Do Something!)
Candelabra of Tawnos $299.99
Do Not Engage
Price Now: $299.99
+$0
Past In Flames $7.99
Do Not Engage (Yet)
Price Now: $5.99
+$2
(The price is getting low enough that we might want to “Engage” this. It would be a no-brainer if it was $3.99, so we’re getting close.)
Spoils of the Vault $1.99
Engage
Price Now: $1.99
+$0
Flusterstorm $11.99
Engage
Price Now: $11.99
+$0
(See below for details on what’s really going on with this card.)
If you acquired one of each card that I said to “Engage” and if you stayed away from the cards that I told you to stay away from then you did well this week. I separated the value representation into two numbers. The amount that you would have earned by engaging certain cards and the amount you would have saved by passing on certain cards, this is based on a 1x multiplier, if you bought/traded for 4x of each card then you would have gained four times the number below.
Value Earned: $11.49
Value Saved: $4
Value Lost: $0 (Obv)
I’ve also included a “Value Lost” section, this is more for the sick brags than for any functional use. Alright, enough about last week. Let’s talk about this week.
So What’s Changed?
Last week at card shops all over the world many were killed by this man.
I even sleeved up the deck for a local tournament, but quickly unsleeved it because of how dirty I felt casting the green devil. Wolf Run variants are ravaging our metagame like a spreading sickness, but the situation is not hopeless. The SCG Open results from Kansas City showcased some strong options for battling Wolf Run.
Tempered Steel
Ari Lax has been championing the army of tiny robots for a while in Standard. His build is one of the more intelligent builds that I’ve seen. He Top 8ed SCG Kansas City and the Deck and his deck list looks much like the one that he wrote about here. Based on the top 8 appearance and the decent matchup that the deck has against Wolf Run, I expect to see more of this deck in the future.
Mox Opal $24.99
Popularity: High
Perceived Value: Low $20
Synopsis: This card is a multi-format staple and it’s a Mythic Rare. These two facts alone mean that it’s going to maintain value. It also means that it’s good to have these in your trade binder, but the problem is that you’re not going find any cheap. So you need to make the decision to stock these based on the opportunity value and not the financial value. What I mean by that, is that you might want them in your binder because other people want them and every opportunity to trade is an opportunity to gain value.
Action: Do not Engage
Hero Of Bladehold $14.99
Popularity: High
Perceived Value: Accurate $15
Synopsis: Ari Lax didn’t like my call on this card last week. He’s been playing the card and he thinks that it might be too good for its $15 price tag. I always take what pro players say about a cards value with a grain of salt, because typically they are measuring the card by the playability and not by other financial factors. In this case, I think that Ari may be right about Hero being due for a bump. The meta is shifting and Hero is seeing a lot of play in many different decks including, W/x Tokens, Tempered Steel, and U/W Humans (we are going to talk about this deck in a moment). With U/W Humans being on the rise and after we got to watch Ari Hero his opponent’s faces on SCG Live, I could see it getting the bump to $20. I don’t want to tempt fate for another week, so I’ll shift gears here and give the “Engage” call.
Action: Engage
Tempered Steel $3.99
Popularity: Low
Perceived Value: High $6
Synopsis: This card has been on the decline since people asked themselves, “Why are we paying $6 for an artifact anthem?” The price memory of Tempered Steel is stuck on $5-$6 ,so if you have them try to ship them now at $4 because people some people will think that you’re offering a bargain and most people can’t pass up a bargain. If you wait until the perceived value is $4, then you have to fight the lack of demand and ask for “retail” while doing it. You might expect a price increase on this card because of the Top 8 appearance, but the supply is too plentiful at the moment to justify a price increase. You can see this by checking around at a bunch of online stores and checking Ebay.
Action: Do Not Engage
U/W Humans
Patrick Chapin once wrote about “The Hive Mind” of Magic. This is the perfectly oiled machine that grinds perfectly tuned decks out of each format. A lot of this grinding happens on Magic Online. The day that I discovered the “What’s Happening” page was the day that my crystal ball got a little clearer. If you click on the results from last Friday’s daily events, you’re going to see a couple of decks that look like this.
Creatures (26)
- 4 Mirran Crusader
- 3 Hero of Bladehold
- 4 Accorder Paladin
- 1 Phyrexian Metamorph
- 4 Grand Abolisher
- 4 Champion of the Parish
- 2 Geist of Saint Traft
- 4 Doomed Traveler
Lands (12)
Spells (22)
This deck started as a fringe deck that casual players built for funsies, but it’s been polished into a weapon of destruction by the Magic Online Grinders. This deck looks to have a great Wolf Run matchup and it’s pretty well positioned in the meta. I expect to see a lot more of it throughout the season. I don’t usually play aggro decks but I was really excited to see this deck break on the scene, and here’s why…
Angelic Destiny: $7.49
As a control player, I would never play this card. I have fewer than ten creatures in pretty much every deck that I play (except my Commander deck). I really don’t like this card personally, but its power cannot be denied. I only get about halfway through when reading the text before I cringe; it sounds like this…
Creature gets +4/+4…
has flying…
and basically I’m dead.
This is the kind of card that can just take off if it finds the right deck. It really helps you get the most out of your value creatures, and if you pair it with Squadron Hawk, then things can get ugly for your opponent.
Popularity: Mid-High
Perceived Value: High $8
Synopsis: If it finds the right deck, this card can easily hit $15. If you play aggro, then you should pick these up at $7.
Action: Engage
I got a lot of crap for my previous evaluation, like this message.
With the success that this U/W Humans deck is seeing, it’s looking like the $15 mark is a lock. Let’s talk about the cards that make this deck tick.
Angelic Destiny $11.99
Popularity: Medium
Perceived Value: Low $10
Synopsis: This card is one way to put a tremendous clock on the Wolf Run variants. If you didn’t pick these up at $7.49, then the play is to pick them up this week at the trade tables, then ship them when they hit $15+.
Action: Engage
Champion of the Parish $4.99
Popularity: High
Perceived Value: High $6
Synopsis: Ship these guys hard. He does good stuff in the human deck but he doesn’t have longevity. He’s already at $5, so let’s pretend that we think it might go up. How high is this supposed to get? This is a creature that will only see play in Standard and will only see play in a Humans based strategy. Even from a strategic stand point if this isn’t the turn one play, doesn’t it just suck? In what world is this a $6+ card? If it gets that high, it’s because WU Humans is the best deck in the format.
Action: Do Not Engage
Geist of Saint Traft $19.99
Popularity: High
Perceived Value: Accurate $20
Synopsis: This card is over priced. There are too many ground creature to make this card profitable. I expect to see this start to fall out of flavor over the next few months. I wouldn’t be surprised if someday I see a $7.99 price tag on this card while it’s in Standard. If you have these ship them now. Mirran Crusader is miles better and even Blade Splicer is probably better. With so much competition in the three-mana spot, Geist is just getting out-classed.
Action: Do Not Engage
So Many Insane Plays
This phrase might sound familiar If you’ve been a long time Star City Games reader. It used to be the column name for Vintage Enthusiast Stephen Menendian. That column contributed to my getting into Vintage, which got me into Pimping, which in turn got me into Trading. It’s funny how that sequence of events developed:
I want to play an insane format!
I can’t afford it.
I should learn to trade.
I learned.
Total World Domination.
And that brings us to today.
Being a fan of the column, I decided to shoot over to MTG Cast and give Steve’s podcast some ear time. Despite the fact that the cast is about an hour of Steve and Kevin Cron patting each other on the back and taking turns listening to each other talk, it had some good information. Steve and Kevin are two of the biggest Vintage voices in the community. When they’re excited about a card, you can be sure that the card will have an impact in Vintage.
Vintage has a very unique effect on cards. It doesn’t usually have an effect on the price of non-foil cards but it will amplify the price of foils, especially right after the set release. Vintage is the birthplace of the pimp culture that has been growing in the Magic community. Vintage players are serious about making their decks as unique and as awesome as possible.
Jace, the Mind Sculptor is a good example of this. The normal price for a Jace is $59.99 but the foil Price is $199.99. Jace is only legal in Vintage and EDH so how can we account for the foil being almost four times the price? Vintage (as well as legacy to some extent) drives this price. Let’s look at the cards that were featured on the, “So Many Insane Plays” podcast.
Snapcaster Mage $29.99
Yep, this guy again! This card is not only good in Legacy, (it’s better than Dark Confidant according to Drew Levin) but it’s also a powerhouse in Vintage. The So Many Insane Plays duo gushed (ha ha get it?) about how powerful Snapcaster is in the format. The podcast makes it clear that we can expect decks in Vintage to start sporting four copies of Snapcaster Mage. Financially this means that Foil Snapcaster Mages are going to behave like much like Jace, the Mind Sculptor foils. Non-foil versions can fall in price but the foils will still maintain a value close to its current $69.99. I don’t suspect that it’ll drop below $50 unless something drastic happens (like it gets the Banhammer). What Does This Mean? It means that Foil Snapcaster Mages are a better investment than regular Snapcaster Mage, and it also means that you gain Infinite if you make the old “two-for-one” trade.
Flusterstorm $11.99 (Out of Stock)
I talked about this card last week and the window is closing to pick these up at a good price. They are already sold out on Star City Games and other online vendors have bumped their price up to $18. It looks like Ebay is also trending toward $20. See below.
This is another card that Steve and Kevin really like in Vintage. The fact that it splits the counter spell into multiple copies makes traditional countermagic like Force of Will bad against it. I expect this card to start seeing more main deck love in Legacy. There’s a slight window to pick these up on the cheap, but I expect it to be $25+ before too long. The other interesting aspect here is the value of a “pimp” version of this card. They don’t make foils so the coolest one that you can get it a Japanese one. Those are currently listed at $44.99 (again, close to four times the value).
Shout Outs
I hope you guys enjoyed this article. I will try to dig a little deeper and give you something different next week.
Shout out to Stony Silence for being a sweet super secret pickup.
Shout out to Gavin Verhey for living the dream and making it to the greener pastures of employment at Wizards of the Coast.
Shout out to Ari Lax for looking super bored on camera while he crushes his opponents mercilessly.
Shout out to my GB Brew and the fact that I get to cast Phyrexian Rager!
Shout out to Evan Erwin and the countless hours of entertainment he provided me via the Magic Show (RIP).
Thanks for reading.
Jonathan